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-   -   ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1949552-archive-chances-upgrade-clearing-availability-2019-master-thread.html)

Dad to Rei Jul 30, 2019 4:54 pm


Originally Posted by Avocados (Post 31359961)
I've been a long time lurker on this forum; figured it's time to contribute now that I've achieved some very minor status with AA. Attained Gold in mid-June and wanted to provide my upgrade stats for some data points; I believe this is the correct thread. In general, I have to say I am surprised by how much success I've had as a Gold after reading through so many tales of upgrade woe, even for EPs. Though to be fair, two of these I technically used a companion's platinum status being booked on their reservation, if I understand the PNR linking correctly. Overall I'm 4 of 7:

CLT - HSV on a CR7 I believe: Cleared at 24 hours
HSV - CLT, same: Cleared at 24
RDU - LGA, on an E190: Cleared at 48 hours (adopted wife's platinum status, as we booked under her account)
LGA - RDU, on an E190: Cleared at 48, same as above

My misses were PHL -RDU and RDU - CLT and the return CLT - RDU.

Thanks for adding! And welcome to FlyerTalk!

Dad to Rei Jul 30, 2019 4:57 pm

A couple of recent ones for me.

7/24 PHL - DFW - #1 & 2 on list (out of 32) for me and companion - Miss
7/24 DFW - SAF - Cleared both at T-50
7/29 SAF - DFW - Cleared both of us at gate
7/29 - DFW - PHL - #2 & 3 on list (out of 28) - Miss

I have about 30K in rolling EQD - Dallas continues to be a tough get......

remedy Aug 3, 2019 7:25 am

MAD => JFK
 
T24 upgrade. SWU from premium economy, EXP, Sunday 8/4 AA 95.

cocallaw Aug 6, 2019 3:35 pm

CLT-LHR
 
Plat in CLT going to LHR 9/7-9/14. Considering flying CLT-RDU-LHR AA174 to improve my odds using miles+cash with it being a 772, 23 seats still available, booking P and EF showing J7 R7 D7 I7 W1 P1 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7 ~30 Days out

Direct from CLT to LHR are flown with 333 and have fewer seats. EF showing J7 with only 7 seats left on AA730

Any thoughts as to a better option or ways to improve?

Stripe Aug 6, 2019 5:13 pm

7/28 - AUS-DFW - Miss - #4 on list
7/28 - DFW-SNA - Miss - #3 on list
7/31 - SNA-DFW - Miss - #5 on list (this one had 11 seats open in F 10 days before departure)
7/31 - DFW-AUS - Cleared - T-100

Definitely the worst performance ever on an AA trip for me. Consolation prize on the SNA flights was exit row seats with an empty middle, so I can't complain too much.

ORDbird Aug 6, 2019 5:36 pm

ORD-ATL round trip
Both legs cleared for upgrade at T-48, using stickers.
Not really a huge deal on the shorter flight, but sharing for reference. I was still surprised it happened and so early.

iadisgreat Aug 6, 2019 6:09 pm

Monday AM MIA-DCA has become non-existent much to my chagrin. I blame August vacations to the Caribbean and the MAX grounding. Grr this was guaranteed for me on either the 7 or 8 am flights for most of the year until recently.

JJeffrey Aug 6, 2019 6:55 pm


Originally Posted by cocallaw (Post 31386965)
Plat in CLT going to LHR 9/7-9/14. Considering flying CLT-RDU-LHR AA174 to improve my odds using miles+cash with it being a 772, 23 seats still available, booking P and EF showing J7 R7 D7 I7 W1 P1 Y7 B7 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7 ~30 Days out

Direct from CLT to LHR are flown with 333 and have fewer seats. EF showing J7 with only 7 seats left on AA730

Any thoughts as to a better option or ways to improve?

Given those stats on the 2 flights I'd say going via RDU would definitely improve your chances with 7's across the board in business.

no2chem Aug 10, 2019 5:19 pm

Something must have changed with LAX-HKG perhaps due to the protests. Business class shows completely empty, yet C space never opens up, even up until the day of. Has anyone seen C space open on this route lately?

Edit, take that back, I see C space open this Monday now

lax555 Aug 11, 2019 3:08 pm


Originally Posted by no2chem (Post 31402186)
Something must have changed with LAX-HKG perhaps due to the protests. Business class shows completely empty, yet C space never opens up, even up until the day of. Has anyone seen C space open on this route lately?

Edit, take that back, I see C space open this Monday now

C seems to open up LAX-HKG at around T-36 assuming sufficient J inventory is available.

JJeffrey Aug 11, 2019 8:45 pm


Originally Posted by lax555 (Post 31404793)
C seems to open up LAX-HKG at around T-36 assuming sufficient J inventory is available.

Yep, same can be said of 90% of AA longhaul routes (C space opening up around 36 hrs before...)...

acoburn73 Aug 13, 2019 2:20 pm

Notifications coming in often from ExpertFlyer for 3-4 upgrade seats on an 8/15 DEN-ORD flight, but here we are floating up on T-48 and no EXPs have been given upgrades. I've checked a few times since the first notification over the weekend, and figured at T-100 I'd get bumped. That time came and went with no upgrades.

Quick check now and EF still shows 3 available for upgrade on this flight. Guess they'll just hold them for airport control on day-of flight.

One day we'll figure out their algorithm for upgrade clearing!

JTK Aug 14, 2019 7:33 am

I know DFW to HKG is a hard upgrade, but I am flying on 8/20. Expertflyer shows 7 in all business classes. Looking on the seat map (yes it is not accurate) is shows 15 out of 52 seats occupied. I guess I will check at t-36 to see if that is AA algorithm.

JJeffrey Aug 14, 2019 9:31 am


Originally Posted by JTK (Post 31414966)
I know DFW to HKG is a hard upgrade, but I am flying on 8/20. Expertflyer shows 7 in all business classes. Looking on the seat map (yes it is not accurate) is shows 15 out of 52 seats occupied. I guess I will check at t-36 to see if that is AA algorithm.

You have great chances...8/20 is a Tuesday (about the best day for any long haul upgrade odds), 7's across the board, and a wide open seatmap. AA still probably won't open any space up till 24-36 hrs before, but nevertheless your odds look great.

Zeromus-X Aug 15, 2019 2:00 am

Currently AA Gold, I normally fly SFO or OAK to PHX, but decided to go STS > LAX > PHX on my last trip (8/13) since each leg is < 500 miles and I'm trying to get those last segments to Platinum this year. Got upgraded on both the STS > LAX and LAX > PHX legs at T-24.


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