Investor Day Highlights

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Old Feb 8, 19, 11:11 am
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Investor Day Highlights

Not sure the Investor Day materials were shared. This pre-dates the Q4 Earnings call transcript I shared earlier. Here is a link to the presentation:
http://investor.alaskaair.com/static...a-452723220c5b

Here are some snapshots from the presentation I think FT'ers would appreciate. Some discussion of the revenue side, staffing, the VISA card, and partner accruals.




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Old Feb 8, 19, 11:30 am
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Interesting; thanks for sharing!
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Old Feb 8, 19, 3:46 pm
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Thanks for sharing and excerpting. Wondering how 2019 mileage accrual for partners in premium cabin will look, given the Cathay fares!
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Old Feb 8, 19, 9:13 pm
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Where are the $400 average F fares hiding!!?? (Besides SEA-PDX & SFO/SJC-LAX)
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Old Feb 8, 19, 10:10 pm
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Originally Posted by DrAlex View Post
Where are the $400 average F fares hiding!!?? (Besides SEA-PDX & SFO/SJC-LAX)
I'm guessing these are the short hops such as SEA-PDX. SFO-LAX is often $179 in F more than three weeks out.
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Old Feb 9, 19, 8:49 am
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Originally Posted by jjmadison View Post
I'm guessing these are the short hops such as SEA-PDX. SFO-LAX is often $179 in F more than three weeks out.
Indeed. Which is why "average F fare" is a rather meaningless metric - it's a much better indicator of average stage length of revenue F tickets compared to premium cabin yields.
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Old Feb 9, 19, 9:27 am
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Did they report the PRASM, both current and projected? Break out the PRASM by cabin? Identify particularly high-profit flights? Or is that all too proprietary to share?
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Old Feb 9, 19, 10:33 am
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@AndyPatterson: If you want to dive deep, here is the transcript of the presentation and Q&A from the Investor Day:
http://investor.alaskaair.com/static...2-deaac374899a

Re: PRASM - the presentation was a little cagey about this. And it shows in the transcript above where analysts ask about RASM. The presentation suggests RASM for 4Q at 3-5%. But the analysts pushed back a bit suggesting that 2% load capacity growth should show more growth. They definitely do not breakout by segment - its aggregated across all the revenue streams to get to a system level number.

Revenue discussion starts at slide 75 of the presentation: http://investor.alaskaair.com/static...a-452723220c5b

Another element they are clearly still figuring out is the cost side of things, and cross-fleeting is a large part of this. The flight attendants can be cross-fleeted, but not pilots. So they productivity drags from the merger are still there and probably won't get back to pre-merger based on the costs of pilot productivity.
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Old Feb 9, 19, 10:43 am
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Originally Posted by PVDtoDEL View Post
Indeed. Which is why "average F fare" is a rather meaningless metric - it's a much better indicator of average stage length of revenue F tickets compared to premium cabin yields.
It is not even an indicator or average state length as they don't define how they are calculating the average. Is a $50 fee to upgrade at the gate counted in the average? Would the coach portion of the fare be added to the $50 to make it look higher? If 15 people are getting free upgrades and 1 person pays $179 for F, the average is actually only $11.19 in extra revenue per F seat that the F cabin on that flight generated. There are numerous ways to make it look better or worse to get whatever result you like. AS is also not selling $10,000 one way international flights like the legacies do so if AS had the same average as competitors, their stock price would be much higher that it has ever been.
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Old Feb 9, 19, 10:46 am
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Originally Posted by PVDtoDEL View Post
Indeed. Which is why "average F fare" is a rather meaningless metric - it's a much better indicator of average stage length of revenue F tickets compared to premium cabin yields.
On a product with a pretty big spread in value ($200 F on numerous short runs vs $1600 F on a smaller set of longer runs) a mean is a crummy measure. (Ideally median or some other statistic to represent the distribution...) But it is for comparison purposes here - which could be more meaningful IF we can assume similar routes and price distributions. So, yeah take a block of salt with that number....
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Old Feb 9, 19, 11:40 am
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Originally Posted by williwaw View Post
@AndyPatterson: If you want to dive deep, here is the transcript of the presentation and Q&A from the Investor Day:
http://investor.alaskaair.com/static...2-deaac374899a

Re: PRASM - the presentation was a little cagey about this. And it shows in the transcript above where analysts ask about RASM. The presentation suggests RASM for 4Q at 3-5%. But the analysts pushed back a bit suggesting that 2% load capacity growth should show more growth. They definitely do not breakout by segment - its aggregated across all the revenue streams to get to a system level number.

Revenue discussion starts at slide 75 of the presentation: http://investor.alaskaair.com/static...a-452723220c5b

Another element they are clearly still figuring out is the cost side of things, and cross-fleeting is a large part of this. The flight attendants can be cross-fleeted, but not pilots. So they productivity drags from the merger are still there and probably won't get back to pre-merger based on the costs of pilot productivity.
The cross fleet issue is "one" reason that AS went to an all 737 fleet some time ago (there are other reasons such as maintenance, etc.) as MD-90 pilots and 737 pilots did not intermingle and that was a problem if you had to switch crews at a non-hub city.. It begs the question of whether or not Alaska will be looking at uniforming the fleet once again. If so, it will take some time.
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Old Feb 9, 19, 2:39 pm
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Yes I think AS would like to get back to a single fleet type. But this will take time, as additional frames need to be acquired, plus more pilot training. We'll see how the 737-MAX performs for AS once it's on property.
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Old Feb 9, 19, 5:02 pm
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Originally Posted by beckoa View Post
Yes I think AS would like to get back to a single fleet type. But this will take time, as additional frames need to be acquired, plus more pilot training. We'll see how the 737-MAX performs for AS once it's on property.
I’d expect they will get rid of A319s and A320s as their leases expire, but that will take some years. The A321NEOs are an attractive plane for transcons, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see those stay in the fleet, unless it doesn’t perform up to expectations.
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