Upcoming AS Route Cuts
Feb 28, 2018, 7:26 pm
#211
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Midwest
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum Pro, UA Premier Platinum, IHG Platinum Elite, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 190
You are missing quite a lot. Just because AS has a single flight to a few random cities in the middle of the country does not a network make. I have a co-worker going to ORD next week. Previously he would have taken the 450PM flight on VX. Now there is only a single morning flight meaning that he will be on UA or AA. Is the city served? Yes, but if the flight is not at a time that works and other carriers offer many flights a day, you have just lost a customer and loyalty. I have booked 1,000s of tickets for our employees and many have gone to DEN not a single one has gone to IND. Thus having a single flight to IND and no flights to DEN means that for us, the network becomes less relevant.
I avoided UA for years but have found myself taking them a couple times in the last few months because they are the best of the not so great options presented on many routes. I am simply not willing to fly twice as long at a higher price for a product that is not twice as good.
I avoided UA for years but have found myself taking them a couple times in the last few months because they are the best of the not so great options presented on many routes. I am simply not willing to fly twice as long at a higher price for a product that is not twice as good.
Mar 1, 2018, 2:12 pm
#212
Join Date: May 2003
Location: SFO, mostly
Posts: 2,204
Regarding cuts from SFO, AS generally hasn't shown much hesitation when it comes to cutting unprofitable routes (some of the QX point-to-point service they launched 5-10 years ago in CA, AZ, NV and UT comes to mind here). If they can't make money flying 1x a day SFO-___ when the competition is flying multiple frequencies, it will probably be gone. Keep in mind AS, SFO is an expensive airport in terms of landing fees, highly gate constrained and also a total disaster operationally. For example today there were just some rain showers this morning and SFO is experiencing delays averaging over 4 hours per faa.gov! The only reason to maintain a substantial presence at SFO is if you can successfully attract and retain high yield business. But, if you are just going to offer a lowest-common denominator product, there is tons of competition already on most routes from WN and UA on the west coast, and DL, AA and B6 when it comes to transcons. Ultimately, I wouldn't be surprised to see AS continue to expand more in SJC and leave operations at SFO where they are, if not contract slightly.
Mar 1, 2018, 3:52 pm
#213
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,639
That seems like a pretty big chunk of their ex-SFO network. Their strategy a few months ago appeared to be kitchen sink at SFO - start as much as possible based on the resources they had available at the time, and grow from there. Now they're dialing back less profitable routes while at the same time most other routes seem to be facing increasing downward pricing pressure from multiple comers. So who knows now. They could resume more growth at SJC but they're facing significant competition from WN there, not to mention they could have done that without spending $2.6 billion buying a hub at SFO. I doubt there's any more low hanging fruit there.
Mar 1, 2018, 5:48 pm
#214
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Midwest
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum Pro, UA Premier Platinum, IHG Platinum Elite, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 190
That seems like a pretty big chunk of their ex-SFO network. Their strategy a few months ago appeared to be kitchen sink at SFO - start as much as possible based on the resources they had available at the time, and grow from there. Now they're dialing back less profitable routes while at the same time most other routes seem to be facing increasing downward pricing pressure from multiple comers. So who knows now. They could resume more growth at SJC but they're facing significant competition from WN there, not to mention they could have done that without spending $2.6 billion buying a hub at SFO. I doubt there's any more low hanging fruit there.
Mar 1, 2018, 5:58 pm
#215
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,639
See posts above about how low yielding SJC mid/transcons are for AS. The routes they haven't started yet are not likely to be more profitable than the ones they've previously decided to serve. And WN's network is much larger than AS's and growing quickly.
Mar 1, 2018, 6:37 pm
#216
Join Date: May 2003
Location: SFO, mostly
Posts: 2,204
https://centreforaviation.com/insigh...-market-366300
Mar 2, 2018, 9:27 am
#219
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: Over the Bay Bridge, CA
Programs: Jumbo mas
Posts: 38,631
Mar 2, 2018, 11:07 pm
#220
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: SFO/OAK
Programs: WN A-List, Alaska MVP
Posts: 47
No official announcement yet, but I understand June 5 will be the last day on SFO-DEN. Not great for me either, last year when it was 3x I took it all the time. With the late PM/early AM RON in DEN gone, I've had to do UA most of the time recently.
Mar 2, 2018, 11:39 pm
#221
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Between SFO and STS
Programs: Alaska MVP Gold, United Serf, Delta Gold
Posts: 731
Mar 3, 2018, 12:34 am
#222
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,331
The loss of SFO-DEN, if confirmed, is a pretty big deal. Both cities are booming, both are major tech hubs, and in my experience most of these flights are pretty heavy with business travelers. Yields for "good" flights -- i.e. business travel friendly -- are not that bad. It often costs more to go to DEN than NYC/BOS,
If AS can't make this one work... things are pretty dismal indeed...
If AS can't make this one work... things are pretty dismal indeed...
Mar 4, 2018, 7:46 am
#223
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,639
SFO-DEN killed, as expected. Also PDX-STL.
Mar 4, 2018, 8:28 am
#224
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,848
SFO/LAX-ORD was also reduced down to 2 flights a day in the summer and only 1 flight on Saturday. That is not a very competitive schedule during peak season. There is still way too much capacity on SFO-LAX. The fares are ridiculously low.
Mar 4, 2018, 9:41 am
#225
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 339
Well, I already moved most all my business away from AS out of DEN...but this pretty much will eliminate the rest of it. I fly a lot of DEN-California stuff and connecting in SFO was the only reasonable option left on AS for a lot of it.
I have no idea how AS expects to compete in a market as big as DEN by only offering flights to SEA. As mentioned above if they can’t make DEN-SFO work in times like these I don’t know what routes they can. Clearly they aren’t planning on adding PDX either.
I have no idea how AS expects to compete in a market as big as DEN by only offering flights to SEA. As mentioned above if they can’t make DEN-SFO work in times like these I don’t know what routes they can. Clearly they aren’t planning on adding PDX either.