brunos

Undoubtedly, FB will get much fewer gold/plat this year if they strictly apply their qualification rules. The economic downturn will affect those qualifying by number of flights but not much (and the 30-segment threshold is unchanged from last year). However the crisis and the drastic reduction in earning levels bites badly those qualifying by status miles.
For example, one qualifying with 30 domestic/European flights mostly gains 125 miles per flight (25%); for 30 flights this would be 4,500 status miles. Even if you throw several 50% flights and a couple of longhauls, one gets around 10,000 or 20,000, far from gold miles threshold.
So the question is: what will be AFKL policy and will they be “lenient” on miles thresholds?
They probably will not be for qualification on segments, as it is already so easy to do it and the benefit is unchanged. But for miles threshold?
There are two visions:
- They are strict and the number of gold/plat will go down drastically because a large numbr of 2009 Gold/plat will not reach the threshold to qualify based on their 2009 travel. Given the few perks granted to gold/plat, I do not see what AFKL gains by making it more exclusive, except save on lounge costs. If they go this route, they should have a business plan to make their elite+ structure truly attractive.
- They are lenient and retain a lot of elites that would not qualify under published thresholds. The motivation is obvious: those guys will continue flying AFKL to get the lounge benefit. In my egoistic case where I have gold status in all alliances, I would keep flying AF when it is convenient/value if I keep my gold card, while I would privilege other airlines otherwise. I do understand that those members who tried hard to reach the thresholds in 2009 will be unhappy. We know that AFKL drastically reduced earning levels (and increased spending levels) to reduce their FFP balance sheet liability. But if AFKL now has the choice, they will prefer to attract the largest number of rev pax through granting elite level at no/little cost. Of course, they could also lower the official thresholds for elite levels, but that would be ugly.

Any comments and guesses?

Shesells

But the qualification by sector is very generous? I made gold easily in 2009 by not flying direct any time I was going to the US, and a NW MR in May helped ensure I was safely over the sector requirement?

Won't retain the way I'm going...have 6 flights booked so far this year and all on *A airlines. Purely economics...need to go to these place, Skyteam too expensive for the dates and destinations.

Squerez

AZ lost many FT after moving his hub to FCO but then tried to recover granting Gold status to fliers from other alliances. I think the net result is a loss in terms of Elite pax but their goal was purely economic:to save money!
LH instead recovered all the Elite pax from AZ based in the North of Italy: they have more Gold and they grew in terms of passengers while the others were losing.
AF/KL didn't nothing like that and simply lost a lot of passengers.
Yes, now they have quiet lounges and saved money but I believe they are not happy at all with their results.
What they will do?
I don't know...FB lost all its attractiveness to me after April 2009.
I would fire somebody...but French organisations are never so radical (just have a look at Renault...).
Worse for all ST airlines (maybe CSA is different): their prices are the highest in the market or almost never the cheapest.
If this continue my transition to *A will be completed in 2010!

bodory

My thoughts :
- AF/KL is sure they took the right decision on April Fool and that almost all its comptetitor will follow sonner or later.
- If the comptetition does not follow, they might find a way to honor their super Elites by creating a 4th tier a la LH HON. That would not surprise me at all.

Waiting for that, they would continue to target their promotions and be lenient only for some of us as they showed in the past. Nevertheless, the latest targeted offer for retaining Elite Plus status with lower thresholds has IMO shown that they might agree that probably they made a possible mistake in April 2009.

Also, one has to keep in mind that for non-French residents Platinum thresold is the lowest of the highest tiers in ST. Not to mention Gold Elite Plus at 40,000.

Squerez

I would say "a complete different way to look at the same decision" Anyhow interesting considerations....

easte

I do not think competitors will follow... actually CO, once out of ST, improved its FF program and is stealing FFP toST by offering matches.
A fourth tier would be kind of ridiculous, wouldn't it? it would make 5 levels (including ivory) and 2 special classes...

