sfozrhfco

That is already outdated. The latest inflation report showed that airfares are down 13.2% from October 2022 to October 2023.

TalkingPoint

It doesn’t matter what cash prices have done, it’s how Mileage Plan stacks up against other programs. Mileage plan used to have many sweet spots but not almost never is the cheapest option.

For example, I just booked a J award on AF for 100k miles rt to europe. That same redemption is now 170k AS miles. A 70% premium with way higher fees. Add in that AF FB miles are transferable from many cc programs, often with a bonus. And include the same stopover AS offers. Not to mention AF J being a better product than BA J…

LAX-DOH on qr j is now cheaper using b6 miles than as miles. If I told you that would be the state of Alaska a couple years ago you wouldn’t have believed me.

VegasGambler

Here's is my regular usage for AS miles:

• SFO/LAX - TYO in J: 60k -> 75k (+25%). Available on AA for 60k.
• SFO/LAX - TYO in F: 70k -> 110k (+57%). Available on AA for 80k.
• SFO/LAX - BKK w/ TYO stopover in J: 65k -> 85k (+30%). Available on AA as 2 awards for 90k (70k as 1 award w/ no stopover)
• SFO/LAX - BKK w/ TYO stopover in F: 75k -> 130k (+73%). Available on AA as 2 awards for 110k (also 110k as 1 award w/ no stopover) Would be 160k on AS as 2 awards.

I've also booked KE J; 105k RT to ICN or 120k RT to southeast Asia; those are now going to be 150k (+42%) and and 170k (+41%).

And finally to get to Europe; LAX-HEL-FCO (7003 miles; ouch) 70k -> 85k (+21%). This could be reduced to 75k by changing the origin or destination slightly to get it under 7k miles. Available for 57.5k on AA with no stopover, or 80k as 2 awards.

So basically, for my travel patterns, this devalues AS miles pretty significantly. I'm going to estimate it at about 35% overall.

An AA mile is now clearly far more valuable to me than an AS mile -- it's no longer even close. Even stopovers don't save AS here, because I can just book 2 AA awards for about the same price or less.

I'm probably going to try to burn off the rest of my AS miles (by booking future trips) before this takes effect. I have about 320k left so it should be doable. After that, my switch to AA will be complete.

Smiley90

Damn. Sad to see, but predictable. More aligned with AA now, and AA has way easier ways to get miles...

VegasGambler

That's a nice sweet spot; I'll need to keep an eye out for those. As you say flying blue miles are easily transferable from CCs.

Pretty much everything is cheaper using AA miles than AS miles now. I really don't see what AS has going for it as an airline any more. Very restricted network and miles that are now, maybe, worth about the same as UA miles.

TalkingPoint

At least until the AA devalue comes… but yes AA is pretty much better for all routes from the US unless you’re trying to book a stopover it brings it in line. My most common route is LAX-HKG and asia miles, after their recent devaluation, is cheaper than AS in both J and F. Not the mention a lot easier to earn (many cc transfer partners) and way better availability… so it’s going from a sweet spot to worse than either AA or CX.

VegasGambler

It's not only flights to/from the US. Flights between Asia 1 and Asia 2 are 30k AA miles in J. 1500-3000 mile flights (which will get you from East Asia to Southest Asia... say, TYO-BKK) are 50k AS miles. That's crazy (and I think this is a common route for award redemptions; it's not just some crazy corner case)

bmvaughn

I cannot find the article now, but I seem to recall that most award redemptions are for domestic US travel in coach. Using miles for international business is literally an edge case.

olouie

Agree that AA mile redemptions are often lower, but its so easy to rack up AS miles with BA premium cabin and 100k bonuses.

TalkingPoint

Except these "edge cases" are the only reason why people are interested in AS miles...

Mwenenzi

In Oneworld AS are only part of the demand and part of the availability. With AS being short haul - regional my guess is AS freq flyers mainly want long awards. Business class preferred. Not that many looking for awards on AS.
As many frequent flyer programs are morphing to frequent spender programs ff miles/points/avios are being printed in enormous quantities. Massive demand for award seats. Reduced award availability:- maybe or maybe not. Increased demand is not matched to supply .With no to little air travel in 2020-2021 (CV19) is still a large pent up demand. I had AU-USA-AU business class award (QF points) in 2020 but yet to do that trip.
As for other ffp's ff miles/avios/points are not equal to earn or to burn(plus cash surcharges), even with many credit cards transferring at the same rate. Earn to burn is what matters if award trips are the objective of a ffp
No doubt others of the bloggers will do more comparisons AS old - AS new - others ffp

5khours

I don't think we're talking about a year ago. We're talking pre-Covid.

TalkingPoint

How many 100k's fly BA paid J/F? This is applicable to a very small minority of AS mile earners, although I'm included in that subset. Based on the prices AS will be charging, they need a CC transfer partner.

bmvaughn

Perhaps FTers, but not the average customer

5khours

Also, I think one thing people are overlooking is that AS miles are about the only ones that you can buy in unlimited quantities.