[Speculation] Fall 2018 New AS Route Announcement
#16
Join Date: May 2006
Location: TUS/PDX
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The reality is, Alaska added 12 cities and kept 8 of them. Would have been great if they had been able to keep all of them but they typically don't like to lose money so they decided there were better uses of those resources.
(Charlotte isn't in their plans... or so they say - that too could change)
(Charlotte isn't in their plans... or so they say - that too could change)
Can they still claim they have the "#mostwestcoast" departures?
#17
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Location: Bay Area, CA
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So you used an example where UA exited a route and left customers with an alliance partner who also offers the route nonstop, up to 2x a day, or if you're connecting, the ability to use a different, and based on flows, likely logical hub to connect through (UA SFO-SIN still exists, 2x a day).
#18
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,848
Unless there is a massive draw down, AS can still claim that AS has the most that AS has ever had. Everything is relative
#19
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So you used an example where UA exited a route and left customers with an alliance partner who also offers the route nonstop, up to 2x a day, or if you're connecting, the ability to use a different, and based on flows, likely logical hub to connect through (UA SFO-SIN still exists, 2x a day).
Or are you saying that UA always intended to hand that LAX-SIN route to Singapore Airlines and just wanted to keep its planes and crew “busy” while they figured out a way to put a second flight into SFO?
If so, how about SFO-XIY (Xi’an) then. United’s own statement:
via https://liveandletsfly.boardingarea....airlines-xian/
“In every market we serve, we continuously review and measure demand and performance. Corporate traffic between SFO and XIY has not increased as fast as originally forecast. After careful analysis, we determined this route is not currently meeting our expectations and is no longer sustainable.”
Pretty much what i said
VX fanboys should look at all the routes that VX tried and abandoned in its short history.
#20
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yes. But the point I was making was that probably all airlines decide based on whatever data they have to try a new route. Then after a while they might discover that for whatever reason it doesn’t work (maybe their data was bad/insufficient, maybe something changed, ...), and so they conclude that it is best to reverse the decision.
Or are you saying that UA always intended to hand that LAX-SIN route to Singapore Airlines and just wanted to keep its planes and crew “busy” while they figured out a way to put a second flight into SFO?
If so, how about SFO-XIY (Xi’an) then. United’s own statement:
via https://liveandletsfly.boardingarea....airlines-xian/
“In every market we serve, we continuously review and measure demand and performance. Corporate traffic between SFO and XIY has not increased as fast as originally forecast. After careful analysis, we determined this route is not currently meeting our expectations and is no longer sustainable.”
Pretty much what i said
VX fanboys should look at all the routes that VX tried and abandoned in its short history.
Or are you saying that UA always intended to hand that LAX-SIN route to Singapore Airlines and just wanted to keep its planes and crew “busy” while they figured out a way to put a second flight into SFO?
If so, how about SFO-XIY (Xi’an) then. United’s own statement:
via https://liveandletsfly.boardingarea....airlines-xian/
“In every market we serve, we continuously review and measure demand and performance. Corporate traffic between SFO and XIY has not increased as fast as originally forecast. After careful analysis, we determined this route is not currently meeting our expectations and is no longer sustainable.”
Pretty much what i said
VX fanboys should look at all the routes that VX tried and abandoned in its short history.
When AS pulls out, that's it. There's no going there on AS or partners in many cases.
#21
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The point is it's often a bigger deal when AS cuts something because they lack the depth of network and partners to cover for it. Even a place like XIY is still served by a handful of partners, so the impact is mitigated.
When AS pulls out, that's it. There's no going there on AS or partners in many cases.
When AS pulls out, that's it. There's no going there on AS or partners in many cases.
The fact that they no longer have DL and to a large extend AA to fall back on isn’t going to change. I am not smart enough to decide if they would have been in a better situation today if they had let B6 buy VX. I am smart enough to know that me spending time thinking/debating about that won’t be a good investment of my time.
Also, did anyone seriously expect that AS would be able to out-network UA at SFO?
And for me personally, if AS or one of its partners isn’t flying where I need to go, I will just fly someone else. Or if AS is too expensive. Or the flight isn’t conveniently scheduled. #FreeAgentForTheWin
Last edited by notquiteaff; Aug 25, 2018 at 12:34 pm
#23
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,848
Outside of SEA, they have lots of things stacked against them unless they can show Wall Street they are reversing the slide they have been in for more than a year. Even in SEA they are forced into flights they don’t really need to prevent the airport from reallocating the gate space.
#24
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Outside of SEA, they have lots of things stacked against them unless they can show Wall Street they are reversing the slide they have been in for more than a year. Even in SEA they are forced into flights they don’t really need to prevent the airport from reallocating the gate space.
LAX isn't a bad place for them to grow - it's not a fortress hub for anybody and doesn't have the weather delay & cancellation issues that SFO does, which are harder for AS and its more limited capacity to recover from, compared to UA. Their load in/out of the LA area seems light though, based on my ability as an MVP to get upgrades while SEA and SFO based 75Ks are complaining about being 40th on the upgrade list. They have ok coverage of large east coast cities from LA, where there's enough population at both ends to keep the planes full, even if they don't have the frequency or network of the US3. And they can use LA to feed both international partners and HI flights (though they'd be going head to head with UA for HI, compared to most of their HI flights being from the PNW with less direct competition).
Last edited by chrisl137; Aug 25, 2018 at 3:15 pm Reason: typo
#25
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IND, sure...give it a try, if it doesn't work, it doesn't work. But some of these others are some pretty big markets they're cutting. Perhaps something is wrong with their marketing or execution.
#26
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SFO has weather issues on bad days. LAX has ATC issues on good days now.
#27
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
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Of course not. But did anyone seriously expect they couldn't hold down one daily to FLL (or MIA), or a huge market like MEX?
IND, sure...give it a try, if it doesn't work, it doesn't work. But some of these others are some pretty big markets they're cutting. Perhaps something is wrong with their marketing or execution.
Of course not. But did anyone seriously expect they couldn't hold down one daily to FLL (or MIA), or a huge market like MEX?
IND, sure...give it a try, if it doesn't work, it doesn't work. But some of these others are some pretty big markets they're cutting. Perhaps something is wrong with their marketing or execution.
The only top market cut ex-SFO was DEN, which is a highly competitive bloodbath. If more top markets are cut, I think the skepticism may become justified.
#28
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I didn't realize it had gotten that bad - I'm usually on really early flights before any problems hit, or really late ones after they've had time to recover, and that's mostly to avoid traffic on the roads. Is it related to all the runway work that's been going on or just too much total volume?
#29
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both ... I was thru LAX probably twice a month for the past year-plus; it seemed like one of the four runways was almost always out of service for some reason or other, and it was a rare poin in time that I couldn’t see half a dozen landing lights out to the east and half a dozen departing jets lined up on both the north and south taxiways
#30
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When I was living near SFO, I always had trouble getting to/fro southern Florida on my preferred airline (United). I just checked and it appears UA has one daily nonstop to MIA. And another one to FLL (I think at one time they were only flying to FLL). AA appears to have four flights to MIA. With a one way fare of $121 three weeks out, it may just not be a very profitable market.