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Recent 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

Recent 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Jun 17, 19, 6:57 am   -   Wikipost
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This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia, respectively.

To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?


13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through 19 August 2019.

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The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.

The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.

American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".

Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.

29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link

This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.

7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.

7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.

See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.

10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.

Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.

A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.

11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.

11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.

Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)

11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)

12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.

12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.

Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article

13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html

13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.

13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.

13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:

On average, American operates 85 flights per day on the MAX 8, out of 6,700 departures throughout the American Airlines system. Our operations center is working to re-route aircraft throughout the system to cover as much of our schedule as we can.
13 March 2019: AA issues policy allowing those scheduled for 7M8 flights through April 4 to refund or change without fees for cancellations, or to make free changes to their flight plans. See the thread linked to at the top of this Wiki for a link.

14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.

15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.

Currently, AA has removed the 737 MAX 8 aircraft from scheduling through 19 August 2019. The FAA must clear the MAX before it can fly again. AA has 24 MAX 8s grounded and has canceled 115 daily flights as a result. 30 April 2019

NOTE: Thus Wikipost is locked. Please contact JDiver by PM, or use the report post to moderator button , to request changes or correct errors, etc.

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Old Mar 14, 19, 12:46 pm
  #391  
 
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"FAA Administrator Dan Elwell told reporters on Wednesday the software update will be ready within a couple of months after regulators around the world grounded the plane following a second fatal crash in the 737 MAX 8 since October."


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1QV2DC
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Old Mar 14, 19, 12:56 pm
  #392  
 
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Originally Posted by IADCAflyer View Post
"FAA Administrator Dan Elwell told reporters on Wednesday the software update will be ready within a couple of months after regulators around the world grounded the plane following a second fatal crash in the 737 MAX 8 since October."


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1QV2DC
What's the monthly payment on a MAX 8, I wonder? Probably a bit more than my Silverado.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 2:13 pm
  #393  
 
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Originally Posted by econometrics View Post
What's the monthly payment on a MAX 8, I wonder? Probably a bit more than my Silverado.
They're both american vehicles, so probably junk rates /sarcasm

My gut is that all airlines are going to request insurance reimbursement related to the losses of operational time on these jets. That's what happened with the B-787 groundings.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 2:16 pm
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Originally Posted by IADCAflyer View Post
They're both american vehicles, so probably junk rates /sarcasm.
ZING!

Nicely played.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 2:58 pm
  #395  
 
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Originally Posted by sfoeuroflyer View Post
The cockpit recordings of Lion Air show the pilots were morons who did not understand the aircraft.
I thought no details of that CVR have been released. Is that untrue? Credible speculation?
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Old Mar 14, 19, 3:12 pm
  #396  
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The BBC and other media are reporting

Boeing 737 Max aircraft grounded 'until May at least'

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47567039
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Old Mar 14, 19, 3:12 pm
  #397  
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Originally Posted by fanger View Post
I thought no details of that CVR have been released. Is that untrue? Credible speculation?
The pilots were apparently sufficiently uninformed they tried to white knuckle / fight the controls all the way. The ops manual they had (Boeing supplemented it with a Bulletin 7 Nov, Lion Air crashed 29 Oct iirc), but the solution would likely have been to disengage the control switches shown below. (The AOA / MCAS problem manifests itself while pilots are in manual flight.) The other issue is that was the fourth time in a row the aircraft flew with documented but never resolved faults.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 4:15 pm
  #398  
 
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With reports that the grounding of the 7M8 could be months, then why does AA still show 7M8 aircraft in its flight schedules such as DCA to LAX on Sat Apr 6th?

Looks like what AA did for the DCA-LAX afternoon flight yesterday was to cancel a DFW flight and fly the DCA-LAX flight with a regular 738,

Looks like AA has done the same today - cancelling flight 202 from DCA-DFW and using that aircraft for DCA-LAX. Is that going to be AA's plan. Keep 7M8 in the schedule and just cancel another flight to use its aircraft.

Starting 3/17 - AA shows 7M8 from DCA-LAX.

I guess if you now book a flight that shows 7M8 - then you have no recourse to change your flight.
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Last edited by cova; Mar 14, 19 at 4:30 pm
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Old Mar 14, 19, 5:30 pm
  #399  
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Originally Posted by cova View Post
With reports that the grounding of the 7M8 could be months, then why does AA still show 7M8 aircraft in its flight schedules such as DCA to LAX on Sat Apr 6th?

Looks like what AA did for the DCA-LAX afternoon flight yesterday was to cancel a DFW flight and fly the DCA-LAX flight with a regular 738,

Looks like AA has done the same today - cancelling flight 202 from DCA-DFW and using that aircraft for DCA-LAX. Is that going to be AA's plan. Keep 7M8 in the schedule and just cancel another flight to use its aircraft.

Starting 3/17 - AA shows 7M8 from DCA-LAX.

