3Cforme

If you can point to any data on that (indeed, for any US carrier), I would like to see it. I've been reading SEC filings and Investor Updates for a long time and I've never seen anything, nor even any decent allusions to such. Sources of passenger revenue by fraction just aren't mentioned, in my recollection.

What we do know - from an AA exec a few years ago, now, is that most people on the plane aren't earning miles in ANY program. They must consider themselves infrequent flyers, or be unaware of (now modest) value that can be obtained. Maybe they're infrequent business flyers and not self-paid leisure flyers.

JDiver

What we know and what we think we know doesn’t matter. The appropriate people at AA were tasked to redesign how status is assigned, likely with an entirely new view of that issue, and they implemented it (after studying Delta’s revised program).

nrr

A partially related item, after 9/11 and when the economy tanked, airlines were desperate for flyers--now things are "great" for the airlines, so they can treat pax "poorly" and get away with it. The economy (historically) runs in cycles, so there will be a downturn and throw in competition from LCC, particularly foreign ones could lead to financial stress for the airlines.
Related issue: Casinos in AC (in NJ) were doing reasonably well, until PA legalized gambling, AC had not planned properly. In the last 2 years 5 AC casinos closed.

oopsz

I don't think that's fair. As a 23k EQD platinum pro who has flown AA twice this year, I've started to get monthly voicemails on my landline from someone at AAdvantage, asking where I've been.

eponymous_coward

NO is losing buckets of money being a foreign LCC that competes TATL.

Norwegian?s Awful 2017 Shows Mounting Challenges to the Business | Cranky Flier

If the world economy goes into the toilet, I'm not seeing how that helps an airline that is losing money on each passenger but making up for it on volume. Everyone is going to get stressed.

AA100k

jmr50

Hey, he said work. That pretty rules out 'travel blogger'

enpremiere

The debated mass-exodus of top money-spending elites doesn't look like it materialized as AA aligned its program with Delta's. There just isn't a business case to actively retain individual customers, make material improvements, or retain customers when the economy is still moving at a decent clip and the legacy mergers are wrapped up, especially when AA will never lose money again .

Deregulated indeed but there very high barriers to entry so as long as the industry continues to move in lock step without any players stepping out of line with significantly better alternatives for the masses (not just individual markets/routes), churn isn't likely a big deal. It's interesting that EXPs and even CKs sometimes think that their individual spend or former spend somehow has an impact when it the cogs are just too big for them to make a difference. It's a seller's market right now so free agency just becomes so much more attractive for the smaller fish in the pool.

enpremiere

https://thepointsguy.com/news/norweg...tern-airports/

Do they really compete? Not yet, at least not from the right airports with connecting options and if/when they do, it's still an LCC model without a strong business program in North America.

thunderlounge

AA doesn't miss "former" elites. Most likely those who were "elite" are still flying, they're just at a different tier than before. Sure, some may have bailed, however it isn't enough to put a blip on the radar.

Obviously they don't want to drive anyone away, although at times it may seem so, but as with any such type of change any company that is halfway competent would expect there to be some folks who turn to another option.




Reading around here, it seems CK's are spending at least $60k/year. Even that doesn't mean they will invite you into the program, as their specific criteria is not published.

ou81two

They probably don't. That said, with all of the devaluation, unless I can buy a reasonably priced business fare on ANY airline, I just fly JetBlue. Better to have actual pitch on a decent product than chase the ever declining benefits of loyalty.

AABC

Was EP for five years, dropped down to P due a change in my job after a merger. Not only have I been getting the buy-in offers, but have received a couple of phone calls as well. But then, all my travel was business with a lot of last minute purchases so I am probably the type of traveler they didn't want to lose.

Geordie405

I have been offered multiple renewals to PLT for $1299 and I am ignoring them. The only reason I was PLT in the first place was because I was offered it through a work promotion, and the 500 mile stickers that came with it were useful at the time. I had already retained Gold with BA and knew I wouldn't make the 2500 TPs so it was an ideal opportunity to earn a few miles and hopefully get a few upgrades with AA. Most of the upgrades cleared, and I cashed in the points for free flights. With the exception of complimentary upgrades I find that my BA status does me very well when flying AA. Does AA miss me? I doubt it very much (wiping away a tear as I write this)

diver858

1. Even with the increased requirements to earn elite status, upgrades are as elusive as ever; as a LT PLT, I typically find myself at 15 - 35 on upgrade request lists.
2. Big 3 US airlines have become oligarchies, tough to see how - even in an economic downturn - any will fail. If severely threatened by a major event, I could see the government consider them "too big to fail", offer emergency support, not unlike the banks and automakers in 2007. No indication the political climate will change any time soon, allowing foreign ownership of a US carrier, visa versa. At the other extreme, carriers appear careful not to overstep their bounds, risk breakup threats.

eponymous_coward