bjornbook

So - after years of trudging along on the same equipment - just wondering if anyone has any inside scoop on when AA might commencing a "fleet renewal program" (we all know it's going to have to happen sometime - and hopefully it's in our lifetime...)?

Maybe someone has heard any semi-accurate rumors about when AA might finally get "upgraded"? - tho I am not "holding my breath" that it'd be anytime soon...

If money was not an issue (and of course we ALL know it is an issue - so no need to reply with "hey - money is an issue for AA") - it seems they could do some further rationalization of their airplanes types down to something like 4 basic types from today's 6-7 types (for mainline that is).

My suggestion would be to simply have 3 airplane types for mAAinline (top-level types): 737-800/900, 767-300ER/400ER, 777-200/200LR.

Drop all the old MDs and replace them with new fuel efficient 737-900 models. If they need a small-mid level model (now that they have to compete at DAL) - maybe toss in an Embraer 190/195 with 100 passenger capacity for fun (for mAAinline that is... not AE)

And - they should finally put the old A300-600 and B767-200 models to sleep, and replace both with modern 767-400ER (just like Continental's version)

Just for fun facts - here are the original launch dates of the 767 types AA currently has in service (of course AA bought a lot of em after the initial launch date - but the fact is that even the 300ER is now an 18 year old design)
767-200ER 03/27/1984
767-300ER 03/03/1988

At least the 767-400ER is "only" a 5-year old design: 767-400ER 09/14/2000 (CO fleet)

Anyways... the above is clearly wishful thinking... but - hey - who said we couldn't be dreaming...

So - anyone with any info - feel free to tickle us with the idea that we might one day be walking down the chute onto AA metal, and suddenly smell the "new plane" smell we haven't experienced in such a looong time...

Maybe the 787-8xx/9xx is even possible in some distant future - in that fairy-tale kingdom where oil is less than $40/barrel?

Just my magic pixie-dust $0.02...

AEpilot76

E170's and E190's for Eagle....the AA pilots will give in, it's only a matter of time.
That will be AA's fleet renewal program

JDiver

AA has, iirc, two 777-223ERs due this year, as far as "heavy metal" goes. Some RJs (I'd like to see more Embraer ERJ-170/175/190/195 type for their RJs, personally, but it will come at more expense of mainline metal, as AEpilot76 says.)

IF AA had the bickies, I believe they would stick with the Boeing product and invest in more medium and long haul two-holers in the 767 and 777 product line. And dream about the 787, of course.

Ah, well, that is more of a fuelish Juan Trippe dream, for now.

AEpilot76

No more RJ deliveries this year...we took our last E145 last july.

Flailey

What about the 7E7? I heard they got CO to buy a few of those... wonder if AA will pick any up. Seems like they're avoiding Airbus completely so it seems only natural.

The planes are starting to get a little crusty. Southwest was one thing, but when some LCC's feel more modern (and Jetblue sure does) then you have to do something unless you want to slide downhill forever.

zman

Why does anyone think AA needs new planes except for AE? - Isn't there strategy to cut service (except international). As planes become too old (need major check), they just retire them to the desert. As B6, LUV and Air Tran add planes and routes AA cuts back. I think LUV is adding 32 new aircraft this year. AA is adding 2 new 777-200ER intended for China service. AA has a few more orders on the books that they were not able to cancel for 777-200ER and 737-800 for like 2012.

WRCSolberg

I don't think they do, with the exception of the new T7s because AA has been expanding internationally lately. The only reasoning I can see behind buying more 738s is the fact that there are so many Mad Dogs, replacing them is a monumental task. But, AA has some 738 orders still deferred through 2012, so it must not be a pressing need at the moment. I have no complaints with the Mad Dogs.

I think buying more 767s at this point, is pointless. Nevermind the fact that as it stands right now, once the current order book for the 767 line is completed, the line will be shut down for good. The 787 isn't that far away relatively speaking.

If we see anything in the near future as far as new orders goes, it'll be for more 772ERs.

CO FF

Fleet rationalization is nice - but the goal is to have the fewest a/c types needed to support your flying, not just to have the fewest a/c types possible.

Adopting the E190/E195 for mainline would require a mutually acceptable wage scale to AA & APA -- not likely without contentious negotiation, and then you get the question of why inflame labor relations only to incur a massive capital outlay and little (if any) cost savings?

Using the 738 as the "small" mainline plane leaves a gap between Eagle at 50 seats and the 738 at 160+ seats. The 739ER is - for passenger comfort purposes - really nothing more than a shorter-range new version of the 752 - without the power. 180 seats, transcon range, but not trans-atlantic.

The 764 is obsolete already -- even CO, which needs widebodies for longhaul almost as badly as AA -- isn't rushing to order more. CO could use 764s out of EWR to all of Europe, but they're not taking them. Why? My guess: not enough flexibility. Too big for domestic use, too short-range for Asia. Waiting on the 787 is more prudent.

But if we're playing silly uninformed guessing games, my guess for the AA fleet of 2018:

-- Eagle operates a whole lotta whatever replaces the ERJ (the thought of flying a 20-year old ERJ135 is scary...), plus a scope-limited fleet (75 or so) of E190-sized aircraft that have a small F cabin.

-- Mainline is the launch customer for whatever replaces the 737. They have two versions, with cockpit commonality: a 733 replacement, seating 12/126 (designed for WN to seat exactly 150 in all-Y configuration, thus allowing 3 FA staffing), designed for short (2000nm stages) range, and a 739 replacement, seating 16/162 (designed to seat 198 in an all-Y configuration) and able to go SEA-MIA or BOS-UK. These replace the MD80s and, by the late 2020s, the 738s.

-- 787s, in various configurations, to handle the bulk of the longhaul traffic.

-- 777s, in various configurations, for the high-load runs.

AEpilot76

Embraer has made it very clear to AMR over the past few years that they are willing to take the 135's and the CRJ's off their hands if they buy a bigger EMB, but as long as scope is in place that will never happen. Chautaqua is already paying AMR a large fine for operating E170's on their certificate, AA/APA is serious about scope.

Eagle is not taking any more deliveries of aircraft so everytime a city loses AA service, we have to shift aircraft around to fill in. We still have options for 25 more CRJ's but that won't happen anytime soon. Mainline domestic service will continue to shrink and the fleet plan will depend on negotiations between ALPA, APA, and AMR.

JonNYC

I'd be very surprised if AA doesn't add 7E7's. I expect we will see news of an order.

justageek

I agree with all the previous posters -- any new aircraft will be for international service. AA uses the (arguably reasonable) policy of cancelling routes that are unprofitable. As Southwest and JetBlue expand, and as Virgin America (or whatever it's called) launches, more and more domestic routes will become unprofitable. There is no conceivable reason for them to buy more domestic aircraft.

I think their main problem is that they don't have enough near-term 777's on order...

DataPlumber

Is this conjecture or a "rumor?"

JDiver

I won't be surprised if this happens - makes sense, given the new tech in the Dreamliner, and... JonNYC predicted it would likely be so!

JonNYC

It's slightly more than conjecture-- but less than a rumor. In any case, keep your eyes glued to AA.com for the latest on this... (not serious about that part, of course.)

In any case, I personally do expect it.

FWAAA

I expect to see orders for a couple dozen 747-8s when AA announces the acquisition of NW, along with some more 777-223ERs or, if AA can make the GE plunge, a couple dozen 777-200LRs. Plus orders for about 50 or so 787-9s. No orders for the smaller 787-8 (which is the 762 of the future).

Thus concludes our www.airliners.net break. Now back to reality.