I guess if you now book a flight that shows 7M8 - then you have no recourse to change your flight.
Nobody knows how long the grounding will last. Theoretically, it could be early April - or much later if the FAA and airlines aren’t satisfied with the MCAS update. So it appears AA is not making changes to some schedules because they’re still deciding how some flights will be operated, and if they’re after April 4 they’re still hoping the MAX aircraft will be cleared.

If they’re not, they’ll likely extend the current policy.

AA can likely take up some slack during shoulder season, but when Summer high season arrives it could be challenging.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 5:43 pm
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Originally Posted by JDiver View Post
Nobody knows how long the grounding will last. Theoretically, it could be early April - or much later if the FAA and airlines aren’t satisfied with the MCAS update. So it appears AA is not making changes to some schedules because they’re still deciding how some flights will be operated, and if they’re after April 4 they’re still hoping the MAX aircraft will be cleared.

If they’re not, they’ll likely extend the current policy.

AA can likely take up some slack during shoulder season, but when Summer high season arrives it could be challenging.
AA has now published Frequently asked questions:

It discusses that AA may cancel unrelated flights to use the aircraft as a replacement for a 7M8 route.

What is not answered is ability to change flight if on a 7M8 or if you book a 738 now and it later gets changed to a 7M8.

Latest news reports they are looking at the flight controls and the location and size of the nacelle which can destabilize the aircraft pitch. The analysis is not complete, but this points more to a structural design and not just a software patch over a weekend.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 5:56 pm
  #401  
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Originally Posted by JDiver View Post
Tons of speculation out there (and here), but the investigation results will be both revealing and, as often is the case, the fulcrum for changes which will save lives in the future.
The fulcrum for changes shouldn't be weighed down with 300 human lives. But the air transportation industry does it again - waits for tombstones before they pay attention.

This should have been intercepted during design and testing. We. are. better. than. this.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 7:07 pm
  #402  
 
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Originally Posted by buckeyefanflyer View Post
Boeing is a great company but something went wrong here. How did not during all the testing and certification process this not be caught. 737 is a great aircraft. So many Max aircraft in production and on order.
Donald, is that you?
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Old Mar 14, 19, 7:13 pm
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Originally Posted by SouthernCross View Post


Since you are a pilot, you no doubt understand the concept of Minimally Qualified Candidate. This concept is used to sanction pilots, doctors, engineers, and many other professions. Aircraft must (and in most recent history have) be designed to not kill a Minimally Qualified Candidate. Are there better pilots and worse pilots? Yes, of course there are, but it’s statistically impossible to have all better pilots. That’s why the concept of Minimally Qualified is used. But to use a broad brush to disparage “third world” pilots is at best out of touch.

If you are saying the MQC bar needs to be raised, I take no issue. Yes, pilots need to know the aircraft, but in order for that to happen the aircraft manufacturers have to make the information available. With the MAX 8/9 it is well documented that this did not happen until recent events forced it into view. This is a global challenge, and yes there are things that are broken, but solving it requires a global inclusive approach.

I agree with raising the bar in all the professions listed.
But opponents argue you would not have enough people for the jobs then. In the aviation world that would mean less LCCs and higher prices.

If you look at construction costs in California's metropolitan areas versus other states, it may be a magnitude of order more. A lot due to permitting. But does that make it so the buildings are better?
Part of the issue is that the testing is flawed and not representative of success in real life. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman studied that issue, where test qualified military officers performed horribly on the field (similar to NFL draft picks failing out in their first few years). Testing has not caught up with the times (modern research)
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Old Mar 14, 19, 7:18 pm
  #404  
 
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Originally Posted by DenverBrian View Post
The fulcrum for changes shouldn't be weighed down with 300 human lives. But the air transportation industry does it again - waits for tombstones before they pay attention.
Honestly, I'm not sure I agree here. The air transportation industry is incredibly safe. 300 people is about three days worth of automobile fatalities in the US alone. Even when you adjust for passenger miles driven versus flown, it's not even close. While it's fair to criticize and this may be a place where Boeing and the regulators could have done even better, let's not get into hyperbole about the failures of the air transportation industry as a whole, very much including Boeing.

This should have been intercepted during design and testing. We. are. better. than. this.
Based on how things look, I agree there.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 9:18 pm
  #405  
 
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Originally Posted by sfoeuroflyer View Post
There is an elephant in the room. Third world pilots don't know how to fly. They are simply managers of the video game that is the cockpit. They don't know the aircraft systems and don't know how or when to hand fly the plane. The Asiana pilots who pranged the 777 at SFO are a perfect example. The cockpit recordings of Lion Air show the pilots were morons who did not understand the aircraft. Sometimes even non third world pilots don't know how to fly...example the Air France crash in South America where too late the captain came back into the cockpit to see the co-pilot fly the plane into the ocean. As I see it (and I am a pilot) what is going on is hysteria, grounding of an aircraft type, not because it is unsafe, but because too many airlines don't train their flight crews properly.
What is your source? Can we listen to the recordings? I am assuming you know Boeing did not release details regarding the planes automated systems to any airline prior to the Lionair crash.
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