canadiancow

I thought we were talking about CC-SEs in 2022.

vernonc

Ah, yes. I think there are going to be quite a few people dropping a level or two due to travel not yet getting to precovid levels even next year. For example I am not sure when Taiwan will open. Also Australia. Probably most will not want to travel to India even if open till the case counts and vaccination rates change dramatically. Also possible that companies travel budget will be lower in 2021 as they may not see the need for that level of travel. So perhaps this CC offer will help to get people back up to their current levels. I may be one who would drop to E75 as I do not plan to travel as much and this promo keeps me at SE. There will definitely be 75Ks who move to SE with this promo but people going the other way may more than offset.

Captain Canuck

There are a few of us at least from what I have seen upthread and we are certainly going to enjoy experiencing life on the Club floor for a year

It may be so good that we won't be able to live with a mere 75K going forward and do everything we can to stay in the club.... ?

But I agree with your assertion that there are not enough of us to dilute the SE pool for 2022. Now those E50's who are going to flood the 75K version, well that is an entire different story

CC

hoipolloi

Who is a "real SE" and is annoyed there will be a bunch of lowly 75K becoming SEs on the cheap to compete on the limited resources available that benefit SEs ?

EdmFlyBoi

I would suggest that there are not that many. I have been an SE for a while and am going to qualify in 2022 based on flying. To me, the advantage of all of these promos is the ability to get above 250K total miles over 2 years, which, if the threshold gifts apply, will allow be to bank a year of SE status, something I have never done. I suspect, like many posters have said, that there will be a reasonable number of SE's who don't qualify for 2023 as they won't have done enough flying.

AC is doing some creative things to get people flying. Having their loyalty program members fly a bit extra (like me) to hit certain thresholds is going to be good for their bottom line, I reckon. They are looking to give the flying public as many reasons to get back out travelling as possible. My experience lately has been people are coming back as, anecdotally, planes and airports are getting busy again. Flair and Porter are trying to increase competition, so AC doing things like this to keep people in the AC fold, is a very proactive way to both encourage flying and keep people flying AC. It's also been fun - look how many posts there are in this exact thread after an announcement yesterday morning.

I say good on AC.

YOWgary

SELECT COUNT(*) FROM ExistingElites
WHERE CurrentStatus = 75K
AND PremiumCC >= 1
AND SpendingSummer2021 >= 10000
AND Flying2022 = 'Often';

That's the group of "lowly 75K" we're talking about here. Now, compare that to the number of existing "real SEs" who won't be flying much in 2022. Which group do you realistically think is larger?

Those new interlopers were already eligible for all the airport perks "real SEs" were, aside from what, concierge attention, Zone 1 boarding when not flying J, and priority for the elusive op-up? Are there other "limited resources" you're worried about?

indeed.

Adam Smith

I don't know. If this only 20 people, it doesn't make much of a difference. But I suspect that many 75Ks who have the cards will take advantage of this promo because many of them would likely be interested in the chance to make SE and it's not that hard to spend $10K in a few months.

I'll leave a more detailed discussion of this for a concierge thread, but will note that concierge resources were frequently strained before COVID. For some of the pandemic, that situation changed because very few people were flying. Now volumes are picking back up, and some experienced concierges are retiring. Adding a bunch more SEs will not help.

And yes, there will be extra competition for eUps. Longer lines at SE desks. Also priority for waitlisted eUps and op ups - instead of clearly ranking ahead of these 75Ks, now they'll be at the same tier. Lineups at SE check-in. I'm not sure what the infusion of a bunch more SE priority rewards will do to international J points seats. That's also a finite resource but probably less impacted. Free preferred seats. LHR arrivals lounge.

Hard to predict just how much any of those will be impacted, but the Hobbesian reality is that a lot of the benefits that make SE valuable are scarce, so for those of us competing for them, adding more people to the competition is clearly negative.

It's also disappointing to see an airline that (a) once complained about upgrades cheapening the cabin and (b) just last year recognized the large value gap between SE and 75K with Travel@Home, give away SE status so cheaply. As the cow pointed out, $10K doesn't even match the SQD difference (for Canadian residents) between the two.

