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-   -   Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1883276-chances-upgrade-clearing-availability-2018-master-thread.html)

Uncle Nonny Mar 22, 2018 7:49 pm


Originally Posted by McSam18 (Post 29556486)
Thoughts on chances for upgrades as a Gold on a Monday night, 8:20pm flight from PHL to BNA and a Tuesday evening, 6:28pm flight from BNA to DCA? Still a few weeks out, but both flights are empty in F according to EF.

I wouldn't burn your 500 mile upgrades on these quickies.

tasty_chicken Mar 23, 2018 5:07 am


Originally Posted by tasty_chicken (Post 29272087)
Can anybody share about their experience with SWU's clearing for AA27/26 LAX/HND. I'm booked leaving 4/26 with return on 4/30. Expert Flyer shows 0 C award space as of today but I've set alerts.

Just an update. My SWU confirmed yesterday on AA27 LAX-HND. There are 2 more C spaces available for anyone else who might be heading in the same direction. Still waiting on AA26.

no1cub17 Mar 23, 2018 6:59 am


Originally Posted by Uncle Nonny (Post 29556602)
I wouldn't burn your 500 mile upgrades on these quickies.

I would. You're unlikely to be able to use them on longer flights. I redeem stickers on 700 mile flights all the time and have over 20 left still.

McSam18 Mar 23, 2018 8:13 pm


Originally Posted by jpb5101 (Post 29556582)


Both are longshots and hard to say before they start clearing for EXP etc.. if F looks fairly empty the day before then you have a chance.

Good advice, thank you!


Originally Posted by Uncle Nonny (Post 29556602)
I wouldn't burn your 500 mile upgrades on these quickies.

Normally I agree, but....


Originally Posted by no1cub17 (Post 29557818)
I would. You're unlikely to be able to use them on longer flights. I redeem stickers on 700 mile flights all the time and have over 20 left still.

Agreed. These are kinda of use it or lose it sort of deal for me. Personal domestic travel is paid F, but this is an unusual work travel situation. Personal travel will be down this year, so I doubt I requalify for Gold.

AATrout Mar 24, 2018 7:51 am


Originally Posted by jpb5101 (Post 29556312)
On a decent streak of my last six clearing. Was recently on DFW-DEN and cleared after boarding before we pushed back. EXP but 4/21 on the list, but they ended up clearing six seats after boarding. Assuming a family missed their original flight / or connection, since I noticed F was pretty empty when I boarded.

I have done ok this year, actually excellent. 17/18 legs so far. Only fail was this past Wednesday coming back to DCA from ORD. The storm - my leg was CANX so I did standby on the next one and was grateful to be in 19C. Cant complain.

Haven’t commented on this thread yet this year. I am pretty impressed with upgrades clearing at or near T-100. Except for some reason DFW-DEN...I think it was convention traffic ‘buying up’ for these trips.

VickiSoCal Mar 24, 2018 1:08 pm


Originally Posted by AATrout (Post 29561472)
I have done ok this year, actually excellent. 17/18 legs so far. Only fail was this past Wednesday coming back to DCA from ORD. The storm - my leg was CANX so I did standby on the next one and was grateful to be in 19C. Cant complain.

Wow. EXP husband is 3/18.

Antarius Mar 24, 2018 1:17 pm


Originally Posted by VickiSoCal (Post 29562376)
Wow. EXP husband is 3/18.

You've posted this before and I still am shocked. I'm batting probably 90 something % and the ones I have missed are last minute IAH-DFW flights which seem to have 40 people on the waitlist and one DFW-DEN flight that was J0 when I booked it.

It may be worth dropping a note to AA to just have them check. I had a 3 month period a few years where I either wasn't on the UG list or was in some absolutely incorrect position (and I know because a PLT friend cleared at the gate before I did). Now, it may just be your husbands travel patterns and EQD thats causing this, but 3/18 seems shockingly low.

Antarius Mar 24, 2018 1:20 pm


Originally Posted by jdang (Post 29554600)
I know that I cant upgrade from coach to first. I only mentioned the 2 first class was open if 2 business class seats upgraded to 1st, then there would have been 2 business class seat open and I would have been upgraded. But that didn't happen.

If I requested my upgraded earlier 3-4 weeks prior there were a ton of open seats similar to the LAX-HKG flight that I might have gotten a chance to upgrade.

