mileshound

I am taking the 321T to LAX using a FC award on Tues @ noon and there may be a significant snow storm. I see my plane is coming in from LAX the night before.

Assuming the airport is open and there are delays/cancellations, do the LAX flights get cancelled less often due to the point to point flying and possibility being more profitable?

weirdlyndon

You may get delayed due to ATC and/or de-icing. I flew LGA-BOS yesterday on US and with de-icing, BOS holding patterns, etc. all in all we were sitting on that plane for 2.5 hours from boarding to deplaning.

bdemaria

I dont think that one can offer a specific/definitive answer to that question. Weather tends to impact regional jet flights more often than mainline flights. At the same time, if the weather is slowing down arrivals/departures - then int'l flights usually have priority over domestic flights.

Ultimately - short of a complete airport closure - cancellations occur on a flight by flight basis.
A cancellation of an LAX transcon would be based on issues related to crew & plane availability - and given the regularity of those flights - to a degree flight loads. If they must cancel a flight, and the noon flight is only 1/3 full and the 2 pm flight is almost zeroed out then they may opt to cancel the 1/3 full flight. However, they will not cancel the flight simply b/c its only 1/3 full.

ty97

This is *highly* anecdotal on my part and is not based on any formal analysis, but having lived in ORD for a few years and now in NYC for a couple, I have certainly noticed that when slots become limited in poor weather conditions, the smaller planes (i.e. American Eagle branded regional jets) seems to take a heavier hit of cancelations that mainline. And AA seems to try to get the big birds out to the overseas locations if at possible.

But overall, it's a bit of a crap shoot in weather. And with the foreccast for Monday night into Tuesday, I'm not sure how much anyway is going to be operating into or out of NYC late Monday or Tuesday (we'll have to see how the weather actually develops)

JDiver

A lot of guessing is what we can offer. They do tend to cancel the regional aircraft first, but there's much that's unpredictable - including ground holds issued whilst your aircraft is still on the ground.

Even aircraft de-icing is more challenging than one might think from equipment limitations; more than one kind of de-icing fluid is on hand, depending on what kind of snow is at hand.

There is already a Northeast U.S. Travel Policy in place. The link to it and other resources can be found in: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...l#post24231427

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

Assuming the weather predictions hold I would not count on much moving Tuesday. From my many years living in NYC, many people will reschedule particularly domestic travel. If the airports are open and there is some flight activity, AA tends to cancel some of the hub flying and try to move paxs onto other flights. International its a different story. Its usually a wide body with one or two flights and less ability to move paxs around so as others have said those tend to go if at all possible.

Have you called and asked about leaving tomorrow?

danohio

While you are on a flight that is far less likely to cancel versus regionals, the weather is calling for blizzard conditions (35+ mph winds 1/4 or less vis). In conditions like those, it can be illegal to operate commercial flights (private aircraft are OK to fly, legally in a blizzard). Given your plane is supposed to come in during the blizzard, it is questionable that you will get out Tuesday, possibly late Tuesday. Your best bet is to take the change if you can.

nyc6035

Not to be alarmist....if the current forecasts hold...

I looks like 1-3 inches starting mid morning Monday. I would suspect AA will start to curtail ops even on the transcons around noon Monday. If the forecast sticks for 24-36" over the period lasting into Tuesday night I would anticipate JFK will close to ops in a meaningful way until 10am or perhaps noon on Wednesday (it's a lot of snow to clear).

With all this in mind - it depends on how much you want to get out of dodge. I would suggest using the free rebooking now to either get on a noon or earlier tomorrow - or something like a 3pm or later on Wednesday. Anything in between has a reasonably high probability of canceling - and by then the Wednesday afternoon flights will be booked solid (if they aren't already - I haven't looked)...that would leave you in NY until perhaps later on Thursday I suspect.

Good luck.

AMflier

I'm booked on the Wednesday 2:45 PM JFK->LAX #117. I'm sweating this one out as well. If the predictions hold, it's gonna be a close call.

ty97

From what I can tell, AA is no longer selling tickets to anything due to arrive LGA or JFK Monday after 7pm. They haven't canceled, but they aren't selling tickets on those flights. Departures after 7pm still appear purchasable, and Tuesday in/out still appears purchasable, though I expect that will change if the forecast holds.

(And I just noticed that AA107 from LHR, due in at 8:10pm Monday, has officially canceled)

The snow is supposed to be normal, nothing scary, during the day Monday. Maybe 1-3 inches. But then it forecasted to ramp up fast and hard Monday night. I expect AA is going to avoid RON'ing planes in NYC Monday night to the fullest extent possible.

But again, I'm just guessing.

socalduck

My personal experience through JFK is that Int'l > transcon > hub > RJ. However, the forecast is pretty dire so if you can reschedule, that would be my suggestion. I just rebooked a trip to/from LGA this week, and was able to get an EXP agent within 5 mins of calling.

mileshound

I am up in ALB so making the 3+ hr trip to JFK looks iffy. ALB is supposed to be in the gray area of getting a lot or not much. I just hedged my bets and booked a UA flight from Syracuse which is 2 hrs west. They are not predicting anything there so that is almost a sure thing.

I am heading to the super bowl so I need to get out and cannot wait for the ALB situation to be clearer. I really wanted to try the 321T (I booked in March) but I guess it was not meant to be.

If they cancel the AA flight do I get to redeposit the miles for no charge?

george 3

Tuesday morning will likely have a lot of snow followed by heavy winds. Unless the weather reports are totally off JFK and LGA will close. JFK can stay open when LGA closes due to its longer runway but With so many weather services forecasting way more than a foot, the airlines are going to avoid having aircraft in NE cities on Tuesday morning. So there is a chance that some of the later Monday flights arriving in JFK (and LGA) will be canceled as well. I've already written off my Tuesday AM LGA ORD flight.

Get ready for a good healt dose of travel chaos this week boys and girls.

Thanks for posting the wiki link JDiver

Letitride3c

JFK will stay open longer & reopen sooner (vs. LGA) after a major winter storm/blizzard to service its longer runway(s) for overseas long hauls - one of my nephew, working ground/int'l cargo @JFK said they are planning to stay again @airport hotel (JFK Hilton last Saturday) with standing housing arrangements for possibly 2 consecutive nights, to insure a quicker recovery ops. If catering & ground crew cannot show up for duties, neither can FA/pilots (some of the JFK crews are lodging not far from us, a 30 to 60 minutes ride away, normally)

Blowing wind & drifting snow are going to be a problem by Tuesday morning @JFK and elsewhere - as others said, conditions could worsen rapidly and halting aircraft de-icing, also making it impossible to plow the taxiways & runway.

During previous major winter storm, mass transit shut down before airports called theirs as airport concessions rolled their gates, food services kept open subsequently ran out of anything to sell to stranded travelers ... Tuesday is not a good day to do any major air travel for business or otherwise in Juno's path. I just got the snowblower ready, shovel & ice melt, along with other winter gears ready & public schools predicted to close on Tuesday. And, there's more snow in the forecast for Friday but not to worry for now.

ubernostrum

So, a certain special someone has her mother visiting, due to depart Tuesday flying BDL-DCA (on US, ticketed by AA) and then DCA-LAX.

Anyone want to put odds on BDL-DCA actually operating? Or on when she'll actually get through to see about changing it (she got in the queue, got the "we'll call you back", then they did a few hours later, and said "whoops, wrong dept. called you, back in the queue you go")?