cova

The coach loads are very light on AA to Europe right now - particularly to London from JFK. AA has three flights a day - and coach is nearly empty on those flights. And yes the seat map on expertflyer.com is accurate - even up to just before the door is closed. Just look at the seat maps - and there are not many without seat assignments.

Flew on AA 100 the other day - and the seat counts were 8 in F, 52 in J, and 71 in MCE/Y (77W has 232 Y seats MCE+Y). Coach was light on all three flights. I have flown these flights many times in winter and I have not seen the flights so light in Y.

Has AA become an airline of J passengers and Elites only? Has AA made coach so bad that non-Elite don't want to fly it? Figure they might as well go discount airlines - AA coach not any better?

ijgordon

It’s not just AA. Saw same thing on DL. This is trough leisure travel time to Europe.
But of course, the plural of anecdote is not data.

SpinOn2

It's always dead TATL this time of year overall. 2 years ago on Valentines Day I flew PHL-CDG in Y and it was booked 70 out of 200 something. Quite a bit of us had our own row of 4 across the middle to ourselves to lay out and sleep.

It's also prime for easy upgrades in my personal experience.

schertz

Yes anecdotes are not data but for a long time the TATL economy world was defined by what the main line airlines did. Now with ME3 for onward transit plus the Norwegian/WOW/etc we *may* be beginning to see the end of guaranteed yield TATL Y (even with aggressive sales that match WOWAir pricing).

I suspect it is going to get worse. Which strikes me that any move toward International Basic Economy’s will not be able to significantly help yields.

...and we all thought TATL 757 was bad... the new era may be 737MAX TATL BE

JJeffrey

Yea, Jan and Feb are complete dead zones for coach TATL travel. Nothing new here.

CloudCoder

Seat maps will become less reliable over time. As airline add-on fees proliferate, we will start to see more flights with lots of passengers but an empty seat map. If airlines charge $$$ to pre-select a seat. some folks will choose to just take pot luck (or wait until check-in at 24h).

tennessetom

No different this winter than any other. Cargo loads are high enough to make the flights profitable

sbgmiles

Flights from LAX- LHR are going out at about 30% of capacity in Y this week. My kids are out of school next week, so I thought that I would take them to London. Despite the fact that all of the direct flights are empty in Y, AA has no saver availability. They want 47,500 each way in economy. Luckily for me, I also have a supply of United miles. I will no longer be collect AA miles.

Acid

I did monthly TATL trips last year in jan/Feb/March - coach was always more than half empty (LHR/ZRH/MAD). In March, I was on BA out of Newark and it was 100% load in Y.

puchalskir

I went to Europe last winter four times from PHL on AA. All my flights were in the $400-$500 range. The flights were mostly full. This year I never found a flight for under $800. I did not go once. That might have something to do with it.

I guess the math works out that higher fares and lighter loads are better for them.

thunderlounge

Same money, less weight I guess.

I looked at a short TATL for Jan/Feb a few months ago figuring there would be a winter low season deal. Never found one worth booking.

sts603

This is quite common in the winter months. In 2012-2013, I flew to LHR from JFK every couple of weeks to see my then girlfriend. Through the winter even on arguably peak flights, the Y loads were frequently extremely low. One flight had 29 in the back of a 772. Several flights in the 30s or 40s. J and F would frequently be full.

sts603

ExpatExp

I wonder if the winter schedule reduction has been more severe than planned.

Two of the three daily BOS-LHR flights were removed from the schedule after tickets (including mine) had been sold on them. I bought a ticket in the autumn, after seasonal reductions had already been loaded. So it seems like there were additional reductions…?

cova

I have flown from JFK to LHR in Jan and Feb many times and I have not seen to loads in Y so low.
On the seat map - expert flyer is accurate a few minutes before door closes On my flight advance seat assignments pretty much agreed with actual - by 10 - 12 more just before boarding.