Klm is Dead - Long Live KLM

It would not appear, looking at Schiphol for example, that AFKL will save on lounge costs. Rather the lounges will be filled with Elite lites from the American programs with their extreme, easy to earn mile inflation, who are enjoying the perks that the real loyal passengers from AFKL no longer qualify for. Fortunately, many loyal customers have already left AFKL for greener pastures.

NickB

But these elites will have their programmes pay for their access, so AFKL WILL save on lounge costs.

Squerez

So this would confirm (if needed) that AFKL had mainly a focus on savings instead of marketing a more elitist and privilegied access to brand new services of FB
Kidding apart, AFKL results are very negative this year (just look at LH results and Ryanair trend over them)...I think they will be obliged to think again their loyalty program.

mike turnbull

And the 'Greener Pastures' are ?

bodory

Star Alliance, BMI Diamond Club and Swiss International Airlines to name a few.

Also on a more Green sense, the French TGV for my concern.

jochen_vdk

Well, it has been a little more than one year now since I have shifted my 200+ flights per year from Skyteam to Star Alliance and I actually really start seeing the new Flying Blue rules as an improvement: flying is more comfortable, customer service more reliable, Miles&More more interesting. Without the new FB rules, I would never have discovered this

orbitmic

Well, that was indeed the FB/AF/KL answer a year ago: 'you'll see, with the state of the airline industry, all of our competitors will do exactly the same!'

It is now just over one year since AF-KL announced their April fools day plans for FB, and this has simply not happened. Of course, there have been marginal examples: BD has just got rid of their complimentary food and drink on the flights they operate on a low-cost basis for their elite passengers.ve both However, the main competitors of AF in the European market - BA and LH - have both improved their FFPs at the very same time AF-KL had predicted that they would worsen them. BA has improved tier points earning on some flights such as longer European flights and introduced 'picnic bags' in their London lounges so that their silver and gold customers can pick up snacks for flights which do not offer meals in economy any more. LH have 'implicitly' improved their FFP as Star Alliance keeps offering more earning opportunities through faster expansion than Skyteam, and are further improving the way they are treating their best customers (see threat on LHR T4 fast track for a summary of the new first class check in facility for HC level passengers flying Lufthansa). In a more global context, many North American, Middle Eastern, and Asian airlines have also improved rather than deteriorated their perks for their most frequent customers.

In short, AF-KL's prediction about other European majors shooting their FFPs in the foot has NOT been verified after a year, and of course, if they wait much longer (or better, choose not to sacrifice their FFPs at all), the hemoragy of solid AF-KL frequent flyers will have proved irreversible.

So here is my interpretation: AF-KL are two airlines which have traditionally been led by managers who do not have it as part of their skills to question their own decisions, let alone admit it when they are wrong. As a Frenchman who was partly educated in a 'grande ecole' myself, I hope I will be forgiven for saying that in the French case, it does not surprise me because people in grandes ecoles are often taught to think that they are 'the very best in the country' (both when it is right and when it is wrong) and not that 'good is never good enough' and that one should be self-critical as is the case, say, in many top British or American universities (I teach in a British one and my visiting positions include both top US and top-French institutions, so I can also see the differences in students behaviour). I'll stop here before I become completely OT, but in a nutshell, I just think our FB leaders simply can't and won't admit to their mistake. At best,in a few years, they will pretend nothing happen and someone will claim to have a genius innovative idea in introducing 150% earnings in all LH business fares 'to make the programme more transparent', improve earnings in mid-range economy fares, or allow 'priimes classiques' in first 'so that all of our passengers can enjoy that part of dream'!!

Klm is Dead - Long Live KLM

LOL.
Exactly my sentiment.
In 2005 I was given the first encouragement to "date" and discovered that being faithful to my dowdy but expensive housewife KL had blinded me to other hot babes out here.
The subsequent devaluations were like a trial separation
The April change was like a definitive split, realizing that AFKL FB definitely wanted time to be alone and we are happy to let them have it.

Xandrios

I guess that is different for each of us. Getting up to gold at *A is quite a bit harder than on FB. If I have to fly twice as many segments to qualify, their added value better be higher than that of FB..