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Old Jun 8, 2009, 9:30 am
  #751  
 
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Originally Posted by WalruSara
1. Given the recovery of bodies in "whole" form (though admittedly, there hasn't been much given on this, so it is an assumption), is it likely that the plane attempted a water landing, rather than a dramatic "crash" or breaking up in mid air?
I don't think so, Pan Am 103 was bombed and broke up mid flight, and apparently some passengers were found clutching crucifixes...

This is really some chilling, tragic reading:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_Am_...03#270_victims
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 9:55 am
  #752  
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Originally Posted by td_in_training
I don't think so, Pan Am 103 was bombed and broke up mid flight, and apparently some passengers were found clutching crucifixes...
That means that probably the bigger piece still managed more or less to fly. Indeed, contrast this with SR111 in which case they virtually found no entire body. Even though the plane only fell from a relatively low elevation.
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 10:01 am
  #753  
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Verical stabilizer recovered

Sad yet amazing photograph....

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Old Jun 8, 2009, 10:15 am
  #754  
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Unions recommending not to fly 330/340 with old pitot

AF union requesting crews to refuse to fly A330/A340s with less than two Thales pitot probes replaced:

http://www.eurocockpit.com/docs/CALTER.pdf
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 10:25 am
  #755  
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Originally Posted by MileageAddict
Sad yet amazing photograph....
Interestingly, as was the case with American 587, the vertical stabilizer looks to be remarkably intact. I have no idea what, if any, significance this may have. Just an observation.
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 10:27 am
  #756  
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Originally Posted by PresRDC
Interestingly, as was the case with American 587, the vertical stabilizer looks to be remarkably intact. I have no idea what, if any, significance this may have.
Significance: composites pretty good?
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 11:18 am
  #757  
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Originally Posted by Stranger
Significance: composites pretty good?
Could be, but look at how clean the break is at the bottom of the tail. If it weren't for it being in the water and a few cracks, it would look factory new. In other words, it broke off cleanly at the point at which it was connected to the fuselage. Same with AA 587. Like I said, this could mean absolutley nothing, but it is interesting to see.
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 11:31 am
  #758  
 
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Originally Posted by MileageAddict
Sad yet amazing photograph....
Good Lord.

I would never, in a million years, sit atop that tail piece knowing that there was nothing but water for 20,000 feet down. Something about that just terrifies me.
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 11:35 am
  #759  
 
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Originally Posted by MileageAddict
Sad yet amazing photograph....

Is it me, or does this look like that guy sitting on the tail piece is only wearing shorts and flippers? Wouldn't that water be freezing cold? It almost looked like a survivor at first...
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 11:35 am
  #760  
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Originally Posted by PresRDC
Could be, but look at how clean the break is at the bottom of the tail. If it weren't for it being in the water and a few cracks, it would look factory new. In other words, it broke off cleanly at the point at which it was connected to the fuselage. Same with AA 587. Like I said, this could mean absolutley nothing, but it is interesting to see.
OK, I'll bite.

I seem to remember that the AA crash was due to overly aggressive use of the rudder by the crew. In the current one, one of the acars messages points to rudder limits becoming inoperative. Hence indeed a possible link.

This said, I would remain somewhat skeptical. The real question here would be whether the piece separated on or before impact with water. My take would be however that in both instances odds would be that breaking would occur at the weakest point. Which appears to be the attachment line.
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 12:11 pm
  #761  
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Originally Posted by Stranger
OTOH, all three pitot freezing at the exact same time seems unlikely. Plus, that does not explain why this crew would have taken their plane straight through the storm. Which many professional pilots seem unwilling to believe, hence alternate theories.
The pitot theory is one of several and it's one not being discounted on the PPRUNE board, nor, apparently, by the pilot unions. They don't have to ice over simultaneously or instantaneously to create problems. You get a series of messages that the air data computers disagree which creates an issue by itself which is what set of data to believe. This, incidentally, is consistent with the automated ACARS messages from the aircraft. There's also a history of pitot blockages on the A330. For more, go here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_447

As for flying into the storm, there are a number of possibilities. Weather radar is helpful, but far from perfect in detecting thunderstorms. For one thing, it doesn't show what's behind a return. They could have picked their way through one area only to find something truly massive behind it. As I said, it's all just theories and speculation.
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 12:44 pm
  #762  
 
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Originally Posted by pitbrian
Is it me, or does this look like that guy sitting on the tail piece is only wearing shorts and flippers? Wouldn't that water be freezing cold? It almost looked like a survivor at first...
Actually, I think it's quite warm -- it's near the equator, remember?
http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/atlm.html

As for nothing but water underneath -- that's also true for the guys swimming around that aren't on the fin.
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 12:52 pm
  #763  
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Originally Posted by us2
The pitot theory is one of several and it's one not being discounted on the PPRUNE board, nor, apparently, by the pilot unions. They don't have to ice over simultaneously or instantaneously to create problems. You get a series of messages that the air data computers disagree which creates an issue by itself which is what set of data to believe. This, incidentally, is consistent with the automated ACARS messages from the aircraft. There's also a history of pitot blockages on the A330. For more, go here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_447

As for flying into the storm, there are a number of possibilities. Weather radar is helpful, but far from perfect in detecting thunderstorms. For one thing, it doesn't show what's behind a return. They could have picked their way through one area only to find something truly massive behind it. As I said, it's all just theories and speculation.

I don't disagree. Coming back to the pitot messages, I suspect there are really two questions:

1. Does the message really imply that all three failed, or that they give conflicting results which cannot be reconciled?

2. Assuming the message implies all three failed, what is the sampling rate? One would not really expect icing would occur at the same time in all three. But would the sampling rate be small enough that all three could have iced between two samplings?

(Since these feed into the computer/autopilot, I would imagine sampling intervals to be relatively short?)
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 1:14 pm
  #764  
 
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Originally Posted by MileageAddict
Sad yet amazing photograph....

Indeed.

However, I distinctly heard the sound of a lead accident investigator screaming "GET OFF IT!!!" while jumping up and down and pulling hair out.

By standing on it they're potentially compromising the investigation. "Is that dent *over there* indicative of something flying off the fuselage, or the moron who stood on it in the water?"

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Old Jun 8, 2009, 1:20 pm
  #765  
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Originally Posted by YYZ_TVGuy

However, I distinctly heard the sound of a lead accident investigator screaming "GET OFF IT!!!" while jumping up and down and pulling hair out.

By standing on it they're potentially compromising the investigation. "Is that dent *over there* indicative of something flying off the fuselage, or the moron who stood on it in the water?"
This is composite, I believe. Unlikely that these guys will make a dent. Plus, it may not be so easy to manoeuver such a large object.
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