This week's flights:

DEN-ORD, 738, Tuesday morning - cleared at 100 hours [ended up moving day-of to an earlier delayed flight to avoid a potential misconnect, and sat in a exit row aisle, so did not actually fly this one]

ORD-DCA, 738, Tuesday afternoon - cleared at around 10 hours prior to flight

DCA-DFW, A321, Friday afternoon, cleared at 100 hours

DFW-DEN, A321, Friday evening, cleared at 100+ hours (same time as the prior segment)

Probably around 20K rolling EQD at this point.
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So I'm counting that as 3/3.

I'm sure someone will be along to tell me that upgrades never clear in advance; it's impossible to clear upgrades to/from DFW; upgrades only clear at off-peak times on non-business travel days; that I clear upgrades only because I fly from Denver; or some other nonsense.

As someone who will be a first-time ExPlat soon but with low EQD, I wonder how much your EQD number is a factor—i.e., are you often beating out other lower-EQD ExPlats or mostly non-ExPlats?

No real way of knowing that. I don't feel like 20K is a particularly high number or a particularly low one either. But that's just a "feeling" - I don't have any data about the status levels of people below me on the lists.

I've noticed no material change in my upgrade success rate compared to what it was it before the changeover to the EQD ranking system.

Thanks.

Same, I don't think I've ever missed an upgrade on JFK-MIA except when I do a same-day change and J is already full.

Hi experts-
i have a mileage upgrade request for flight 533 SJD-PHX and flight 891 PHX-ORD on Sunday, 9.15. I’m most interested in the Phoenix-Chicago flight, and the cost to upfare was $1700. Should I safely assume I won’t clear as this probably means inventory is very low?
thanks so much!

Right now, SJD-PHX is sold out in business and PHX-ORD is J2, so still hope on that one.

As a PLT on a hub-to-hub on a popular business travel day at a popular business travel time? Very doubtful, to be honest.

AA 94 (JFK-MAD) upgrade Y->J for two people using Miles + Copay (as EXP) cleared ~30 hours before.
I received the alert from EF, then called AA to process the upgrade.
Still 100% success rate on TATL upgrades this year (6/6).

Are there any long distance routes where AA usually has C space available? Asia, Europe, or anything. I've a few left that will expire in January, and looking for opportunities to spend them for a weekend trip.
Already checked the routes to PVG without much luck from October - January. I would like to avoid gambling and if at all possible clear it at booking. Forfeiting the upgrades is less painful than 12 hours Y...

No. AA doesn't release any valuable C space on long distance routes until 36-48 hours before departure and therefore makes it very hard to plan long-distance vacations (even if the seat map is empty and ExpertFlyer shows >J7). You can certainly find readily available C space on a short-haul American Eagle flight though!