We're already seeing travel pick up quite a bit. We could see a lot of current SEs resuming travel just as these freshly minted CC SEs get their status upgraded.

I am.

24left

As for AC trying different creative promos, I agree. BTW, AA initiated a few similar creative offers a while ago (both of which were far simpler than this current AC promo, IMO).

Regarding the SE Banked year threshold benefit, I worked really hard to fly the insane miles in both 2018 and 2019, specifically because I knew I could do it then, and because at that time, I felt it was worth it. And this was all before any of us knew what was coming and what we'd be faced with in the Now Times.


What a strange statement. Why would it matter? .....(and if you were joking, then you used the wrong emoji )

Whatever the total number of SE MMs or SEs, AC has done the math and determined or estimated what the total number of people that might be (or perhaps the total number they want going forward). As @EdmFlyBoi suggests, there may be a large number of SEs who stopped flying or reduced their flying for whatever reasons and would likely not re-qualify. AC knows how many people have which of the branded cards from either of the 3 banks and I'll assume part of the partnership with the banks, allows AC to see the spend data.

As for competing for limited resources, I always assume there will be less resources/services etc regardless of the number of SEs. The services and products AC provides are not free or cheap and quite a few have likely increased in cost in the past couple of years.
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24left

@Adam Smith
I understand your points. But from the day the new program launched and from watching of various videos with the AC loyalty people, my view has been that AC loyalty decided to shift their focus to provide better/more benefits/value to the customers of the banks. Here on AC FT, people commented that the new program was great for the 50K and 75Ks (and especially those who are also able to get the premium cards), but a downgrade of sorts for SEs. So IMHO, this type of promo is just in line with what some believe is part of AC loyalty's strategy.

Also, quite a few people in this thread alone indicated how easy it would be to spent the $10,000 etc in the time period specific by the promotion. Multiply that by all those who have this kind of ability but are not exactly FFs.

If or whenever travel increases to the point where the issues you describe become frequent and ongoing problems, AC will either fix it or ignore it. AC may change the concierge program. Or not. AC has already changed one benefit to allow J or F Flexible awards to access the Signature Suite. Do they think it will be overrun by MLL-like crowds? As for the SE lines at airports, there used to be experienced agents to handle those lines, just like there used to be a dedicated SE phone line. We all know someone decided to change that (details of which have been mentioned in recent years in other threads).

In the end, and looking at this promo as another example, AC loyalty made decisions to suit their needs and those of their partners. Some have been creative, some have had issues with T&C and executional details, but they keep trying nonetheless. Not sure they have a choice since other airlines are doing similar and since air travel will not be what was on Dec 31, 2019, for quite some time regardless of the crowds we may see at the airports here in Canada.
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Bohemian1

The very nature of an incentive is to amplify or change a desired behaviour, often using a suitable reward. That's what this is.

If AC in all of their wisdom did not think that it would encourage E75Ks (or any other Ks for that matter) to spend a bit more to attain the next level, then I doubt we'd see things like this. And $10K is not an inconsequential amount of money for many who do not inhabit these forums.

I think 24left nailed it. When the new Aeroplan was announced, many of us said that this was more focused on spend and CC partners than on flying and airline partners. IMHO, this is just another manifestation of that shift in focus. And we know we will see more in the near future.

To paraphrase Wells: "Adapt or perish ... in Zone 7."

vernonc

Yup, spend and CC partners make more financial sense. AC ties more customers to their brand/flights. AE points and redemption was one way. Earning even more points and status via CC spend (not on AC) is another way. AE points/status earned by flying entices frequent flyers, CC spend captures a much larger base. And the promo cost is 'shared' by partners like the banks/Uber/grocery stores/etc in effect costing AC less. It will likely cause dilution of BIS FF benefits and we may end up like UA where 2/3 of the plane has status on some flights. Good for AC but perhaps not so good for FF. Moved from avoiding cheapening the experience to monetizing the experience whether J or just increase benefits. With so many permutations, lets hope the front like GAs and staff can decipher who gets what.

