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Beat of Hawaii: Southwest Airlines Trims Hawaii Routes By Over 50%

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Beat of Hawaii: Southwest Airlines Trims Hawaii Routes By Over 50%

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Old Mar 7, 2024, 7:12 pm
  #16  
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Originally Posted by sfozrhfco
WN doesn’t operate any overnight flights so any flight that arrives after 2pm or so can’t make it back to the main land in the same day. So they have to do something with it. Otherwise the plane would be parked from 2PM until the next morning—or they would only be able to operate morning departures from the West Coast which would have to do an immediate return.
But all their other planes are parked overnight - maybe not quite as long, but still, it seems odd in this day and age that they still won’t (can’t?) operate overnight flights.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/trave...ed-eye-flight/

Flying a 737 intra-island with a 30% load might add some revenue, but is it even anywhere near profitable?
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Old Mar 7, 2024, 8:33 pm
  #17  
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Originally Posted by WrightHI
Whose planes "sit for hours" before going back?
Many of UA, AA, and DL's aircraft, particularly the widebodies. Morning departures from the mainland, redeye departures back.
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Old Mar 7, 2024, 10:12 pm
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Originally Posted by sfozrhfco
WN doesn’t operate any overnight flights so any flight that arrives after 2pm or so can’t make it back to the main land in the same day.
Any idea what WN does during IRROPS? Will they not take off if they can't arrive before a specified time. It's always intrigued me that WN doesn't fly red-eyes and the whole Hawaii thing makes it even more interesting.

As for the OP, yeah, things here Maui are slow. As a resident I see a lot of it personally and just talk to other locals. It doesn't surprise me that they are trimming flights. Although, this really does seem like two discussions - mainland to Hawaii and inter-island. The inter-island has been largely anemic since WN entered the market (I know, I know, everyone's aunt's hairdresser was just on a full flight from HNL>OGG) whereas the mainland to Hawaii being slow is more of a new thing.
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Old Mar 8, 2024, 6:49 am
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff

Flying a 737 intra-island with a 30% load might add some revenue, but is it even anywhere near profitable?
WN simply could not make HI work without inter-island flying. Imagine a mainland to HI schedule without overnight flights returning. The last flight from the West Coast would be around 11AM to get it to return and of course even a 2 or 3PM flight back would mean no connections beyond that arrival point. Anything further than the West Coast and you have even less options. With a afternoon flight from the mainland to HI--even a noon flight means that the plane is operating one segment and then just sitting. Leaving Hawaii, nobody is going to want a 6AM departure back to the mainland either so you have half the morning with the plane just sitting as well. They have to move them around the islands as they can't operate a fleet with just one flight segment a day.

HI has a similar problem with the 717s as they have no flexibility to fly beyond the islands so they have to operate far more flights than may be necessary simply to make the economics work. If AS takes over these flights combined with the upcoming necessity to replace the 717s which are reaching their end of life, they are more likely to cycle planes through destinations outside of the islands. This is going to be the case anyway as there is no good aircraft to replace the 717s if the only mission is to fly very short flights within the islands all day--so they will be forced to fly them elsewhere. Overall this is going to mean less flights between the islands.

Last edited by sfozrhfco; Mar 8, 2024 at 7:22 am
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Old Mar 8, 2024, 10:21 am
  #20  
 
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Originally Posted by mtofell
Any idea what WN does during IRROPS? Will they not take off if they can't arrive before a specified time. It's always intrigued me that WN doesn't fly red-eyes and the whole Hawaii thing makes it even more interesting.
It is in their pilot's contract that they don't have to do overnight flights, so I would imagine after a certain point, they would have to cancel and send the plane out early the next morning. WN's management said they are looking at doing overnight flights but renegotiating their pilot contract and getting all the systems in place will not happen overnight. Thus for HI, they are stuck with the schedules they have now.
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Old Mar 8, 2024, 11:21 am
  #21  
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Originally Posted by mtofell
Any idea what WN does during IRROPS? Will they not take off if they can't arrive before a specified time. It's always intrigued me that WN doesn't fly red-eyes and the whole Hawaii thing makes it even more interesting.

