Right! I think they will kept the newer 757 for another decades. They won't be retired for another 10 - 15 years.

Got it, thank you. Gross weight vs runway length. Does this flight get USCP pre-clearance?

BA1 gets pre-clearence in SNN, BA3 does not, as it falls out of their opening hours.

Before the AA merger, Dougie said that PHX -Hawaii is too long and HOT for the 737MAX series aircraft. He encouraged Airbus to design an A321neo version that could serve Hawaii from PHX. I'm assuming that this is the announcement and it would not at all surprise me for the new AA to purchase this aircraft (or convert some of their existing order to this new 321neo configurations).

This is a bit off topic, but is this really a concern now? Post merger, is there much of a reason to keep PHX-Hawaii flights around rather than just routing traffic though LAX or DFW?

The original article says nothing about making the A321neoLR a replacement for all the B757 routes. It states only that it will be for TATL routes. They didn't specifically include hot and high, such as PHX-xxx. I think to make it a true replacement would place it in the exact same niche where the B757 was positioned, and that place evidently isn't supported by the economics. So don't be surprised if Airbus comes up with an LR that has engines with substantially lower thrust ratings than what were offered on the B757.

Good question. I don't have any O&D stats for PHX-Hawai'i, but if I had to guess, I'd say PHX features some nonstop demand. After all, Hawai'i is a favorite destination of older people, and Phoenix has plenty of them, retired and moneyed. With several million people living in and around Phoenix, it can probably support some nonstops to the islands.

Depends, of course, on how many of those PHX passengers were flying LAX-PHX-Hawai'i, and I wouldn't put it past US to have sold such routings pre-merger. Actually, I just looked at the US website and US is still selling LAX-PHX-HNL routings for about the same price as LAX-HNL nonstops on AA metal. That's a ridiculous routing, and I'll bet that eventually PHX won't be a permitted connection between LAX and Hawai'i.

Some other interesting data would be how many PHX-Hawai'i seats are filled with passengers for whom DFW or ORD would be a more efficient connection.

LAX will likely never connect as many small places as does PHX, but AA has forecast more growth at LAX, and more of those smaller places might see a 76-seater or two to LAX. After all, the O&D to Los Angeles from those small spokes is far greater than the O&D to Phoenix from those small spokes.

That is a bit hyperbolic....

757 is good at long and thin, and hot and high: So TATL secondary cities and US-South America. If 321LR can in fact do those things that 757 is so good at, there is no doubt AA will order it.

As for whether the market exists outside of TATL, least we forget, China also has lots of long and thin routes, and hot and high airports. I think 321NLR will be interesting proposition for Chinese airlines that also operate(d) many 757s. So the overall market size may be larger than at first glance.

But since this is AA forum, I will go back on topic and predict a 30 frame 321NEO option conversion to 312NLR by AA sooner rather than later.

Yes. Because HA/G4/NK/AS will show up and gladly take the money of people who live in PHX if AA decides they don't want it as a hub. A city of 4+ million people has plenty of demand for nonstop service. It's silly to think they'll want to backtrack 2 hours to DFW and turn a 6 hour flight into a 10+ hour connecting flight. LAX is better, but it's still a connection/adding time, and less convenient than the nonstop.

It's not a question of if PHX will continue to exist as a hub, but rather if they will continue flying PHX-Hawaii when AA already has established service from LAX. I don't imagine it's a huge money maker. Otherwise, they would have at least beefed up the premium cabins with something other than shoddy old domestic first class style seating. Partner HA will likely continue to serve it - and on nicer 767 widebodies than the old US 757's.

Hawaii doesn't attract a lot of premium business/lie flats. AA flies beater 752s from LAX. UA's 777 config for Hawaii is old recliners in C. AS doesn't have a lie-flat subfleet to Hawaii...

+1

Furthermore, US currently runs up to 4 daily HNL flights + 2 daily OGG + LIH and KOA flights during the peak periods. I would love to see how all of these flights could be replicated at LAX, capturing the same O&D passengers as PHX.

AA runs the 763 out of DFW to HNL and OGG and seasonally out of LAX to HNL. Best seats you're going to get to Hawaii from the US

A 752 doesn't have range out of DFW, so that really doesn't prove much- the only planes on the property that can fly that route are the widebodies, so either AA flies one to Hawaii from DFW or gives up the route. If Hawaii was a premium market for AA, they have plenty of 763s to fly there from LAX instead of Europe every day, as opposed to seasonally. I maintain Hawaii isn't a premium market, and that there's no reason for AA to stop flying PHX-Hawaii just because US was flying it with 752s, since AA flies LAX-Hawaii with the exact same plane, a 752.