upgrades question
Jan 15, 2015, 12:16 am
#1
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Join Date: Oct 2014
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upgrades question
So far I have 4/5 trips successfully upgraded to first class this year, I am 75k, and my first 4 trips are upgraded to first class exactly at 120 hours before departure time, except this upcoming one, which I am still on fare class T (I have no idea why this one ended up with T instead of R) and it shows waitlisted.
My question is, if I didn't get roll-in as 75k, pretty much means it is full, right? or there is a possibility that any first class seat will becoming available between now and the departure day? How likely that would happen?
Cheers guys
My question is, if I didn't get roll-in as 75k, pretty much means it is full, right? or there is a possibility that any first class seat will becoming available between now and the departure day? How likely that would happen?
Cheers guys
Jan 15, 2015, 1:00 am
#2
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So far I have 4/5 trips successfully upgraded to first class this year, I am 75k, and my first 4 trips are upgraded to first class exactly at 120 hours before departure time, except this upcoming one, which I am still on fare class T (I have no idea why this one ended up with T instead of R) and it shows waitlisted.
My question is, if I didn't get roll-in as 75k, pretty much means it is full, right? or there is a possibility that any first class seat will becoming available between now and the departure day? How likely that would happen?
Cheers guys
My question is, if I didn't get roll-in as 75k, pretty much means it is full, right? or there is a possibility that any first class seat will becoming available between now and the departure day? How likely that would happen?
Cheers guys
AS may be holding back inventory they think they can sell (or F could be full), but will release it for upgrade if it isn't.
Plus, you might have an F pax who change their mind and get off your flight... or you could get an F pax who gets ON to your flight.
I'd say, don't think about it too hard.
Jan 15, 2015, 1:11 am
#3
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I'd say sit tight and be optimistic. Use EF to see if there are any F seats for sale.
AS may be holding back inventory they think they can sell (or F could be full), but will release it for upgrade if it isn't.
Plus, you might have an F pax who change their mind and get off your flight... or you could get an F pax who gets ON to your flight.
I'd say, don't think about it too hard.
AS may be holding back inventory they think they can sell (or F could be full), but will release it for upgrade if it isn't.
Plus, you might have an F pax who change their mind and get off your flight... or you could get an F pax who gets ON to your flight.
I'd say, don't think about it too hard.
Jan 15, 2015, 1:14 am
#4
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Jan 15, 2015, 1:24 am
#5
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Jan 15, 2015, 1:56 am
#6
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According to the algorithm set by AS, they think they can sell the seat. Some folks do buy last minute F fares, or like having the flexibility to change dates and still have seats left. So it could go either way.
Originally Posted by WinSea
Jan 15, 2015, 7:21 am
#7
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It's MLK JR day on the 19th. Could that be part of it?
DTW is now F2 Y7 Z7 S0 so it seems like a pretty packed flight. Seat map shows 5 empty in F so it just looks like some people do not have seat assignments up there. 12 seats are X'd out in back (looks like they have not determined new vs old config) there are also 16 unassigned seats blocked for elites so some Y passengers likely don't have seat assignment. It doesn't look good
Both ORD flights are completely sold out and MSP is only Y2.
DTW is now F2 Y7 Z7 S0 so it seems like a pretty packed flight. Seat map shows 5 empty in F so it just looks like some people do not have seat assignments up there. 12 seats are X'd out in back (looks like they have not determined new vs old config) there are also 16 unassigned seats blocked for elites so some Y passengers likely don't have seat assignment. It doesn't look good
Both ORD flights are completely sold out and MSP is only Y2.
Last edited by CDKing; Jan 15, 2015 at 7:33 am Reason: Looked closer at flight
Jan 15, 2015, 8:44 am
#8
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It's MLK JR day on the 19th. Could that be part of it?
DTW is now F2 Y7 Z7 S0 so it seems like a pretty packed flight. Seat map shows 5 empty in F so it just looks like some people do not have seat assignments up there. 12 seats are X'd out in back (looks like they have not determined new vs old config) there are also 16 unassigned seats blocked for elites so some Y passengers likely don't have seat assignment. It doesn't look good
Both ORD flights are completely sold out and MSP is only Y2.
DTW is now F2 Y7 Z7 S0 so it seems like a pretty packed flight. Seat map shows 5 empty in F so it just looks like some people do not have seat assignments up there. 12 seats are X'd out in back (looks like they have not determined new vs old config) there are also 16 unassigned seats blocked for elites so some Y passengers likely don't have seat assignment. It doesn't look good
Both ORD flights are completely sold out and MSP is only Y2.
Jan 17, 2015, 12:56 pm
#9
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It's MLK JR day on the 19th. Could that be part of it?
DTW is now F2 Y7 Z7 S0 so it seems like a pretty packed flight. Seat map shows 5 empty in F so it just looks like some people do not have seat assignments up there. 12 seats are X'd out in back (looks like they have not determined new vs old config) there are also 16 unassigned seats blocked for elites so some Y passengers likely don't have seat assignment. It doesn't look good
Both ORD flights are completely sold out and MSP is only Y2.
DTW is now F2 Y7 Z7 S0 so it seems like a pretty packed flight. Seat map shows 5 empty in F so it just looks like some people do not have seat assignments up there. 12 seats are X'd out in back (looks like they have not determined new vs old config) there are also 16 unassigned seats blocked for elites so some Y passengers likely don't have seat assignment. It doesn't look good
Both ORD flights are completely sold out and MSP is only Y2.
I wonder what algorithms AS uses to predict first class sales, I guess base on their flight history? Seems like people tend to do paid upgrades when fly to Seattle from ny.
Jan 17, 2015, 4:08 pm
#10
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You are right, it doesn't look good, compare this route to SEA-PHL, it seems upgrades are not as easy. Right now the F class departure flight is filling up and returning is completely full.
I wonder what algorithms AS uses to predict first class sales, I guess base on their flight history? Seems like people tend to do paid upgrades when fly to Seattle from ny.
I wonder what algorithms AS uses to predict first class sales, I guess base on their flight history? Seems like people tend to do paid upgrades when fly to Seattle from ny.
Jan 17, 2015, 11:14 pm
#11
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That's the job of revenue management, to predict how many they can sell at the price that maximize revenue. They will hold some paid F seats until day of flight.
If FT only had access to this formula 
Originally Posted by seacarl
You are right, it doesn't look good, compare this route to SEA-PHL, it seems upgrades are not as easy. Right now the F class departure flight is filling up and returning is completely full.
I wonder what algorithms AS uses to predict first class sales, I guess base on their flight history? Seems like people tend to do paid upgrades when fly to Seattle from ny.
I wonder what algorithms AS uses to predict first class sales, I guess base on their flight history? Seems like people tend to do paid upgrades when fly to Seattle from ny.