AA Number One on "Richest U.S. Air Route"
May 21, 2013, 11:24 pm
#1
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AA Number One on "Richest U.S. Air Route"
From Bloomberg:
New York-Los Angeles is both the busiest long-haul U.S. route, at about 3.2 million passengers a year, and the richest, at $1.43 billion in annual sales, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. First-class fares on that trip may be 10 times as much as in coach, based on prices on airline websites.
“Pandering to business traffic is a lot more important than getting volume,” said Michael Boyd, president of consultant Boyd Group International Inc. in Evergreen, Colorado. He estimates that premium seats typically generate three-fourths of the revenue on a cross-country flight.
[...]
American, reorganizing in bankruptcy and poised to merge with US Airways Group Inc. (LCC), accounts for 32 percent of revenue on the New York-Los Angeles route, according to Boyd. By his estimates, Virgin America has 21 percent, Delta has 19 percent, United Continental Holdings Inc.’s United is at 16 percent and JetBlue has 11 percent.
“Pandering to business traffic is a lot more important than getting volume,” said Michael Boyd, president of consultant Boyd Group International Inc. in Evergreen, Colorado. He estimates that premium seats typically generate three-fourths of the revenue on a cross-country flight.
[...]
American, reorganizing in bankruptcy and poised to merge with US Airways Group Inc. (LCC), accounts for 32 percent of revenue on the New York-Los Angeles route, according to Boyd. By his estimates, Virgin America has 21 percent, Delta has 19 percent, United Continental Holdings Inc.’s United is at 16 percent and JetBlue has 11 percent.
May 22, 2013, 3:24 am
#2
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Just checked 5/27. DL has 8 flights on B752 and VX has 5 flights on A320. How does VX get more revenue than DL?
May 22, 2013, 6:28 am
#3
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May 22, 2013, 7:23 am
#5
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# of flights, aircraft type or seats sold is close to meaningless. It's all about revenue and net revenue. Look at the price differential between the highest premium and the lowest steerage fare bucket and you can see just how weighted profitability is in favor of high-paying premium seats as well as full fare steerage.
May 22, 2013, 8:27 am
#6
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This route really has 3.2 million passengers per year? That's over 8,700 people/day! I can't believe that.
How many flights are there in total? If the average plane holds 200 people (and that is a generous number), that's about than 46 flights per day!
...and most of these planes are 737s/A320s (only hold about 140 people)
...with the occasional 757 (about 200 people)
...and a few 767s (about 250 people)
Is this accurate??
How many flights are there in total? If the average plane holds 200 people (and that is a generous number), that's about than 46 flights per day!
...and most of these planes are 737s/A320s (only hold about 140 people)
...with the occasional 757 (about 200 people)
...and a few 767s (about 250 people)
Is this accurate??
May 22, 2013, 8:34 am
#7
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This route really has 3.2 million passengers per year? That's over 8,700 people/day! I can't believe that.
How many flights are there in total? If the average plane holds 200 people (and that is a generous number), that's about than 46 flights per day!
...and most of these planes are 737s/A320s (only hold about 140 people)
...with the occasional 757 (about 200 people)
...and a few 767s (about 250 people)
Is this accurate??
How many flights are there in total? If the average plane holds 200 people (and that is a generous number), that's about than 46 flights per day!
...and most of these planes are 737s/A320s (only hold about 140 people)
...with the occasional 757 (about 200 people)
...and a few 767s (about 250 people)
Is this accurate??
And I just used my FlightTrack iOS app to look at LAX -> JFK direct flights for tomorrow, on all airlines, and found 32 (not counting the QF flight that would have no O&D traffic). Assuming all aircraft make the turn, that's 64 daily flights between just LAX and JFK, not counting co-terminals or one-stop connections.
May 22, 2013, 8:39 am
#8
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Remember that as an O&D market, not all flights have to be non-stop, and not all will be to JFK. One-stops would definitely be included in that number, and I would imagine that co-terminals in both cities would also be part of that number (SNA-ORD-LGA for example).