I'm just trying reinforcing the notion that LAX-HKG-LAX is easier to upgrade if a gold with no EQD can upgrade putting a request 3 weeks before the flight.

I wish AA would cabin roll J to F to clear more Upgrades. It costs AA nothing to do this, it actually helps them get miles+copay through the door (and SWUs used).

Why not?

VickiSoCal Mar 24, 2018 1:25 pm

He was at about 14K EQD's last year. This week he was number 2 on the waitlist LAX-JFK. Number 9 and 10 were upgraded from Business to First after boarding, no one else. AA says "business went out full" but won't say what happened to those 2 business seats. I suspect non-rev as he said several did not board when groups 1-4 boarded. He was number 5 coming back JFK-LAX, one got upgraded.

But that's a pretty typical pattern for this year. He's anywhere from 2 to 5 on the list and 0 to 2 people get upgraded, but not him. So I think he is in the right spot on the list for his EQDs.

It is really discouraging though. He's even been talking about just not wanting to do his job anymore.

The year is 25% over. 18 domestic flights, 3 upgrades. 19.9% of the way to qualifying again as an EXP on EQD's, 30.7% on EQM's. This will be his 11th year as an EXP if he does requal.

Uzzar Mar 24, 2018 2:51 pm


Originally Posted by VickiSoCal (Post 29562445)
He was at about 14K EQD's last year. ....

No offense, but 14k EQDs is very low. I am about 25k rolling EQDs and have missed quite a few upgrades this year, particularly hub to hub routes. Typically I am in the 5 or 6 position on any CLT or DFW flight, and many go out full F without clearing anyone off the list.

beachfan Mar 24, 2018 3:38 pm

I'm only 50% upgrading on LAX-MIA so far, and I'm using miles and copay - still usually 2 or 3 on the list, and they've been going out full ever since they cut out the 77W. Even now with the 772 back in the schedule for a few weeks, still often going out full. Of the 4 successes, two were upgrades confirmable in advance with miles/copay (before they clamped down on that) the other two were battlefield (but still SWUs). If I relied on my Exp Status for complimentary, I'd be 0 for 8.

dkc192 Mar 24, 2018 4:02 pm


Originally Posted by Uzzar (Post 29562701)
No offense, but 14k EQDs is very low. I am about 25k rolling EQDs and have missed quite a few upgrades this year, particularly hub to hub routes. Typically I am in the 5 or 6 position on any CLT or DFW flight, and many go out full F without clearing anyone off the list.

Yeah, 14k is on the lower end. I'm around there myself (somewhere in the 14-16k range), and found myself 23rd on the list last month for a Monday evening DFW-BOS! (It was a holiday weekend, so the date/time is comparable to a Sunday evening flight.)

VickiSoCal Mar 24, 2018 4:21 pm


Originally Posted by Uzzar (Post 29562701)
No offense, but 14k EQDs is very low. I am about 25k rolling EQDs and have missed quite a few upgrades this year, particularly hub to hub routes. Typically I am in the 5 or 6 position on any CLT or DFW flight, and many go out full F without clearing anyone off the list.

No offense taken, but after 10 years of 70 to 80 percent and not really changing domestic flying patterns it is tough to to have everything turned upside down.

Centurion Mar 24, 2018 4:45 pm

Cost Rica SJO>PHX flt 2803 elite upgrade sucess? (to merge)
 
Anyone here familiar with San Jose Costa Rica SJO>PHX in March and early April for elite upgrades for Plat and Exec Plats? Do you clear?

Antarius Mar 24, 2018 4:57 pm


Originally Posted by dkc192 (Post 29562899)
Yeah, 14k is on the lower end. I'm around there myself (somewhere in the 14-16k range), and found myself 23rd on the list last month for a Monday evening DFW-BOS! (It was a holiday weekend, so the date/time is comparable to a Sunday evening flight.)

It is rolling 12 month EQD vs last year EQD for upgrade priority too. So, if you had a heavily front loaded 2017.. that has just about passed the 12 month threshold.

I had a couple of 5k+ EQD flights in Jan and Feb 2017.. rest of 2017 was relatively quiet. Definitely noticed come end of Feb, I dropped from the 1-2 spot to 4-5 and then lower. Slowly climbing back up.


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