pandaren

Looks like transcon premium airfare war is heating up with JetBlue selling business class tickets at $599. AA just reduced their discount business class fare to ~$1100 o/w from ~$2200 o/w. At the old fare most business flights ends up with few seats left at T-100 hours and 1-2 seats left at T-24 hours. With this new price I don't imaging upgrades happening until the gate. With other domestic discount F fare selling just a few hundred higher than economy looks like the golden days of free and easy EXP upgrades are way behind us. Any thoughts on this?

millionmiler

Your analysis seems reasonable to me.

CaptRobPhD

Still 'free' just not as easy, unless the fare wars -- as they so often do -- also lead to carriers increasing capacity [and probably NOT bigger gauge but even more frequent service] on routes so as not to lose market share. There's no doubt JBLU is targeting AA/UA/DL premium travelers on this particular route but it may also be that JBLU is looking for its own True Blue (FF) folks who have long been buying the coach products to remain loyal but appeal to their more discerning tastes. Conversely, the price match is an attempt not only to retain their own FF and prevent them from jumping ship if this is the primary route (if not, the legacies stand a better chance of NOT losing their $$$FF) but is also an attempt to immediately put pressure on JBLU to perform or bow out. May see this JBLU move actually affect pricing even in/out of neighboring places such as LGA/EWR and perhaps even BDF & HPN (capacity constraints there not withstanding). Watch for JBLU to target AA in FL/Carib next...

hillrider

Ah, the beauty of competition!

A big chunk of AA customers on this route are on large corporate contracts (Hollywood, bankers, lawyers, etc.), which are ~60% off the full fare or about $1,200 each way, which is not too far from these new lower prices (but they are still more advantageous as they book in J inventory, have no advance purchase requirements, are fully refundable, and often come with a % of free upgrades to F attached with them).

I think that these new lower prices are there to retain the SMBs and individual premium travelers not on a corporate contract, so the shift may not be as huge; I don't think that the $400-600 round trip Y-cabin traveler will start ponying up $2,200 for business class because it's now "50% off"; it's just that with this pricing a few less of the current business class customers not on a corporate contract are going to go over to B6.

The fact is that with B6's entry the number of premium seats is going to increase ^ and therefore the market clearing price will decrease ^ ^.

It will be interesting to see once B6 has seats on all of its planes (now it's only 1) what (if any) retail price differential there will be between the big 3 and B6!

JonNYC

I'd agree as well-- if the info in the OP is correct (not that I have the slightest idea to believe it isn't-- just haven't done any research) and on whatever transcon flights/dates/times/etc those fares apply-- I'd expect upgrades (and especially non-day-of-departure upgrades) on those flights to become very, very rare. The people in those seats, by and large, will be people who paid it.

Separate but certainly related; we're still yet to hear the verdict on if AA is planning on keeping 3-cabins on the A321. They were definitely seriously reevaluating (I know this for a fact-- not internet chatter) and, well... this development will certainly influence that decision.

To take what I know for a fact further into pure speculation on my part; I'd expect that by this time next year, there will be no 1x1 F cabin on those A321s, or they'll be in the process of being removed.

77W_12A

At that price, it's not even worth buying Y class. Just buy the C class fare and not worry about upgrades clearing. There are plenty of people willing to pay $1100 for LAX-JFK flights.

Upgraded!

If they keep F, any chance they'll simply reduce the number of F seats, sort of the way they did with the 77W (halved from the 772)? Or would you expect some kind of an alternating 1x2 configuration sort of resembling B6 or 2x the left or right side of an LX 333? A 2x2 like UA had (which I suppose would look a little like the old coffins) just seems like a waste of space.

JonNYC

Can't rule out the first option (reduce # of F seats) but would rule out a all new F config, personally. I'd say stick with status quo or eliminate F on transcon a321 by far most likely options.

pandaren

If they remove the F seats and put J seats instead we would have a J cabin of 40 seats then I like the odds on those upgrades. I think it's a smarter business decision to replace those F with J cabin. The F and J seats are very similar in terms of comfort. Most of the A321T flights(~10 flights) I've been on the F cabin is almost always only half full then the other seats went to employee standbys. And of those "paying" passengers in F i'm sure at least half of them are using miles as there are plentiful MileSAAver awards open up few days prior to departure. The only point of F so far is allow people to burn miles and allow employee to sit in first I don't think that's a smart business strategy.

JonNYC

I would -not- count on 40 seat in J if they eliminate F-- they will reduce and replace with Y+ and Y.

pandaren

So they are going to increase size of Y? If that's the case it's still fine with me. With the current small Y cabin AA doesn't really care about selling discount tickets since they can fill up Y pretty easily with last minute sales. So bigger Y should drive prices lower as the cheapest flight on Y has gone from ~180 last month to ~260 this month. But hopefully they'll manage to have 30 J seats.

george 3

I just ran a quick, unscientific search for JFK-LAX r/t 6/3 out 6/5 return and yes it appears sanity is returning, sort of. The cost is $2,198 for J. I haven't seen fares that low on this route in a few years. Yippee. No more LGA-DFW-ONT routines to save money.

pandaren

LGA/JFK-DFW-ONT/LAX is still substantially cheaper I think. Most of those flights range from $500-$800 one way. If connecting through DFW is expensive there are always cheaper connection points such as ORD or BOS. That's still quite a bit cheaper than $1100 one way imo.

SJC AA

Same discount on JFK-SFO. From what I can tell there are only a few seats being sold at the 50% off price (in I inventory) (which is, frankly, still ridiculously expensive -- more than twice the price of comparable length flights in other markets -- just not as ludicrously expensive anymore). Or at least it's not available on every flight, every dya.

george 3

Agreed, and when r/t J price began topping $4k, my travel policy said no more transcontinental and I flew to ONT (convenient for some of my business in LA). At the lower price, the direct routing is far more comfortable on the 321Ts and far more flight options. Yes, the free market works. Thanks JetBlue!