PBIGuy

From an industry-wide perspective, there should be exactly as many premium seats on any aircraft as there are people willing to pay for them. Now getting people to pay for them is the trick...and AA hasn't been helping themselves in that department lately.

USFlyerUS

How so? I can find lots of reasonable F and J fares in many markets these days.

BlatheringPenguin

And, given they don't reconfigure planes on the fly, or have many different configurations of the same plane, a la a period I recall of MD-80's intentionally having something like 4 or 5 different first class sizes, there will sometimes be flights where they don't have a first/business class seat to sell to the last-minute passenger willing to pay full fare. I'm starting to see that on some of my international routes where it's J0 (and no open seats on the map) even a few weeks out from flight date.

tomj888

I believe the future with any airline especially legacy airlines is that your money or miles will talk. Waiting for any kind of an upgrade will be like "waiting for Godot" I just came back from Hawaii and almost fainted when my upgrade processed. Especially as I was traveling with my girlfriend who has NO status. Those days are fewer and fewer.

scubadu

Ummm... yes.

Regards

enviroian

sure is! I'm at a 30% upgrade rate this year, $18K rolling EQD.

fastflyer

1 for 22 is horrible for Plat Pro (as indicated in your tag). I'm running around 80% last year and current year, down from 85% two years ago and 90%+ several years ago. I am EXP with 20k EQDs annually. If there is a near-sold-out route where I know I want to sit up front (like a transcon), I use alternate methods (mainly BXP1s) to confirm. If I include those alternate methods in my calculation, I am still above 85%, but without those, I have a lot of the "whatever" short-hop flights with a 30-person upgrade list, and my average is around 80%. Additionally, AA has lately been blocking the middle seat when I am in coach, which, combined with a drink and snack, is an acceptable substitution.

I frequently travel on a peak day, 900-mile leg with a work colleague who is Plat Pro, and he is running around 60% on that routing (Thursday and Sunday evenings, CLT-MCI-CLT). I would switch airlines if I was flying 75k miles per year and batting less than 10% upgrades. In fact, I would switch below 50%. That's just a horrible rate.

BTW, some hubs are much easier than others for domestic upgrades. For me PHX, MIA, and PHL are easier than CLT. DFW is the hardest.

enviroian

Honestly I can't remember the last flight where it wasn't completely zeroed out across the board.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

I assume the bulk of elites are traveling business and travel at business traveler hours hence why usually only the high spenders are getting the upgrades. In theory that is the way the system is suppose to work, just a few F seats available to those spending enough money in Y to enhance their experience. It's the sign of the times with the US3. Now if you do a lot of late afternoon, evening Saturday traveling like I do the chances greatly increase.

enviroian

Spot on and I agree completely. The old days are long gone and the high spenders are enjoying the upgrades they (rightfully) deserve. Notice I wasn't complaining--it is what it is. I'm fine in an exit row seat or bulkhead Oasis or otherwise.

MarkOK

Thanks for the sympathy. Unfortunately, all of my routes go through DFW as my home airport only flies there and I am spoiled by the convenience of that airport to negate quickly any benefit of driving to other airports. Also, I am often going to larger cities that seem elite heavy (--- failed upgrades were DFW -- DCA/IAD, 2xBOS, LGA, MSP, ORD, PHX, 2xMIA, ATL and the returns -- almost all on A320/21s or 738s. MSP was the closest call but not cigar, and I thought MIA had no chance one way on a 772 because of a full seat map, but then something like 14 upgrades cleared at T-30 minutes from what I am guessing were misconnects on a stormy day in DFW, but I was at number 20sh so again no luck). My one upgrade was DFW-MSY on a mad-dog; the return for whatever reason had at least 40 on the upgrade list and I was 20sh with a full seat map. A couple of years ago, I got an upgrade on a DFW-MSY without even gold status when they had to roll up the cabin due to overbooked Y. Frustratingly, I think I would have cleared a DFW-RNO and return Saturday flights last summer if I wasn't on an award ticket.
My DFW commuter flight is on a ERJ140 -- so no upgrades there of course. I am jealous of the small airports (i.e. JLN) that have at least one flight a day with a two cabin regional.

I think I did benefit last week from a seat blockage when I was in seat F, and a CK was seated in seat D (bulkhead row in economy) -- seat E was empty and the plane was pretty much full.

fastflyer

Those are all difficult upgrades even for EXP, except (and as you noted), DFW-MSP.

DFW-DCA, DFW-BOS, DFW-LGA are all meal flights, so you have more people who will simply pay for F. And DFW-ORD, DFW-PHX, and DFW-MIA are Hub-to-Hub flights (so up to twice the potential audience of high-status elites as usual). I do a lot of travelling from an airport in the same region (MCI), and if I route through DFW my upgrade rate drops significantly.

If it's important to you, opt for the "long, skinny" routes like OKC-PHL or TUL-LAX for better odds, then do your connection as a short hop (likely in coach) from PHL or LAX. You may see a big improvement in upgrade percentages. Although AA doesn't always offer the following routings, when they have, I've batted 100% with MCI-PHL, MCI-LGA, MCI-MIA, and MCI-LAX.

AA100k

TravelLawyer

I want to challenge your assumption. OP hasn't flown in a few years. US and AA merged within that time. The sheer number of elites have increased significantly yet certain routes didn't increase proportionately in frequency. Hence, the probability of someone receiving an upgrade on any particular route has changed (decreased) significantly.