Wider impact of Covid-19 on Air NZ

Old Mar 17, 2020, 11:39 pm
  #256  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: New Zealand (when I'm home!)
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Anyone stating that Air NZ is a poorly run business because it isn't ready to lose probably 80-85% (maybe more?) of its business for months on end really doesn't know a single thing about running a business.

I'd love to see anyone else's grand strategic business plan to be able to operate an airline, that could do that.

​​​​​And if anyone wants to say "well its a bad business then" it's a necessary business that almost acts as a service of common good because it literally props up every other business out there, let alone providing people the ability to, you know, visit their families around the country? No airline can run as an airline and be magically prepared to deal with something this devastating, when you consider the logistical costs involved to have it running in the first place!

This event could literally be the biggest event we all live through. In the current state of the world, no airline was ever going to be able to be prepared for this. Many other businesses are not either. The idea that everyone should have been expecting to one day have the entire world shut down for a minimum of 3 months over a rapid period of 1-2 weeks and if they are not, then they are a "bad business" is insane to me.
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 11:58 pm
  #257  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
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AirNZ well managed

I think most people would agree AirNZ is well managed. They were early to make Airpoints sustainable and they are nimble with good fleet and route decisions.

I think particularly since the US major carriers have spent 96% of their cashflow over the past 10 years on share buybacks AirNZ is pretty good. No doubt the US carriers will now lobby successfully and having privatised their profits seek to socialise their losses 😁

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...buybacks-chart
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 2:54 am
  #258  
 
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Originally Posted by nzjay
5. Airpoints: In worst case scenario, if Air NZ goes under, these go too. I know friends with 4K of airpoint dollars...
I've not got quite that many but still a reasonable amount that would be expiring in under a year as I'll not be able to get the last few hundred SP to qualify for gold.

At Mitre 10 you can spend APD as if they are cash, i.e. at the rate of 1APD = NZ$1. It will be interesting to see how long Mitre 10 will continue to accept payment in APD as they will be taking a risk in having sold stock and will be waiting for redemption from Air NZ. This will be a good barometer of how Mitre 10's accountants / risk management team are seeing the financial status of Air NZ.

And yes, I've just spent some of my APD there and at the Airpoints Store.
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 4:11 am
  #259  
 
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I have a lot more than 4,000 airpoints. I won't try to use them: I genuinely expect Air NZ to be bailed out, I can't comprehend New Zealand without them, and as long as they have the best flight time to the USA, I'll be flying with them for a long time yet!
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 4:52 am
  #260  
 
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Originally Posted by kiwifrequentflyer
I have a lot more than 4,000 airpoints. I won't try to use them: I genuinely expect Air NZ to be bailed out, I can't comprehend New Zealand without them, and as long as they have the best flight time to the USA, I'll be flying with them for a long time yet!
i have 5k+ in APD so am grappling with this issue. I agree that a bailout seems likely, and indeed probably inevitable. That doesnt mean APD will survive. As part of a bailout/nationalisation the Government may decree all existing APD are voided, and cite public interest as the reason. I would get the sense in that, for all the reasons others have discussed above about the big picture, but as an individual it would hurt. A lot.

My question is - if I decide not to bank on APD continuing, am I better off booking future flights on routes that are currently being retained, or buying stuff (not Mitre 10 vouchers!) i dont really want in the Air Points store? It seems to me the latter may be the safer choice.

PS This post is not intended to be insensitive to the airline or its people. Its a horrible time for them all, and indeed for all of us. This is, however, a forum to discuss the Air Points programme so I dont think its out of order for us to talk about these things.
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 5:03 am
  #261  
 
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No I think this is a legitimate discussion, APD might not survive the bailout. I don't really want to spend my APD on anything other than flights, so I am willing to take that risk.

But it does make me want to diversify in the future. Amex a year ago denied me their card that let's you get miles on other airlines. I didn't bother to pursue why and shrugged. I won't be shrugging now!
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 5:39 am
  #262  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Diversification by Air NZs HVCs is a risk management (and shareholders) will need to consider. Its not really an option when flying domestically, but has been (and presumably will be in the future, at least on some routes) internationally.

It would be bad for NZ to alienate its HVCs in whatever new world emerges and find they do not spend with Air NZ at the levels they did before because they start choosing other airlines instead (as conditions improve and flying becomes practical again).

Until now there has been natural inertia against change for HVCs and for some - and possibly many - a positive commitment to the Air Points programme (despite its flaws) and to Air NZ as our national carrier. If that loyalty is perceived as disrespected, even for good reason, then some HVCs (like me) will choose other airlines and other programmes. The new Air NZ will be poorer for that.
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 2:29 pm
  #263  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
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Originally Posted by gratn
i have 5k+ in APD so am grappling with this issue. I agree that a bailout seems likely, and indeed probably inevitable. That doesn’t mean APD will survive. As part of a bailout/nationalisation the Government may decree all existing APD are voided, and cite public interest as the reason. I would get the sense in that, for all the reasons others have discussed above about the “big picture”, but as an individual it would hurt. A lot.

