Is it getting harder to upgrade??
Mar 27, 2019, 4:33 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 282
Is it getting harder to upgrade??
until 4-5 years ago, I used to fly between ORD and NRT a couple of times a year, and I've never had issues with an upgrade, then I stopped flying for a while.
Last year I had opportunities to fly this route couple times again, and none of my upgrades went through. I never held status, so the only thing I can think of is the upgrade availability got worsened. Anyone had the same experience??
Last year I had opportunities to fly this route couple times again, and none of my upgrades went through. I never held status, so the only thing I can think of is the upgrade availability got worsened. Anyone had the same experience??
Mar 27, 2019, 4:57 pm
#3
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Dallas
Programs: AA Executive Platinum
Posts: 591
until 4-5 years ago, I used to fly between ORD and NRT a couple of times a year, and I've never had issues with an upgrade, then I stopped flying for a while.
Last year I had opportunities to fly this route couple times again, and none of my upgrades went through. I never held status, so the only thing I can think of is the upgrade availability got worsened. Anyone had the same experience??
Last year I had opportunities to fly this route couple times again, and none of my upgrades went through. I never held status, so the only thing I can think of is the upgrade availability got worsened. Anyone had the same experience??
Mar 27, 2019, 4:59 pm
#4
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,673
What changed was that priority on the upgrade list changed to those who have spent the most over the previous 12 months, whereas it used to be driven by when you requested the upgrade.
I doubt that the probability of someone receiving an upgrade has changed much, but the probability of a specific person (you, for example, or me, or anyone else reading this) has definitely changed (and gone up for some and down for others).
I doubt that the probability of someone receiving an upgrade has changed much, but the probability of a specific person (you, for example, or me, or anyone else reading this) has definitely changed (and gone up for some and down for others).
Mar 27, 2019, 5:06 pm
#5
Original Poster
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 282
What changed was that priority on the upgrade list changed to those who have spent the most over the previous 12 months, whereas it used to be driven by when you requested the upgrade.
I doubt that the probability of someone receiving an upgrade has changed much, but the probability of a specific person (you, for example, or me, or anyone else reading this) has definitely changed (and gone up for some and down for others).
I doubt that the probability of someone receiving an upgrade has changed much, but the probability of a specific person (you, for example, or me, or anyone else reading this) has definitely changed (and gone up for some and down for others).
Sounds like the program got really bad for someone like me who's just sitting on a bunch of miles.
Mar 27, 2019, 5:07 pm
#6
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: RDU
Posts: 2,264
Also, on the whole, there's fewer premium cabin seats in the international fleet than several years ago. In 2018/2019 alone, we've lost hundreds of business class seats with the refitting of some 772's and the 788's. Which means each day there's probably ~300 fewer seats for paid J class or upgrades. That's over 100k/year.
If we assume there are 250k-300k SWU's doled out annually, that's a big number of premium seats taken out of the mix.
(numbers above are for illustrative purposes... but I assume I'm within reasonable margin of error).
If we assume there are 250k-300k SWU's doled out annually, that's a big number of premium seats taken out of the mix.
(numbers above are for illustrative purposes... but I assume I'm within reasonable margin of error).
Mar 27, 2019, 5:14 pm
#7
Original Poster
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 282
Also, on the whole, there's fewer premium cabin seats in the international fleet than several years ago. In 2018/2019 alone, we've lost hundreds of business class seats with the refitting of some 772's and the 788's. Which means each day there's probably ~300 fewer seats for paid J class or upgrades. That's over 100k/year.
If we assume there are 250k-300k SWU's doled out annually, that's a big number of premium seats taken out of the mix.
(numbers above are for illustrative purposes... but I assume I'm within reasonable margin of error).
If we assume there are 250k-300k SWU's doled out annually, that's a big number of premium seats taken out of the mix.
(numbers above are for illustrative purposes... but I assume I'm within reasonable margin of error).
Mar 27, 2019, 5:24 pm
#8
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,819
We are also in a boom period economically. A lot of companies have no trouble with booking business class for one or more of portions of TPAC and TATL crossings.
Mar 27, 2019, 5:36 pm
#10
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Programs: AA Executive Platinum/Million Miler, Marriott Titanium Elite-Lifetime, Hilton Gold
Posts: 3,219
And, all of the airlines are selling reasonable advance purchase F and J fares, so many are just starting to book F/J in lieu of playing upgrade roulette.
Mar 27, 2019, 5:39 pm
#11
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 44,625
772 2 class has 45 business
vs
772-3 class has 37 business plus 24 premium economy = 61
77W has 8 1st , 52 business and 28 premium economy = 88
778 2 class 28 business
vs
778 3-class 20 business plus 28 premium economy = 48
789 has 30 business plus 21 premium economy = 51
Still seems a large number of premium seats being offered , though some movement from business to premium economy - PE seems to be reported to be a cabin with very good returns for airlines
Mar 27, 2019, 5:48 pm
#12
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
I think the major driver here for the OP’s route is AA’s downsized ORD-NRT schedule. In the past the flight operated daily now it’s just three times a week. This causes higher number of customers who are seeking an upgrade onto the same flight as opposed to being a bit more spread out over the week.
Last edited by golfingboy; Mar 27, 2019 at 10:11 pm
Mar 27, 2019, 5:58 pm
#13
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: RDU
Posts: 2,264
The numbers don't supprt this asserion from what I can see ( assuming seatguru is accurate )
772 2 class has 45 business
vs
772-3 class has 37 business plus 24 premium economy = 61
77W has 8 1st , 52 business and 28 premium economy = 88
778 2 class 28 business
vs
778 3-class 20 business plus 28 premium economy = 48
789 has 30 business plus 21 premium economy = 51
Still seems a large number of premium seats being offered , though some movement from business to premium economy - PE seems to be reported to be a cabin with very good returns for airlines
772 2 class has 45 business
vs
772-3 class has 37 business plus 24 premium economy = 61
77W has 8 1st , 52 business and 28 premium economy = 88
778 2 class 28 business
vs
778 3-class 20 business plus 28 premium economy = 48
789 has 30 business plus 21 premium economy = 51
Still seems a large number of premium seats being offered , though some movement from business to premium economy - PE seems to be reported to be a cabin with very good returns for airlines
Mar 27, 2019, 6:03 pm
#14
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: South Park, Metropolis
Programs: AA LT PLT 3MM, Hilton/Marriott/SPG/Club Carlson GLD, IHG PLT
Posts: 4,608
until 4-5 years ago, I used to fly between ORD and NRT a couple of times a year, and I've never had issues with an upgrade, then I stopped flying for a while.
Last year I had opportunities to fly this route couple times again, and none of my upgrades went through. I never held status, so the only thing I can think of is the upgrade availability got worsened. Anyone had the same experience??
Last year I had opportunities to fly this route couple times again, and none of my upgrades went through. I never held status, so the only thing I can think of is the upgrade availability got worsened. Anyone had the same experience??
Mar 27, 2019, 6:07 pm
#15
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: PHL, NYC
Programs: AA PLT, DL SLV, UA SLV, MR LTT, HH DIA
Posts: 10,073
But as has been reported, the upgrade priority has changed in the past few years. Having no status puts you behind basically anyone else with status who requested one with an instrument or points. If you were requesting your upgrades well in advance, you would have been on higher on the list than a CK or EXPlt member who requested it a week before the flight.