Blumie

^ This should be part of the new FlyerTalk (and there is a new FlyerTalk coming) mantra. We need people to stop arguing that because they observed something happen once, that's the way it must always be.

ijgordon

Wait a sec -- you've actually seen that kind of inventory availability??? I spend entirely too much time on expertflyer, but can't recall ever coming across a situation where A < P.

Jakebeth

Here are some examples, as of this moment for ORD-LGA and LGA-ORD:

F7 A2 P3
F6 A0 P1
F7 A2 P3
F6 A0 P1
F7 A2 P3 (3 flights)

F7 A0 P2
F6 A0 P1
F6 A0 P1
F7 A2 P3
F7 A3 P4
F6 A0 P1
F6 A0 P1
F6 A0 P1

The only time any flights had A = P is when they're both zero. (not pictured here).

vasantn

Interesting. I'm as baffled as ijgordon because I have never seen this pattern.

ijgordon

Yeah, very interesting. I'm seeing as well when I pull up some random dates in ExpertFlyer. I guess though that there's no reason for anyone to buy a YUP(A) fare when a KUP(P) fare is available, at least on this particular route as both are refundable. But when they sell out of the P inventory, then what? They're going to either have to open the A inventory up, or else the only first class fare available will be full F, which might price them out of a few sales.
To me, this is still a "what is AA thinking?" situation.

Fly AA J all the way

This was part of my OP, but with regards to LAX-ORD and return. When I booked my tickets, EF was showing F7 A0 P7 for both flights. They upgrades cleared within days of booking, and I was confirmed for A seats several weeks out, but I still felt this odd.

rkm

Happened all the time on the HNL flights...at least before they instituted the co-pay.

Jakebeth

Are you saying that you're baffled because you haven't seen it before, or because it doesn't make sense to you?

To me, it's quite 'internally' consistent from a very parochial, profit-maximizing perspective. Perhaps a little silly, but mentally I view F7 A0 P2 more conceptually as F7 P2 A0 if one allows that they're in order of economic benefit to AA.

In other words - hey, plenty of F seats available for y'all. You may also choose to step up and pay a discounted UP fare. All you Platinum scrubs who'll never clear on this route can take your miles (yeah, we know we sold 'em to ya. Hah!) and stuff 'em for now. We're gonna sell those seats for CASH. And if we can't, it'll be too late for you anyway, 'cause when those Fs become Xs, the 32 EXPs in back are gonna have dibs.

Ok. So maybe their intent isn't quite that malevolent, nor the real AA voice so shrill. Maybe it's just how things sound inside of my lowly Platinum head.

ijgordon

This is where I disagree. YUP fares that book into A have a greater economic benefit to AA than KUP fares that book into P. You'd think that P would be a subset of A (P <= A) so AA could better control how many of the more discounted KUP fares they sell, while making more expensive YUP fares available. But then you throw in the wrench that A inventory is also used for the upgrades, and it throws off the whole time-space continuum. I really wouldn't be surprised if, sooner or later, AA changes the booking class for upgrades to First Class, either to "P" or something else.

pistonsdc

At the risk of getting flamed, I'm going to add my anecdote to the pile here. I understand revenue management and all, but this seems a bit excessive to me:

I purchased my ticket and requested an upgrade about 6 weeks ago. My flight is about 48 hours from now and apparently no X inventory has been released yet (yes, I have the automated alert set up). EF is showing:

F7 A5 P0 Y2 B2 H2 K0 M0 L0 W0 V0 S0 N0 G0 Q0 O0

So the good people in rev mgmt expect to sell seven F seats in 48 hours?

Blumie

Well, what they're hoping for is that several people -- preferably business people who are relatively price insensitive -- will need to take this flight. Given that only 2 seats remain for sale in Y (which almost certainly means that the flight is oversold in Y), it won't take a lot of demand for them to sell some F seats, particularly since they're willing to sell 5 of them for a discount fare (YUP). Of course they're also willing to confirm your upgrade for you right now, but only if you're willing to use miles or a VIP.

Jakebeth

I'd add to that the fact that we don't know the route. A handful of YUPs/Fs sold in the last 48 hours doesn't sound too ridiculous if it's in/out of LGA, for example.

Could someone remind me (or direct me to a thread/wiki) exactly what books into A and what books into P? I thought we had this somewhere, but I've been searching and I can't find it...

Fly AA J all the way

Also you have to take into account that you might have a route that has a lot of flexible F tickets purchased, and a lot of last minute changes. Think of the AFS flights in J and F for example. You might want to give the guy who is running late the option of changing his flight to the next one (assuming he's on a full-fare ticket) rather than telling him there aren't seats, and possibly causing him to cancel and rebook on someone else.

jragosta

I doubt if they expect that at all.

What do they stand to gain by waiting? Perhaps some people will buy F tickets. Perhaps someone will decide to use mileage for a confirmed upgrade rather than waiting. If either of those happens, they come out ahead.

The only way AA loses is if you cancel your ticket because you didn't get an upgrade instead of switching to a different flight. Since that doesn't seem to be very likely, there's no downside to AA for waiting and plenty of upside.

Fly AA J all the way

With those numbers (Y2 B2 H2, the rest 0s), you cancelling your (supposedly discount) ticket, and being stuck with a change fee down the road that AA pockets, and the ability to sell one more Y, B, or H seat, I'd say they still win.