No correlation between underlying original cheap fare-basis booking and the success for a OneUp.
It simply is Air NZ "unwilling" to upgrade you that day for X amount.

As a reference point, in the past year I always book the cheapest "sale" TT seat-only fares (talking about "S" class which usually earns a paltry APD 1 and 7 SP) and lodge upgrades to PE or J, and always been successful, granted I'm Elite so would be on the top of the pecking order...


Once your ticket has been upgraded, your original underlying fare/seat would have been re-allocated/sold, meaning unless there is a seat available at your original fare booking class, it will always cost you more to be downgraded back as it'll be re-booked to an often higher fare class.

$260 one-up fail TT
 

Ok - thanks for feedback.
Interesting that $260 was not strong enough, given actual empty PE seats. No status though.
Given, some flyers here being successful at $100 or so.

(Edited)

AKL-MEL from PE-J $215 CAD (~$225 NZD) succesful

AKL-HNL from PE-J - $720NZD declined.

(18th Oct 2016 flight)

Someone should do a scrape on this page on the 787-9 flights and see how many upgrades actually clear

I have been looking back (because i wanted to see how likely my bid was to clear) and it seems like very few, if any, are accepted on the 787s.

I should have mentioned my $720 would of had a silver uplift applied to it, and it was declined 72 hours out (on the dot!).

Apart from exceptions to routes and circumstances, suffice to say that OneUps for the 787 is pointless

A dummy booking shows Air NZ only selling a single C class seat on that flight. It's not surprising a OneUp didn't clear because BP on the flight is chokka.

HNL has always been a big leisure route and in the 763 days most business seats were actually upgrades as it was only a single class upgrade.

I'd be really interesting to know what BP loads are now like on the 789 to HNL and what % of people are buying fares. The pricing of PE to HNL isn't that competitive compared to the Economy deals that have been in the market so to spend 3x economy ($532 vs $1576) to then upgrade is quite significant.

While I've flown business to/from HNL a few times on the 763 as upgrades I'd never for one minute consider BP on the 789 to HNL. I can cope fine in PE on a 8 1/2 hour flight and when you're paying $710 ($530 fare + $180 Elite upgrade) for PE vs $1936 ($1576 + $360 Elite upgrade) each way I can quite safely say I'd prefer the $1226 each way in my pocket.

Just reporting back with my results.

NZ8 AKL to SFO 3 October 2016 (773)
PE to J
2 pax
Bid: $A565 per pax (originally $65 above minimum, but was $35 below minimum by the day of the flight)
Outcome: Rejected 4 days out.

(The UA site indicated that there was J4 on the UA codeshare at the time the offer was rejected and judging by the number of unopened amenity kits and untouched headphones/bed linen in J, there were several spare seats. I put the money saved towards upgrading my SFO-JFK flight on VX instead; $US240 per pax to go from MCS to F was good value...)

NZ7 SFO to AKL 26 October 2016 (772)
PE to J
2 pax
Bid: $A815 per pax
Outcome: Rejected 9 hours out, after getting a 'we're still thinking about it' email 3 days out.

(Not surprising; the flight was fully allocated in J a month out.)

NZ123 AKL to MEL 28 October 2016 (773)
PE to J
2 pax
Bid: $A205 per pax
Outcome: Accepted 6 days out.

Consistent to understanding that OneUps are a dead duck exception for TT. Just like that Elite Experience

What are my odds?
 

Ok so I ended up bidding $800 APD for an economy to premium economy upgrade on NZ 28 to Houston this Thursday. I realise this is quite a lot but I'd really love an upgrade and have accumulated a few APD. Just received an email saying they could not confirm an upgrade at this time, but would review 7-9 hours before flight.

I've looked on Expert Flyer and the fare buckets are: C4 D4 Z0 J0 U4 E4 O4 A4 Y7 B7 M7 H7 Q7 V7 W7 T7 L7 S0 G0 X0 K0 P0

What do you wise people think my chances are of a last minute upgrade? I have no status (although will hit silver with this flight).

Thanks in advance for your advice! 😊

The fact there is A4 could mean it's quite good. An Elite APD upgrade would clear now immediately for $220 for Elite's.

What fare class did you book and how much did you pay? $800 is about the going rate for the difference between fares at present.

I booked class G, and the flight is going to LGA through IAH 😊 The fare difference was about $1200 each way from memory.

Just tried a dummy booking and could book 9 PE seats, surely that's a good sign 2 days out?