As for the OP, yeah, things here Maui are slow. As a resident I see a lot of it personally and just talk to other locals. It doesn't surprise me that they are trimming flights. Although, this really does seem like two discussions - mainland to Hawaii and inter-island. The inter-island has been largely anemic since WN entered the market (I know, I know, everyone's aunt's hairdresser was just on a full flight from HNL>OGG) whereas the mainland to Hawaii being slow is more of a new thing.
I've got 12 inter island segments so far this year HNL, LIH, ITO and OGG. All 12 flights were packed full on HA. At ITO and LIH can see the SW gates for inter island flights while waiting for my HA flights and those SW flights don't have many people on them while the HA gates are packed. So even though the SW flights can be cheaper, people aren't flying them that much which tells me SW is using them more as repositioning flights than true inter island flights and throw a cheap price on them hoping to get some passengers between the islands. It will be very interesting if the merger does happen what Alaska will do about replacements for the 717's. If they keep their proudly Boeing the only choice is some form of 737 even though there may be much better options from other manufacturers. Most of the 717 flights are 20 minute turn arounds on the outer islands with longer in HNL (sometimes).
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Old Mar 8, 2024, 2:24 pm
  #22  
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Originally Posted by WrightHI
I expect them to basically keep doing what HA is doing plus try very hard to figure out how to make MKK and LNY work as a community relations effort.

ETA: In the short term, that is. Intermediate term they have to figure out 717 replacement. HA's schedule strength is an advantage they need to hang onto, but there isn't a good 128-seat replacement on offer, so it's going to be an interesting problem.
Suitable 717 replacement is only one issue. I expect current AS and HA labor contracts factor significantly in the decision. For example: does HA have different structures for TPAC ("mainline") and interisland crews? If yes, perhaps ALK could work something out with OO and/or QX to operate E-175's. Would result in more frequent flights.
Unless AS repurposes some of the older non-ETOPS fleet, I would be very surprised to see any 737s flying interisland.
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Old Mar 8, 2024, 4:39 pm
  #23  
 
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Originally Posted by sfozrhfco
WN simply could not make HI work without inter-island flying. Imagine a mainland to HI schedule without overnight flights returning. The last flight from the West Coast would be around 11AM to get it to return and of course even a 2 or 3PM flight back would mean no connections beyond that arrival point. Anything further than the West Coast and you have even less options. With a afternoon flight from the mainland to HI--even a noon flight means that the plane is operating one segment and then just sitting. Leaving Hawaii, nobody is going to want a 6AM departure back to the mainland either so you have half the morning with the plane just sitting as well. They have to move them around the islands as they can't operate a fleet with just one flight segment a day.

HI has a similar problem with the 717s as they have no flexibility to fly beyond the islands so they have to operate far more flights than may be necessary simply to make the economics work. If AS takes over these flights combined with the upcoming necessity to replace the 717s which are reaching their end of life, they are more likely to cycle planes through destinations outside of the islands. This is going to be the case anyway as there is no good aircraft to replace the 717s if the only mission is to fly very short flights within the islands all day--so they will be forced to fly them elsewhere. Overall this is going to mean less flights between the islands.
I can somewhat wrap my head around the first paragraph, even if I don't necessarily agree. There are markets along the west coast that support Hawaii flights without the need for connecting passengers and could support a late flight from the islands arriving after midnight. Nevertheless, the second paragraph just doesn't make sense. If operating the 717's required that they operate far more flights than they need to, then why not just reduce the fleet size to a manageable number of planes? There may be some fluff in the inter-island schedule that they could do without but before Southwest showed up, the inter-island flying was what was making Hawaiian so much $$$
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Old Mar 8, 2024, 4:40 pm
  #24  
 