My question is - if I decide not to bank on APD continuing, am I better off booking future flights on routes that are currently being retained, or buying stuff (not Mitre 10 vouchers!) i don’t really want in the Air Points store? It seems to me the latter may be the safer choice.

PS This post is not intended to be insensitive to the airline or its people. It’s a horrible time for them all, and indeed for all of us. This is, however, a forum to discuss the Air Points programme so I don’t think it’s out of order for us to talk about these things.
Definitely not out of order. I will be burning some of mine over the coming days on flights for this time next year. Seems a safer bet than having them just sit there.

In saying that I believe there's only about a 10% chance anything happens to them, if that.
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 2:29 pm
  #264  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
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Originally Posted by Trumpkin
I've not got quite that many but still a reasonable amount that would be expiring in under a year as I'll not be able to get the last few hundred SP to qualify for gold.

At Mitre 10 you can spend APD as if they are cash, i.e. at the rate of 1APD = NZ$1. It will be interesting to see how long Mitre 10 will continue to accept payment in APD as they will be taking a risk in having sold stock and will be waiting for redemption from Air NZ. This will be a good barometer of how Mitre 10's accountants / risk management team are seeing the financial status of Air NZ.

And yes, I've just spent some of my APD there and at the Airpoints Store.
I've got just over 8k in APD and have been mulling over this also, I only really want to use them for flights and have no real need for large purchases at Mitre 10.
I see the Mitre 10 gift cards expire five years from date of purchase or last redeeming transaction which is quite good from a gift card perspective - most gift cards generally are only good for one year.
Can't really see Mitre 10 going bust in the near future, but you could've said the same for Air NZ two months ago.
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 3:18 pm
  #265  
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: AKL
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I've got about 18k APD and 130k QF points that I was planning on making a dent in this May-July. Looking highly unlikely now. If by some miracle the trip does go ahead in some form, I was leaning towards forking out real money based on a (possibly) misguided notion of benefitting the greater good by getting some cash circulating instead of whatever internal transaction that takes place between frequent flyer programme and the part of the airline that keeps planes in the sky.

I don't really want to make them suffer any more than they need to by converting it all to Mitre 10 vouchers but might be tempted to buy a few more of the ridiculous Peugeot whisky glasses in the Airpoints store that I otherwise couldn't bear to pay for with real money.

But first I have to figure out how to get out of a country with closed borders...and no beer

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Last edited by ps107; Mar 18, 2020 at 3:23 pm
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 3:44 pm
  #266  
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
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Might be the last time I see this sight for some time, beautiful departure south from AKL this morning.
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 3:57 pm
  #267  
 
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Originally Posted by ps107
I've got about 18k APD and 130k QF points that I was planning on making a dent in this May-July. Looking highly unlikely now. If by some miracle the trip does go ahead in some form, I was leaning towards forking out real money based on a (possibly) misguided notion of benefitting the greater good by getting some cash circulating instead of whatever internal transaction that takes place between frequent flyer programme and the part of the airline that keeps planes in the sky.

I don't really want to make them suffer any more than they need to by converting it all to Mitre 10 vouchers but might be tempted to buy a few more of the ridiculous Peugeot whisky glasses in the Airpoints store that I otherwise couldn't bear to pay for with real money.

But first I have to figure out how to get out of a country with closed borders...and no beer

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I can recommend the Zalto wine glasses too, the burgundy ones are a personal favourite. Would definitely put a dent in the balance
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 4:55 pm
  #268  
 
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Hats off to AirNZ for doing the right thing.

Having been initially offered a credit for cancelled flights in April of about $7,500 we pushed back and politely asked for a refund and asked them to reconsider.

They did and sent an email this morning saying they have relooked at their polices for cancelled flights and have now issued a full refund.

I think this is very wise and will build huge loyalty for when things improve. Hats off to them.
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 5:34 pm
  #269  
 
Join Date: May 2003
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Given company travel bans of their own employees, followed by Gov't mandated travel bans, companies have been forced to adapt.
Part of that adaptation has been virtual meetings and conferences. Once these same companies realise that that much of what used to be dealt with in person can in fact be dealt with virtually or by phone, they will stick to virtual and phone.
I can see the business travel market being a fraction of what it was.
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Old Mar 18, 2020, 8:16 pm
  #270  
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: South Island, New Zealand
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Originally Posted by Kiwi_FF
Having been initially offered a credit for cancelled flights in April of about $7,500 we pushed back and politely asked for a refund and asked them to reconsider.

They did and sent an email this morning saying they have relooked at their polices for cancelled flights and have now issued a full refund.

I think this is very wise and will build huge loyalty for when things improve. Hats off to them.
We are in the same boat so hopefully we wont be far away from getting the call as our flights are April also. Did you call them or they you?
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