AAShel

Just checked my flight leaving ORD - TPA next Sunday....there are only two seats left on the flight (coach), both in exit rows....

What do you think are the chances of getting a bump?? If I can plan it ahead of time I'll have extra snacks and things to do for the kids......

nako

The seat map is not a reliable indicator in determining how full a flight is or whether it will be oversold.

Mike

brp

1 in <some positive number>

(positive already implies non-zero)

Cheers.

nako

This number will be non-zero and positive, incidentally.

Mike

HNL

2.267%

Deltahater

forget the seat map. Invest in experflyer.com subscription or check out seatcounter.com

Odds are no bump. AA is pretty good at revenue management

oklAAhoma

Chances of a bump are slim, but since you are traveling with children I think that carrying extra snacks and things to do is a great idea anyway. You never know when weather or mechanical issues will slow you down and you'll be very glad that you have the extra goodies along.

ricktoronto

I have no idea why you'd taunt this guy with your made up number for a legitimate question that is only asked 24 times a year.

The true (*) number is 11.02988332%













(*) Made-up

daggett24

At least provide some research behind how you came up with your made up stats.

According to http://bumptracker.com/ the odds are more like:

1.343535% if flying on a day when the weather is cooperating.

You might want to cross reference your itin with http://www.weather.com and determine the airport delays, due to weather, compared to the airport delays not due to weather. Multiply this by the number of passengers who are traveling. Then divide that number by the amout of EXP and PLT passengers who are on your flight. If any of them have FT luggage tags, use the formula found on the back of your boarding pass.

mvoight

I think you made up the "24 times a year" number too.

It is asked more often, but possibly not as often is "I need x miles right away, how can I get them?" or "My flight was canceled, what does AA have to do?" or "Please calculate my challenge points for me as I can't read the directions".

ricktoronto

I could only recall the last 24 . You are probably right that the number is higher than 24. The odds being 11.02988332% that that is the case.

Most often most repeated:

Bump odds
How many miles is this, as I don't want to add or read
Challenge calculations
Standby violating only 10 or 12 of the criteria
When will seats open up (X, U, C, now later, easy hard, blah blah)
Free coupon codes
Bonus points for sign up to AA
I need X miles and am too lazy to fly
How do I beat the system on something expired/expiring (Includes refunds not deserved)
Route speculation
Aircraft speculation
Seat installation speculation
Made my challenge ! WHOOPPEE!
Made GLD/PLT/EXP
How many segments, miles do you have, earned so far etc.?
Why was flight X cancelled ( I wasn't on it but just am nosey and too lazy/cheap to look/pay for the means to find out)
Should I switch from (name of bankrupt airline here)
Comping my (name of bankrupt airlines) Lead/Chrome/Vanadium status
Suites or coffins
OOH! They changed the plane from X to Y
Getting BP's early/late/again
Rotten food/bad food/ no food/ no choice
Quesadilla or Omelette on my flight
Credit card choices
I read seatguru and don't believe them so how about this seat and when you reply I will say screw you what do you know?
Buy/gift/swap miles should I could I would I?
How to weasel my way into the AC (sub question, if I ignore the rules and admit policies can someone here tell me why I can ignore them?) even though I am not a member, not PLT or more, not international and too cheap to fly in J to get in free
Can you do EF for me as you should pay but I should not pay
Can I tailgate in with you to the AC since I am too cheap to join?

Just the same old shite day in day out.

If we numbered these, then people could post : #5: DFW-ORD or #9 ticket bought in 1992 in "pi" class. No need for a mesage body just a title.

Answer list could follow.

jragosta

If you have enough snacks, you can make a fortune selling them when your airline sits on the tarmac for 10 hours.

salut0

I love this -- can we link to it from the Wiki?

sbrower

I have previously allowed myself to think I was one of the more patient members. But just before I read the outstanding list, above, this post was the one that broke the camel's back for me. It is getting frustrating to read "have you ever . . ..?"

Here is a simple answer for new posters. If your question is "has anyone" or "did this ever happen" the answer, almost without exception, is "yes". If your question is "will it happen for me this time" the answer, almost without exception, is "no".

CloudCoder

Thanks for posting a list of questions.

Now please post a list of answers.