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Originally Posted by sfozrhfco
It is in their pilot's contract that they don't have to do overnight flights, so I would imagine after a certain point, they would have to cancel and send the plane out early the next morning. WN's management said they are looking at doing overnight flights but renegotiating their pilot contract and getting all the systems in place will not happen overnight. Thus for HI, they are stuck with the schedules they have now.
Irrops happen and Southwest runs flights that get in at 3 or 4 or 5 am because of it. They can't schedule red-eyes, but they occasionally happen.
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Old Mar 8, 2024, 4:53 pm
  #25  
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Originally Posted by AS Flyer
Irrops happen and Southwest runs flights that get in at 3 or 4 or 5 am because of it. They can't schedule red-eyes, but they occasionally happen.
And WN's enhanced participation in GDSs and back end updating of systems have WN ready to pull the trigger on overnight flying, codesharing, interlining, etc. if and when it wants.
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Old Mar 8, 2024, 5:03 pm
  #26  
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Originally Posted by Eastbay1K
And WN's enhanced participation in GDSs and back end updating of systems have WN ready to pull the trigger on overnight flying, codesharing, interlining, etc. if and when it wants.

That is pretty much what the WaPo article I linked earlier said. I don’t think it talked about pilot contract restrictions being an issue.
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Old Mar 8, 2024, 6:13 pm
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Originally Posted by AS Flyer
I can somewhat wrap my head around the first paragraph, even if I don't necessarily agree. There are markets along the west coast that support Hawaii flights without the need for connecting passengers and could support a late flight from the islands arriving after midnight. Nevertheless, the second paragraph just doesn't make sense. If operating the 717's required that they operate far more flights than they need to, then why not just reduce the fleet size to a manageable number of planes? There may be some fluff in the inter-island schedule that they could do without but before Southwest showed up, the inter-island flying was what was making Hawaiian so much $$$
You are missing the point completely. WN can't operate overnight flights so they have the least amount of flexibility of any airline flying from the mainland to HI. Is it possible to operate late flights--sure---but they are not allowed to due to the pilot contract currently--thus the need to use the planes that arrive later than 2PM to fly around the islands as they have nothing else they can do with them. Not that complicated.

For the 717s, the point is they are stuck in HI. Unless they want to fly them into the Pacific, they can't fly anything other than flights to another neighboring island. The only way to fully utilize the fleet is to fly endless short cycles to neighboring islands--whether the capacity on any given day is needed or not. It is a similar issue that WN has. The only options are to have the aircraft sit or to fly it somewhere and hope that a few seats or some cargo capacity will be sold to give them some revenue.

If an airline like AS or one of the US3 were to take over the inter island flights, those constraints would not exist. They don't need to operate on a capacity constrained aircraft short distances and would have the flexibility to fly those planes elsewhere. They could also use larger planes to consolidate flights which would connect on to the mainland. Given that flexibility, it would not make sense for AS to keep all of the flights that HA has now running between islands. Is it really necessary to have a 537AM and 6AM departure from HNL to OGG every day? No. One larger plane at 545AM would be just fine and that plane would not be constrained to return to another island---it could fly onto any other destination to which that aircraft has the capacity to fly. This flexibility does have its own drawbacks though.

No other aircraft that is currently available is better than that 717 for flying very short distances with short turn arounds in a tropical area. Thus whatever plane is going to replace the 717s is going to be less efficient than what HA has now. If AS goes with the MAX as can be expected given the AS management team, those planes are going to need a break and can't do 20 segments a day flying 20 minute flights with very short turn arounds. They will either need longer turns between flights or will have to cycle them through the mainland. The first option automatically leads to less flights per day. The 2nd option means that the most likely scenario is that the needs of the mainland passengers are prioritized over inter island ones and it will be difficult to maintain the frequency that HA has now.
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Old Mar 9, 2024, 4:33 am
  #28  
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Originally Posted by CathayMVP
Honestly I am here for it. Nothing against Hawaii but when I can travel the world for cheaper, why would I go to Hawaii for exorbitant prices. The market will fix itself and if it doesn't, fewer visitors but it means higher visitors who pay more, which is what Hawaii wants. No need to cater to the few who don't want to spend the money.

