AlicorporateUK

A flawless analysis of the current state-of-affairs there - and here is reminder of why nobody and I mean nobody would be even merely considering to deal with a business that is heavily and largely influenced by politics/unions:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/bu....12202963.html

At the time (shortly before the previous controlled administration back in 2008), AF had made a proposal for a full take-over, including all debts and even limited re-structuring in terms of job losses, but the renowned italicus politics, together with their unions' friends, obviously opposed to it.

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NickB

If the tickets were issued by DL, then it would be for DL to sort out and reroute the passenger(s). If issued on AZ, then, yes, they would be worthless if AZ went into bankruptcy (subject to possible reimbursement from the credit card company depending on the jurisdiction).

Xandrios

How can this be so low? A few aircraft (and AZ does own some aircraft right) would already be worth more than this number?

WorldLux

Don't forget about the debt. I think that that number was what AF proposed for the share swaps. IIRC, they had agreed to pump more money in to pay off debts and invest into Alitalia.

brunos

I understand that many posters here have a stake in the future of AZ. IMO it is better to be pessimistic rather than unduly optimistic.

The current situation is quite different from 2008. No airline is interested in parts of AZ as a going concern. Airlines will wait for liquidation and see if they can pick up some parts (routes, planes, rehire some staff under a different contract,...).

Tricks to find investors, plaid or discussed in the past, won't work. The value of AZ assets is well below its debts. The EU will not look kindly at any disguised government subsidy. EY asked Hogan to step down because of his disastrous investments in other airlines and EY CEOs (current or future) won't add a cent to the EY debacle.
EY might own a big stake in the FFP, but it is a standalone entity not linked to EY FFP. If AZ goes bust, it is doubtful that the FFP is worth anything. Rather it will accumulate cash outflows (pay for awards to partners) and receive little cash inflows (credits for partners flights credited to MilleMiglia). It will be closed. If I had any miles, I would use them immediately with a partner, and hope that the ticket be issued.

The question is how long it will take for AZ to shut down. To buy an AZ ticket today would show total ignorance (many are still unaware but TAs and partner airlines are) or insanity. Hence AZ has little cash inflows, only cash expenses. If the Italian government is silly enough to manage to infuse some cash (with EU approval), it will delay the obvious outcome for a few weeks. Whether all the statements by Italian political parties is sincere or whether they are only gesturing and wait for the excuse of the EU refusal is an open question. Airlines like AFKL or LH who have lost so much in Italy will not ask their government to look kindly at any form of disguised aid.

Andy82

Yes - and the situation now is similar yet worse than 2008. The Italian parliament is again relatively close to a general election, so the government is neither stable nor powerful enough to do anything significant - imho.

2 hours ago, Ulrik Svensson - LH CFO - just said that the company is not interested in buying Alitalia. The rumored involvement of the main Italian railway company (FS) has also been dismissed.

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/notiz...?uuid=AEf4SPCB

BER Flyer

When Delta went into bankruptcy the "value" of the company was around $ 300 Million. You have to add the debt ( several billions ) and the upcoming obligations into the company's "value". Also, how much is a company worth that's bleeding nearly half a million $ every day...?

AlicorporateUK

According to Italy's Sole24Ore, the EU has agreed to a 400M€ state-funded bridge loan, this was confirmed by a member of the cabinet, Mr Calenda.

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AlicorporateUK

The Italian minister of economy, Padoan, has just released a statement saying that the measure was adopted to avoid an otherwise imminent halt of the day-to-day operations and it is only a one-off to facilitate the special commissioner's role in the next 6 months.

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AirCub1

Great news - gives a bit of extra time at least.

rje444

More Breaking News:

Todays' crucial shareholders was postponed at the last minute until May 2nd.

Formal and informal conversations are taking place between the various stakeholders in the interim, an Alitalia spokeswoman said.

Is some new plan being worked on? Who knows?

But still interesting is that former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi says he will "save" Alitalia if he wins re-election this Sunday. He would issue a plan by May 15, and says saving Alitalia can and must be done. "the conditions for a solution are all there."

Possible? Again who knows?

Does anyone here familiar with Italian politics think Renzi can win re-election?

rje444

Answering my own question is this opinion from Reuters. It appears likely that he takes leadership, but his chances of becoming PM again are less clear:

Italy's Renzi Set to Regain Leadership of Weakened Ruling Party

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...d-ruling-party

jbeans

Yay! Looks like my late-May flights will be safe! :-:

AlicorporateUK

Ironically (and by no means am I being saddened by the very latest events, which should represent some degree of assurance for the plenty of us here travelling in the forthcoming days, weeks and months), the government's decision will fuel up even further union's ambitions (laughable, but symptom of the significant ties with the Italian politics) together with their requests (clearly, out-of-context in this day & age). The government had a really good chance to get rid of them once for all, but it failed, again. And that also means that they (the unions) will be in a position to call for further strikes and impose their own will whenever possible, preventing any measure towards real growth. Shame, mostly considering that tangible steps forward were being made, especially in terms of J product (in every sense, a decent one and, in my opinion, one of the best for European standards), lounges (see Casa Alitalia) and even network (see the launch of SCL).

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brunos

Has anyone an idea on what is the daily cash outflow at AZ, expenses only like payroll, fuel, catering,..?
I guess that many expenses are paid less frequently than daily, but what is the daily equivalent?