Since nothing here is based on fact, I'm going the other way. AA will reduce the price of Y awards to make room for PE at the current Y price. J will remain the same. If they raise J, they'll drop the YQ to match UA.

Sorry for being cynical, but I always expect the very worst from AA post-merger, so it's hard not to be cynical. Of course, since it IS a speculation thread, all speculation is fair game until March. :D

Maybe, maybe not. AA/BA does a bigger TATL business than UA or DL. If they lead on this, then you can bet the others follow. As it is, AA charges for BE even when their lowest fare is higher than an LCCC.

It didn't actually start out that way-- it was an intelligent question (the OP's) and highly informed answer to same (mine.)

All I saw was "Rumor" at the top, which is FT lingo for speculation thread, so my apologies. :)

Yep, it's a hard news thread.

Fair enough, appreciated, but at the same time you end up enabling detritus like this:

Not everyone here is able to keep up, in other words.

Admittedly, most of the initial posts were wild speculation. Even though I am not an AA insider like you, my speculation was a little closer to the reality that AA and BA have been playing monkey-see, monkey-do ever since they entered into JV. Sure, we won't get a flight from PIT-HND anytime soon, but diluting TATL redemptions sounds right up Discount Dougie's alley given the fact that he's cheapened nearly every other aspect of the programme except for the Admiral Clubs.

And that is when AA looks like UA as far as upgrades, and I say bye bye.

So, Jon (or anyone else with an intelligent instinct, but especially Jon!) -- I'm ready to book an award to Venice in October (on 332, so with PE). Only Y available for my dates with miles, and I'd pay for MCE. Should I hold off for a bit to see if PE is available soon with miles? Or just book now while I can? If I pay cash fee for MCE, and then I'm later able add miles to move up to PE, would I get my MCE fees back? Any knowledge that PE won't be available for Oct flights to Europe, etc? Any advice is very much appreciated!

If you book an award economy ticket now and then change it to a Premium Economy award ticket later , you would just have to pay the mileage difference ( and any tax difference )

I would book what you can now and then see if PE becomes an offered award and whether there is any availability

If availability seems like it might go away very soon, might be safest to book now.
But it's not 100% clear how AA will handle the anticipated potential flood of people that might be looking to suddenly change from held economy awards to new PE awards (at the very moderate mileage up-charge for same,) so, if you can give it a couple days, might be worth it to wait. Again, only if you feel some confidence that you won't lose the economy awards by waiting (and all this assuming the rollout isn't delayed.)

IIRC, the terms and conditions of the MCE purchase are that they are, in fact, refundable if you “pay to upgrade cabin class.”
I’m not 100% certain that a mileage/copay upgrade qualifies as such, but I read it that way (and am in the process of seeking such a refund.) Arguably cancelling and redeeming a higher-class reward is a different ballgame, so I’d probably say caveat emptor in the absence of more specific data points.

Once again, the best takeaway from this thread is the creative use of language like "detritus" by JonNYC.

Also, bring on the PE award chart, at whatever level it is. ^