Hawaii's economy will also continue to evolve and expand, they couldn't rely on tourism forever and so I am hoping they have the economic capabilities to grow and expand elsewhere

Go Hawaii!!
I adore Hawaii. I own a Condo in Waikiki believe it or not - purchased when there were scads more $ to the £. Hawaii has been the graveyard of more than one airline as those distances simply cannot make money without charging eye-watering fares. I have not been back for a little whilst so I have no idea if there are as many Louis Vuiton shops which are frequented by no one west of the islands. Above this the prices are simply ridiculous. I looked at the Ala Moana hotel which is near the Condo - for a week the taxes and fees alone on the cheapest room came to $600. A week for $2000 in what is and always was a Flight Crew flop house. I am surprised anyone goes.What they'd do if the military left is I cannot imagine.
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Old Mar 9, 2024, 11:59 pm
  #29  
 
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Originally Posted by sfozrhfco
You are missing the point completely. WN can't operate overnight flights so they have the least amount of flexibility of any airline flying from the mainland to HI. Is it possible to operate late flights--sure---but they are not allowed to due to the pilot contract currently--thus the need to use the planes that arrive later than 2PM to fly around the islands as they have nothing else they can do with them. Not that complicated.

For the 717s, the point is they are stuck in HI. Unless they want to fly them into the Pacific, they can't fly anything other than flights to another neighboring island. The only way to fully utilize the fleet is to fly endless short cycles to neighboring islands--whether the capacity on any given day is needed or not. It is a similar issue that WN has. The only options are to have the aircraft sit or to fly it somewhere and hope that a few seats or some cargo capacity will be sold to give them some revenue.

If an airline like AS or one of the US3 were to take over the inter island flights, those constraints would not exist. They don't need to operate on a capacity constrained aircraft short distances and would have the flexibility to fly those planes elsewhere. They could also use larger planes to consolidate flights which would connect on to the mainland. Given that flexibility, it would not make sense for AS to keep all of the flights that HA has now running between islands. Is it really necessary to have a 537AM and 6AM departure from HNL to OGG every day? No. One larger plane at 545AM would be just fine and that plane would not be constrained to return to another island---it could fly onto any other destination to which that aircraft has the capacity to fly. This flexibility does have its own drawbacks though.

No other aircraft that is currently available is better than that 717 for flying very short distances with short turn arounds in a tropical area. Thus whatever plane is going to replace the 717s is going to be less efficient than what HA has now. If AS goes with the MAX as can be expected given the AS management team, those planes are going to need a break and can't do 20 segments a day flying 20 minute flights with very short turn arounds. They will either need longer turns between flights or will have to cycle them through the mainland. The first option automatically leads to less flights per day. The 2nd option means that the most likely scenario is that the needs of the mainland passengers are prioritized over inter island ones and it will be difficult to maintain the frequency that HA has now.

Southwest flights can leave the islands right up to late afternoon and get to most west coast cities at times that are completely legal to schedule vis-à-vis the Southwest pilots contract. The inter-island flying isn’t necessary for Southwest, certainly not to the extent they operate it. Connecting traffic isn’t necessary to make the flights work either. They operate very late flights between other cities already.

with respect to your second paragraph, if what you’re insinuating is true, a smaller fleet would enable good utilization and fewer flights if the flights they operate aren’t needed. Hawaiian clearly has seen a need for the flights they operate or they would simply not operate such a robust schedule. There’s not a single thing saying those planes have to do 20 minute turn arounds. I’m also curious where you’re getting your information from that there isn’t a plane currently available that could do a high number of short flights with short turn times. Southwest’s entire business model used to be based on that exact idea, using none other then the… 737. Aloha used the same plane, doing the same thing… in Hawaii. For a lot of years. I understand this doesn’t serve your “Hawaiian is doomed if Alaska buys them” subliminal message, but they’re facts.
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Old Mar 10, 2024, 1:18 am
  #30  
 
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Pre-Covid I visited Hawaii four or so times per year. I return this week, but have not visited in over a year.

Really do not like the anti-visitor sentiment, high upfront costs…and high taxes. Didn’t feel the Aloha last trip.

if things don’t feel different after my flight back to the mainland next week, will be quite a while before I spend money in the islands again.
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