And I just used my FlightTrack iOS app to look at LAX -> JFK direct flights for tomorrow, on all airlines, and found 32 (not counting the QF flight that would have no O&D traffic). Assuming all aircraft make the turn, that's 64 daily flights between just LAX and JFK, not counting co-terminals or one-stop connections.
And I just used my FlightTrack iOS app to look at LAX -> JFK direct flights for tomorrow, on all airlines, and found 32 (not counting the QF flight that would have no O&D traffic). Assuming all aircraft make the turn, that's 64 daily flights between just LAX and JFK, not counting co-terminals or one-stop connections.
May 22, 2013, 8:50 am
#9
Join Date: Oct 1999
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A search for a random Friday in June JFK/EWR - LAX yields 45 Flights..... (48 if you include EWR-SNA)
10 AA
20 UA
8 VX
7 DL
3 UA to SNA
10 AA
20 UA
8 VX
7 DL
3 UA to SNA
Last edited by tfjim; May 22, 2013 at 8:59 am
May 22, 2013, 8:52 am
#10
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May 22, 2013, 9:09 am
#11
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Another fine Bloomberg article... doesn't specify whether the passenger counts from BTS are O&D or total; doesn't specify if Boyd's market share estimates are non-stop or connecting; doesn't specify if the market is metro NYC to metro LA, JFK-LAX, or yet some other possible definition.
May 22, 2013, 9:53 am
#12
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The most heavily-traveled O&D market in the USA is between the Bay Area and the LA Basin, where an average of 19,906 O&D passengers flew between SFO/SJC/OAK and LAX/BUR/ONT/LGB/SNA each day in 4Q2012. That's an average of 9,953 each way, every day. Of course, WN, with 90-some daily flights, dominates that market.
In 4Q2012, the NYC area and the LA Basin featured an average of 10,576 daily O&D passengers, or 5,288 each way. As pointed out above, these are total O&D passenger counts, not necessarily nonstop passengers, so quite a few of them connected (at DEN, PHX, DFW, IAH, ORD, ATL, etc) between SoCal and NYC.
In the fourth quarter of 2012, AA carried an average of 825 O&D passengers each way, every day between JFK and LAX. The nine daily 762s featured 1,674 seats each way, so quite a few of the AA passengers on that route were connecting at LAX or JFK.
Here's a link to the latest O&D numbers: http://www.dot.gov/policy/aviation-p...onsumer-report
May 22, 2013, 10:03 am
#13
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Another fine Bloomberg article... doesn't specify whether the passenger counts from BTS are O&D or total; doesn't specify if Boyd's market share estimates are non-stop or connecting; doesn't specify if the market is metro NYC to metro LA, JFK-LAX, or yet some other possible definition.
May 22, 2013, 10:08 am
#14
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Slightly off-topic question then:
If this is the most profitable route in the US, then...
1) What is the most profitable route from the US to anywhere in the world,
2) What is the most profitable route in the world (anywhere to anywhere, not just US)
If this is the most profitable route in the US, then...
1) What is the most profitable route from the US to anywhere in the world,
2) What is the most profitable route in the world (anywhere to anywhere, not just US)
May 22, 2013, 10:12 am
#15
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Status based comps - Much more generous on DL; free access for many elites to Economy Comfort at booking, free J upgrades. VX, on the other hand, only allows comped access to Main Cabin Select within 24hrs (at the outside) and upgrades to F are paid by all. In addition, VX has one additional Y+ seat on its flights vs. DL's transcon 757s.
Mileage upgrades - Not necessarily a huge factor, but VX doesn't offer any mileage upgrades while DL does. Bottom line, if you want to sit in F on VX you will pay for it with cash somehow.
Corporate contracts - Doubt VX has many and therefore the fares advertised are the fares paid. This is particularly relevant since there are likely very deep discounts to large companies, particularly for J. VX's J customers are paying full-fare (or discount upgrades within a short time before takeoff if available).
# of flights, aircraft type or seats sold is close to meaningless. It's all about revenue and net revenue. Look at the price differential between the highest premium and the lowest steerage fare bucket and you can see just how weighted profitability is in favor of high-paying premium seats as well as full fare steerage.