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Expected delay for AA1659 on friday?

 
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 12:00 pm
  #1  
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Expected delay for AA1659 on friday?

Taking AA1659 into ORD on friday, expected arrival time is 730pm. The flight yesterday was canceled (because of weather I assume). And today's flight hasn't taken off yet, are there any ways for me to take a guess at the delays I'd likely face?

I've used flightstats.com but it only gives 1 day of flight history, are there any other sites available?

What does personal experience tell you?

TIA, I'm hoping I can make a dinner at 9pm.
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 12:01 pm
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Originally Posted by skit53
Taking AA1659 into ORD on friday, expected arrival time is 730pm. The flight yesterday was canceled (because of weather I assume). And today's flight hasn't taken off yet, are there any ways for me to take a guess at the delays I'd likely face?

I've used flightstats.com but it only gives 1 day of flight history, are there any other sites available?

What does personal experience tell you?

TIA, I'm hoping I can make a dinner at 9pm.
If you need to make the dinner change to an earlier flight to be more sure.
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 12:11 pm
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Originally Posted by Animgif
If you need to make the dinner change to an earlier flight to be more sure.
I don't need to make the dinner, but I would like to know my chances of making it.
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 12:14 pm
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HNL
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Originally Posted by skit53
I don't need to make the dinner, but I would like to know my chances of making it.
2.67%
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 12:38 pm
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Originally Posted by HNL
2.67%
I think you didn't factor global warming into your calculation. That raises it to 4.38% if I did the math properly.

Cheers.
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 12:42 pm
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There is no reasonable way of knowing .... though some may claim to know.
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 12:48 pm
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Originally Posted by Tony5008
There is no reasonable way of knowing .... though some may claim to know.
Agreed. IME the earlier flights are generally more on-time than the afternoon/evening flights since there are fewer chances of delays throughout the day - but on any given day it's all up to chance.
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 12:56 pm
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Originally Posted by Tony5008
There is no reasonable way of knowing .... though some may claim to know.
Of course, there is no reasonable way of knowing. That's why the OP didn't ask us what we knew. He asked what personal experience tells us.

Personal experience tells me 3.1417%.
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 1:15 pm
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Originally Posted by gemac
Of course, there is no reasonable way of knowing. That's why the OP didn't ask us what we knew. He asked what personal experience tells us.

Personal experience tells me 3.1417%.
I was answering this part:
"And today's flight hasn't taken off yet, are there any ways for me to take a guess at the delays I'd likely face?"

My personal experience is actually 31.417% - a full 10x of your personal experience!
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 1:18 pm
  #10  
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Did you all take the Earth's rotation into consideration? It should bring it down a bit.
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 1:26 pm
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Originally Posted by skit53
I've used flightstats.com but it only gives 1 day of flight history, are there any other sites available?
www.flightaware.com shows more flight history, up to 4 months worth, if you register. Hope that helps!
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 2:33 pm
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EF says this flight is on-time 25% of the time with an average delay of an hour and two minutes, and the longest delay in the last 60 days of 3 hours and 51 minutes. When this flight is late into ORD, more often than not, it is more than 45 minutes late.

I wouldn't plan to do anything in Chicago that night, and be pleasantly surprised if it works out.
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 6:05 pm
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Originally Posted by skit53
Taking AA1659 into ORD on friday, expected arrival time is 730pm. The flight yesterday was canceled (because of weather I assume). And today's flight hasn't taken off yet, are there any ways for me to take a guess at the delays I'd likely face?

I've used flightstats.com but it only gives 1 day of flight history, are there any other sites available?

What does personal experience tell you?

TIA, I'm hoping I can make a dinner at 9pm.
Keep in mind that the "Summer Storm Policy" includes flights originating in New Jersey, and allows you one change for flights thru July 1. You can change to as late as July 9.

Just a thought.
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 6:38 pm
  #14  
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Originally Posted by skit53
I've used flightstats.com but it only gives 1 day of flight history, are there any other sites available?
Select "Flight Rating" in flightstats.com and you get the performance over the last 2 months; select "Flight history" and you can display history for the flight.
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Old Jun 27, 2007, 7:37 pm
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Originally Posted by Rdryno
I wouldn't plan to do anything in Chicago that night, and be pleasantly surprised if it works out.
Even if the OP misses the dinner at 9, there is still an good eight hours of going out time after that.
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