The Lev

TBD - I suspect we'll see a couple of thousand E75K become SE's - not the end of the world given that travel will still be in rebuild mode so likely a lot of traditional SE's flying less than normal (especially given that they can blend two years to requalify). What will be interesting for AC is once those E75K's get a taste of SE, how many of them will re-arrange their personal and corporate lives to requalify at the higher level once they have to truly earn it with dollars and seat time.

If things do really pick up in 2022, then I'll be glad that MM will put me ahead of the regular SE's for upgrades.

YOWgary

...this assumes that the influx of 75-to-SEs is greater than the drop in existing SEs whose travel volume doesn't immediately recover 100% in 2022. I don't think it's unreasonable for you prefer that there not be a bunch of new SEs, I just think you're overestimating the numbers this will create.

I note that throughout this thread we're not talking about MLLs suddenly being overrun with newly-minted 35Ks, and I have to believe AC didn't just get to invent a bunch of new *G members out of thin air without giving Star Alliance a forecast on how many people they believe this will affect.

On this specific topic I think you're *really* overestimating the number of people we're talking about.

It's for exactly this reason that I am convinced that AC designed this promotion to make up an expected and significant shortfall of SEs, not increase the ranks. If all other conditions remain equal, it would be a pretty significant reversal of long policy to provide this option "just because", and given everything else we know about this program, there's not enough money in it to just give this away for that reason.

To me, the most logical conclusion from this promo being added only a few months after the existing "jump start to 2023" promo is that something has convinced AC it's going to need additional carrots, and I believe a carrot of this size must have taken a fair bit of convincing.

75K-SQD plus $10K leaves a flyer 5% short of the spend requirement for SE. Does this really seem like a crazy shortfall, based on the other reductions in elite-qualification requirements we're seeing?

BlondeBomber

A lot of conjecture and none of us really knows. Just roll with the punches. My main concern is the lack of routes/schedules right now so there will be more competition for upgrades/service because of the lack of flight availability more than a surfeit of SEs (although that may change with promos like this).

I have an Alberta Commuter unlimited pass on hold as well as the expiries of other passes next year. I could easily ramp up and restart the unlimited pass soon but with no flights to some places and 3 flights a day on what were high frequency routes, it is sometimes more efficient for me to drive! (that may change come winter)

As a 2MM SE, I think I will be ok in the pecking order but I need to be flying to care much about who is first in line. First world problems.

This promo helps take some of the uncertainty out for earning through next year for 2023 status. I should have no problems after that with what seems likely to be a much heavier international and domestic travel schedule and likely ok for next year without promo. The weird side effect might be to reduce my travel on AC as I have more options on paid business class with other alliances that give me more direct (i.e. less connection) routes to where I am going with good hard and soft products both to US and international destinations.

Adam Smith

I'm not quoting the previous posts from @24left and @Bohemian1 to save space, since it's essentially the same point.

I don't disagree that AC has been making it more rewarding to be a CC holder in general with the new program. And this offer doesn't surprise me in general, because it's consistent with that philosophy, and consistent with their previously stated intention to offer promotions to keep people engaged this year even if they're not flying.

What I have a hard time understanding is the value proposition specifically in the 75K -> SE portion of the promo. Attaining SE requires over 2x the spend of 75K. Despite the occasional nonsense that gets printed about FFPs being more valuable than airlines, the AC-Aeroplan saga proves that FFPs are largely worthless without their airlines.

On $10K of spending, there's only a few hundred bucks of fees. Been a while since I was involved much in the space, but generally the people with higher incomes who qualify for premium cards are less likely to carry a balance and generate interest income. Since this promo targets people who already have the cards, the annual fees are essentially the income equivalent of sunk costs.

So the revenue that AC ultimately generates from this promo is pretty low, and there's definitely a cost associated with it. It's just incongruous that they want $11K more spending ($5.5.K for non-residents, but not a lot of them will have these cards) if you spend it on flights, yet they're willing to give it away for a couple hundred bucks to CC holders. And they effectively acknowledged that fact in the way they structured Travel@Home last year as well as the offer to new Amex sign-ups.