Old May 20, 2018, 6:34 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: Michael D
Perhaps some of us can contribute to adding updated in this Wikipost, as it is community property. Heres a start:

Mainline aircraft coming, departing or not taken up:

A319s (125) all have been refitted to 8F with 37pitch, MCE, power, served WiFi IFE, ATG4 WiFi. Expected to fly through 2020.

A320 (48) Expected to fly through 2020. served WiFi IFE, conversion to ViaSat WiFi. Currently no power or MCE. Expected to fly through 2020.

A321-200 (219 in total) All non-A321T three class transcon A321-200s will be refitted to the Project Oasis densification program (F 37pitch, MCE 33 pitch, MC / Y 30 pitch with Meridian seats, served IFE via WiFi, enhanced ViaSat WiFi. Conversion will last through 2020; 219 A321s are expected to keep flying through 2020.

A321neo will begin coming on line in 2019. 25 expected in 2019, 25 more in 2020. Configuration is likely to be similar to A321S and -H, and some will replace 757 LUS to Hawaii.

A330-200 (15) have been refitted with MCE and Panasonic WiFi, and are expected to continue flying through 2020.

A330-300 (9) has been extended in its tenure with AA, but wont have PEY added and may be phased out after 2020.

A350 has been cancelled in favor of a mixed order of 47 more 787-8 and -9.

Boeing 737-800 (304) will be reconfigured to 737 MAX 8 standard under the Project Oasis densification program (F 37pitch, MCE 33 pitch, MC / Y 30 pitch with Meridian seats, served IFE via WiFi, enhanced ViaSat WiF by 2021. Reductions over 2019 and 2020 to 259.

737 MAX 8 4 in 2018, 20 in 2019, 40 in 2019 and 60 in 2020. Out of the box under the Project Oasis densification program F 37pitch, MCE 33 pitch, MC / Y 30 pitch with Meridian seats, served UFE via WiFi, enhanced ViaSat WiFi. Further increases, but deferrals in 2021, 2022.

757-200 (34 total) remains as two subfleets: both with MCE;

757 Hawaii LUS (10) with reclining seats, expected to phase out by 2020. No power, no WiFi, overhead IFE.

75L LAA (24) with BAE Rockwell Collins Diamond Parallel in J/F. These 24 will continue to fly through 2020. All other 757s have been sent to ROW for disposal. Converting to Panasonic WiFi, overhead IFE (tablets in J longhuaul). These will fly on though 2020.

767-300ER (24) with lie-flat solo J, power J and MCE, tablet IFE longhaul J and overhead in MCE, Y. 6 to retire in 2019, 13 to retire in 2020 and 5 remaining to be retired in 2021 presumably.

777-200ER 37 J seat have been reconfigured to include PEY, 10 across MC / Coach.
45 J Zodiac seat 772s will be reconfigured to 37J, PEY.
Those 772s with Zodiac J seats will not be refitted with BAE Rockwell Collins Super Diamond Seats, Panasonic WiFi, setback AVOD IFE. Several older 772s are likely to retire in favor of 789#, no schedule given.

777-300ER remain the same.

787-8 (20) with Zodiac J seats (no replacement planned) and Panasonic WiFi, power, seat back AVOD IFE, expected to fly on, 22+more to come after 2020 to replace the 763

787-9 (14 in 2018, 20 in 2019 and 22 in 2020), 25 more 787-9 to replace A330-300s and some older 777-200s, with BAE Rockwell Collins Super Diamond J seats, Panasonic WiFi, setback AVOD IFE.

E190s (20);will be phased out in 2019.

MD-80s will be phased out in 2019.
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AA 2018-2020 Fleet Plan

Old Jan 25, 2018, 1:56 pm
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AA 2018-2020 Fleet Plan

FYI, AA provided an investor update today on its Fleet Plan for 2018-2020.

No big surprises, however overall pace of new mainline aircraft acquisition will slow in 2018. 26 MD80s will now live to see 2019. Still showing the A350 in 2020 however there is still a lot of skepticism they will follow through on that order. Will be interesting to see if they place any new orders in 2018. They could potentially be a candidate for Boeing's "NMA" 757 replacement. .

From their update:
  • In 2018, the company expects to take delivery of 22 mainline aircraft comprised of 16 B738 Max aircraft and 6 B789 aircraft. The company also expects to retire 19 MD80 mainline aircraft.
  • In 2018, the company expects to reduce the regional fleet count by a net of 4 aircraft, resulting from the addition of 9 CRJ700 aircraft, 6 E175 aircraft and 28 ERJ140 aircraft, as well as the reduction of 33 CRJ200 aircraft, 3 Dash 8-100 aircraft and 11 Dash 8-300 aircraft.
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 2:25 pm
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Interesting! Thanks.

It looks like the A330-300 was given another year, the MD-80s were extended a bit, 763 numbers to remain stable, and at least some 757s will be replaced by A321neo.

I wonder if the A350 might be converted to A321neo orders and whether some more 787-9 or even -10 might be in the possible future?

