How common are flights with zero cleared upgrades?
Feb 15, 2018, 9:31 am
#46
Suspended
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 1,808
Feb 15, 2018, 11:19 am
#47
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 156
I was on an unfortunate flight ORD-NRT where all but 2 J seats were later booked by an elderly Japanese tour group. I remained number 1 on the list, one seat blocked for the pilot, the last seat got FAM'd. That was frustrating.
Feb 16, 2018, 4:56 pm
#50
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: MSP/PIT
Programs: DL PM, AA EXP, Hyatt Diamond, SPG Plat
Posts: 98
Landing in MSP as I write this - cheers to you!
Feb 16, 2018, 5:03 pm
#51
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: MSP/PIT
Programs: DL PM, AA EXP, Hyatt Diamond, SPG Plat
Posts: 98
Pre T-4, LAA used to clear upgrades down to F(J)4.. LUS would clear down to F(J)0.. As of late, I've noticed they're clearing down to J1 when folks are on the upgrade list.. Such a shame for those of us who have paid for J and miss the flight or have flexible travel plans.
Feb 16, 2018, 11:56 pm
#52
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, BA Gold, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,989
Apologies in advance for the lengthy post --
Actually, in my experience flying AA regularly (since ca. 2011), clearing down to F(J)1A(D)0P(I)0 was quite routine on LAA. I still remember asking an ORD AAngel about how I could get that last first class seat at the airport, and she told me they always save one for a gate upgrade or a last minute full-fare purchase. That was long before I had any decent understanding of AA's revenue management practices, but I subsequently found the F1A0 deal within the final 4 hours to be quite predictable for LAA on the vast majority of routes.
There were exceptions, however. For a brief time (less than a year, perhaps during 2012 or 2013), STL-LAX flights on the S80 used to clear down to F4A0 prior to airport control. Sometime after that, on routes that were always cleared down to F1A0P0 after T-4, AA experimented with making them F1A1 (and P0 or P1) at the T-4 mark, making it easy to see the upgrade list on the app and grab that last 'A' seat with miles/copay or a SWU if you weren't #1 on the list. That later changed to a routine of F1A0P1 at T-4, making it easy to do a last minute up-fare on the day of departure. By studying those routines closely, those with miles/cash to burn who paid attention to these details had a fairly surefire method of avoiding coach, even when purchasing coach tickets... if sitting up front was that important to them.
Quite a bit has changed just within the past two years or so, and many of these changes have had to do with what AA refers to as more "granular" revenue/inventory control. It's one of the main reasons that 'C' space is now released much more selectively than 'A' space used to be when 'A' was both a revenue and upgrade bucket on two-class flights. AA wants more precision with respect to how much upgrade space is released, undoubtedly with the hope that those seats will be more likely to be purchased.
I must say, the above strategy has worked for them, at least in my case. The A319 flight I'm taking in a few days has been sold out in J for weeks, but I'm ticketed in paid 'D', because I know I never would have been upgraded otherwise. Well, that, plus the double EQMs, higher EQDs, ability to preorder my meal, premium cabin protection in IRROPS, and the ability to avoid worrying about anything related to T-4 and my position on the upgrade list.
That said, I don't know whether something changed after 1/31/18 with the number of EXPs, but my jaw dropped when my recent LGA-BOS upgrade cleared days in advance on a day/time that is typically extremely business/consultant-heavy.
With so many changes recently, I'm still trying to find the optimal mix of buying F/J vs. buying Y and hoping for the upgrade. Since this is the first full year of the new EQD system and since paid F/J fares generally seem to be continuing to fall in price, more study is needed, at least for me. I'm sure many other FTers who track these things closely and care about sitting up front are having the same internal debate.
Pre T-4, LAA used to clear upgrades down to F(J)4.. LUS would clear down to F(J)0.. As of late, I've noticed they're clearing down to J1 when folks are on the upgrade list.. Such a shame for those of us who have paid for J and miss the flight or have flexible travel plans.
There were exceptions, however. For a brief time (less than a year, perhaps during 2012 or 2013), STL-LAX flights on the S80 used to clear down to F4A0 prior to airport control. Sometime after that, on routes that were always cleared down to F1A0P0 after T-4, AA experimented with making them F1A1 (and P0 or P1) at the T-4 mark, making it easy to see the upgrade list on the app and grab that last 'A' seat with miles/copay or a SWU if you weren't #1 on the list. That later changed to a routine of F1A0P1 at T-4, making it easy to do a last minute up-fare on the day of departure. By studying those routines closely, those with miles/cash to burn who paid attention to these details had a fairly surefire method of avoiding coach, even when purchasing coach tickets... if sitting up front was that important to them.
Quite a bit has changed just within the past two years or so, and many of these changes have had to do with what AA refers to as more "granular" revenue/inventory control. It's one of the main reasons that 'C' space is now released much more selectively than 'A' space used to be when 'A' was both a revenue and upgrade bucket on two-class flights. AA wants more precision with respect to how much upgrade space is released, undoubtedly with the hope that those seats will be more likely to be purchased.
I must say, the above strategy has worked for them, at least in my case. The A319 flight I'm taking in a few days has been sold out in J for weeks, but I'm ticketed in paid 'D', because I know I never would have been upgraded otherwise. Well, that, plus the double EQMs, higher EQDs, ability to preorder my meal, premium cabin protection in IRROPS, and the ability to avoid worrying about anything related to T-4 and my position on the upgrade list.
That said, I don't know whether something changed after 1/31/18 with the number of EXPs, but my jaw dropped when my recent LGA-BOS upgrade cleared days in advance on a day/time that is typically extremely business/consultant-heavy.
With so many changes recently, I'm still trying to find the optimal mix of buying F/J vs. buying Y and hoping for the upgrade. Since this is the first full year of the new EQD system and since paid F/J fares generally seem to be continuing to fall in price, more study is needed, at least for me. I'm sure many other FTers who track these things closely and care about sitting up front are having the same internal debate.