Huh????
 

When did AA offer fly 3 and get one free promo recently??? :confused:

Probably was announced a couple of weeks ago and it starts on March 2.
Don't forget to register.

It's not really a "buy 3, get 1 free" promo, per se - though the 30,000 miles you get is enough for a domestic coach award ticket:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=518494

Mike

Ok - This is one big misleading thread... I assumed Fly 3 get one free is the equivelant of the one offered 2 years ago which was not specific to where you are flying from.

Unlike this one!

I agree its misleading, but its not really the threads fault so much as it is American's for naming the promotion the way it did:

https://www.aa.com/apps/netSAAver/Vi...omotionContent

Actually, $5 less. Sounds like somebody is looking on Travelocity or the like.

There is still lots of time left. $20 bucks isn't really big in the overall picture. If worst comes to worst, book one trip to DAL and two of the DAL-AUS fares for the same day, total you will have lost is $40 for the double-dip promo.

It's still early days, folks. AFAIK, AA is adding 4 flights daily into the Dallas-STL market. WN is adding another 4. That's over 1,000 seats per day. I gotta believe that not more than 25 of those seats will be occupied by people both alert enough to know of this promo and savvy/crazy enough to fly just for the miles. That leave a lot of seats to fill. Check the seat maps on some of these flights. Remember that these extra flights are being generated by a change in the Wright amendment, not by demand. I see a lot of half-empty planes in someone's future, and both these airlines are deadly serious about it not being them, and grabbing/defending this market. None of these half-empty planes are flying yet. When they start flying, I think things will heat up. If you have only one or two real rigid time slots to do this in, I would go ahead and book now. If you are pretty flexible, I would wait.

All above comments on STL apply to MCI also.

The bottom line is that there is no downside here, only big benefit and bigger benefit. Enjoy, these don't come around that often.

There really ARE a lot of empty seats. I am planning to take advantage of this promo on or around March 4-6. I was looking at the seat maps for DAL-SAT/AUS/MCI/STL and the planes are completely empty. It's going to be a huge loss for AA, at least initially.

Because of the novelty, I think it would be interesting to do this out of DAL, but given that I am seeing most flights during the period with less than 10 (or even 5!) seats taken (even on some MD-80s), I don't want to book everything and then have AA cancel flights.

What is the chance that AA will cancel some of the flights if there are literally more crew members than pax? Should I just book everything ex-DFW to be safe or is AA not going to cancel anything early on for fear of losing face (if not money)?

Here's a scenario:

I could do STL-DFW then DFW-AUS-DFW on a seperate itnerary and then home DFW-STL on the original roundtrip, and that'd be two roundtrips and completely permissable right?

Absolutely. According to the terms of the promo, they must be on separate tickets (one bonus per ticket).

Frankly, AA is putting a lot of money behind defending its Fortress Dallas. I doubt that they will be cancelling many flights. I think it would be much more likely that on a flight of 5 passengers that they would invite everybody up into first to make it easier on themselves.

If they did cancel the flight, you have a lot of flexibility, since you don't really need to go anywhere as long as you get mileage credit as booked. If it is your opening flight of the day, you might be able to just go home and get all your miles for the day.

Unless there as a really good reason why you need to complete this promo in the first week of its 3-month run, I would advise keeping your powder dry. I think it will get hotter before it cools off. Edited to add: I'm just guessing, though.

So you're saying hold off a bit for potentially better prices later on in the promotion?

Shoot, if the flights were pretty open, that'd be great since I'm a lowly Gold, maybe I'd get a comp upgrade.

(Yeah right) :D

Every Tuesday morning, Southwest puts a seemingly random city on sale. This week it's Nashville. If the Random Southwest Sale City Gods ever happen to smile favorably upon AUS, SAT, STL, MCI or DAL, then AA will almost certainly match.

Thanks Gemac for the analysis. In fact, I think I do need to do the promo in early March because I have a few days off during that time to get to a promo city, fly the promotion, and then get back home. I can probably do 2 of them in May, but want to get at least 4 of them done during my days off in March.

I suppose it won't hurt to wait til next week's WN city list is released (thanks SquareDanceGuy for the tip) to see what happens...

The taxes on AUS-DFW-AUS are 4.50 higher than AUS-DAL-AUS. I haven't booked, but was checking.

AUS-DFW r.t. was 118.60
AUS-DAL r.t. was 114.10

I can't check the loadings on the WN flights between STL/MCI and DAL, but I would bet that they are pretty empty too. Remember that flying into DAL is great if you are connecting onward on WN, and often better than DFW if you are terminating, but it is a real disadvantage if you are connecting onward on AA or any other airline out of DFW.

Right now, there are 13 nonstops/day on AA from STL to DFW, mostly M-80s with a few 757s. In addition, NW and UA offer the fare as a one-stop, but it is more expensive and an extra connection, so I gotta think anybody who is currently doing that will continue to do so.

AA is adding 4 nonstops/day to DAL, and WN is adding 4. None of the current AA nonstops to DFW is being taken out of the schedule. Where will all the extra people come from to fill those planes? WN has been wanting this route for 30 years. Now they have it. Will they let their own high pricing push them out of this market? That hasn't been their history. In the past, they have been willing to price as low as it takes to establish themselves in a market.

AA seems just as determined to defend their lock on Dallas. They have plenty of financial muscle to do it with, and I expect them to match whatever WN puts out there.

So, you're asking if I expect prices to go lower later in the promotion period. Well, it sure wouldn't shock me if they did. I don't really see any reason for them going any higher. I have a lot of flexibility in my schedule, and I live in St. Louis, so I'm waiting. If I lived in LA, wanted to do 6 RTs in a weekend, and found a cheap airfare to one of the participating cities, I would be locking the whole thing up right now. Kinda depends on your situation.

Please note that I have no inside information. I am just looking at the situation with the same facts that you have, analyzing it, and making a guess. You are welcome to agree with my guess or disagree, and act accordingly. You are welcome to post your reasoning here, and I would encourage you to.

The really good news is that this is a win-win situation, and those don't come along too often. At current pricing, this deal is a huge winner. If the airfares go up 20 or 30 dollars per trip, it is still a huge winner. If they go down 20 or 30 dollars, still a huge winner. It looks like one of those situations where you are right no matter what you do. Enjoy.