Last edited by JDiver; Jan 25, 2018 at 3:24 pm
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 3:21 pm
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They're retiring 45 738s? I assume those are the ones delivered around 2000? I'm surprised that those are already reaching the end of their lives. The numbers look like the 60 738 Maxes are not too much more than a 1:1 replacement for the older 738s, and overall the narrowbody fleet loses a few frames, with E190s, MD80s, 757s, and old 738s replaced by A321 Neos and 738 Maxes (obviously with a significant capacity gain especially when you factor in the absurd density of the new 738s).
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Last edited by ashill; Jan 25, 2018 at 3:28 pm
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 3:25 pm
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Wow, a few things stand out to me. First of all, it looks like AA is ready to start retiring their oldest 738s in 2019 (the oldest which will have been flying 30 years 20 years by that point). Figure the MAX aircraft easily replace those, so shouldn't be a problem.

Originally they were supposed to be down to 16 763s by the end of 2018, now all 24 stay through AT LEAST the end of 2020?? Those seem to have a lot more life in them; it's a big shame AA didn't do more on the refurbs with these.

And finally, what in the heck is the deal with the ERJ-140s?! Seems like those things were supposed to be out to the graveyard years ago, and now they're bringing them all back?!

Last edited by arc727; Jan 25, 2018 at 3:36 pm Reason: My apologies...can't do math
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 3:27 pm
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Planespotters.net puts AA's oldest 738 - N901AN - at Feb. 1999 delivery. It is the 184th 737NG.
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 3:32 pm
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Originally Posted by arc727
And finally, what in the heck is the deal with the ERJ-140s?! Seems like those things were supposed to be out to the graveyard years ago, and now they're bringing them all back?!
Eek, although they are losing more CRJ-100s (33) than they're gaining in ERJ-140s (28), so it's close to a wash in <51 seat jets; presumably just a contractual change in operators. Combined with the elimination of the Dash 8s, that's a small capacity reduction in the smallest planes. If that means those planes get replaced by E75s and the like, ^. If that means service to small cities goes away or loses frequencies, not so good.
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 3:33 pm
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Originally Posted by arc727
Wow, a few things stand out to me. First of all, it looks like AA is ready to start retiring their oldest 738s in 2019 (the oldest which will have been flying 30 years by that point).
20 years. Which seems kinda young to me for retirement?

Originally Posted by arc727
And finally, what in the heck is the deal with the ERJ-140s?! Seems like those things were supposed to be out to the graveyard years ago, and now they're bringing them all back?!
Those things have more lives than cats it seems. But since AA has them, might as well use them I guess?
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 3:34 pm
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Just to follow up, in the Q&A Parker was asked about the fact that fleet plan currently shows a significant decline in 2020. His response was that AA would likely keep the mainline fleet count flat for the foreseeable future and that the decline in 2020 just didn't reflect the fact that they will likely order some more aircraft to replace those that are falling off in 2020.

Specifically with regards to the A350, he once again said that they were still considering taking on the 20 A350s but that there were concerns around adding another aircraft type to the fleet so they are also actively talking to both Airbus and Boeing about the possibility of adding some more A330-900s or 787-9s instead of the A350s.
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 3:36 pm
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Im wondering (and too lazy to check) if 20 year old 738s might be leased in? In any case, I suspect the market for used 738s is pretty active (unlike the MD-80 market). But if its not that, I do suspect some of them might be high cycle airframes by now.
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 3:41 pm
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Originally Posted by 3Cforme
Planespotters.net puts AA's oldest 738 - N901AN - at Feb. 1999 delivery. It is the 184th 737NG.
And the first 737NG (full stop) was delivered in 1997 (says Wikipedia), so there is no way that AA has 30-year-old 738s.
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 3:42 pm
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Originally Posted by JDiver
Im wondering (and too lazy to check) if 20 year old 738s might be leased in? In any case, I suspect the market for used 738s is pretty active (unlike the MD-80 market). But if its not that, I do suspect some of them might be high cycle airframes by now.
This might be a good point. Because the oldest A319s and A320s were delivered in 1998-1999, and those aren't going anywhere. Granted, they don't really have anything to replace them with; maybe we'll start seeing the oldest of those get retired once all the A321-neos are delivered.
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 3:47 pm
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Originally Posted by 3Cforme
Planespotters.net puts AA's oldest 738 - N901AN - at Feb. 1999 delivery. It is the 184th 737NG.
Odd that they are retiring them at 20.

The early build ones were much more metal while the later builds had quite a bit of composite, IIRC. Otherwise, they are pretty much the same, so am surprised. Especially given the age of some of the mad dogs - they likely had more cycles at this point in their life too.
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 4:29 pm
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Originally Posted by Antarius
Odd that they are retiring them at 20.

The early build ones were much more metal while the later builds had quite a bit of composite, IIRC. Otherwise, they are pretty much the same, so am surprised. Especially given the age of some of the mad dogs - they likely had more cycles at this point in their life too.
Yeah, though I'd expect that MD-80s get more cycles per year because 738s do longer flights (including transcons) than MD-80s (which don't have the range). Also, the fuel burn of MD-80s hurts more on longer flights even within the MD-80 range, so my impression is that AA tends to assign MD-80s to the shorter mainline routes when practical (and has since the 738 fleet became large).
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 4:43 pm
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Looks like 2020 is a good year for me to retire (as the prob of a 738 Max instead of a 738 is over 20%).
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Old Jan 25, 2018, 5:13 pm
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Originally Posted by JDiver
Im wondering (and too lazy to check) if 20 year old 738s might be leased in? In any case, I suspect the market for used 738s is pretty active (unlike the MD-80 market). But if its not that, I do suspect some of them might be high cycle airframes by now.
That's an interesting idea. I wonder if this might be signaling to GECAS or AerCap that AA is expecting big lease rate reductions - or can live with aircraft being returned.
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