Exclusive: SFO near miss might have triggered ‘greatest aviation disaster in history’
#946
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"19 hours after you wake up you're likely very tired and prone to errors or falling asleep. So are our competitor's pilots.'
The Airline industry has proven time and time again that all they will do is meet the minimum and spend huge sums of money lobbying to keep any requirements from increasing. Hence we have 30min CVRs. zero recent AC incident flights have retained this data because of.... "quick" overnight turns, pressing the pesky self test/erase button, etc.
#947
Join Date: Dec 2014
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On the other hand, even small commercial vessels like tugs now have systems on board that allow the entry of waypoints to create a route. Typically they immediately graphically show where that route will take you directly on the chart...even if you miss one of those oopies, typically after the route is entered you can scan it, and the processor will immediately spit out a report indicating where the depth is too shallow, you're too close to land, you're going under a bridge that's too low for you mast, you'll be in a prohibited or restricted area, and so on. More advanced systems might even inform or warn you of strong currents and maybe even recommend route alterations to take advantage of or mitigate currents. Others might interface with the weather system automatically any warn you of storms you might want to avoid. So even before you've left the dock you have a good idea of where you're going and more importantly that the route is safe...Equally independent of the programmed route, your chart system probably has an anti-grounding feature that can tell you if you continue on this course for "X" minutes / "Y" nautical miles you're going to run aground, or hit that bridge, or whatever...On top of this there will be some one monitoring the RADAR...Add to that the AIS system that will show you the position of all the commercial and many recreational targets near you. Moreover, both the RADAR and the AIS have the ability to warn you of potential collisions, and where they might happen in terms of both time and distance...All of these devices might be duplicated, triplicated or more, and are likely all interfaced together. Many items can do multiple related tasks; both a GPS and a doppler speed log can tell you your speed over the ground, but the log can also tell you your speed through the water, and in shallow waters (i.e. <100 m) also tell you your depth just like the depth sounder. AIS and RADAR can both be used for collision avoidance, while both GPS and RADAR can be used for position fixing...Note that all of these devices operate autonomously...Why don't they have a radio/RADAR altimeter, barometric altimeter and GPS altitude continually evaluating each other's performance and the plane's position and altitude, course, and speed, to determine that in "X" minutes / "Y" nautical miles things are going to get ugly...That mountain up ahead was there before humans walked the earth, and will likely be there long after humans have gone extinct. Why isn't there some independent, autonomous device that knows where the mountian is, knows where the plane is, and can figure out the difference?
As best I can tell all of this magic technology is available to the airline industry, but is only implemented far enough for the airlines to be able to say, for example, "yes we have GPS." They seem to be using it to the most minimal extent possible, instead of leveraging all the information for all of the devices and technologies to be able to understand exactly and precisely where they are at all times, and to warn them if something untoward is about to happen.
For me, investment in a safety culture rather than buying safety gadgets is a much better use of resources.
Originally Posted by RangerNS
Why after a 4 hour flight does someone not remind - and demand positive acknowledgement from - pilots of the NOTAM they didn't read before?
Trust
Empowerment
Professionalism
This is a very slippery-slope suggestion.
Originally Posted by expert7700
Perfect time for Porter or Westjet to meet or exceed current US regulations. They can use this to mock AC in print and video advertising by saying things like:
"19 hours after you wake up you're likely very tired and prone to errors or falling asleep. So are our competitor's pilots.'
"19 hours after you wake up you're likely very tired and prone to errors or falling asleep. So are our competitor's pilots.'
#948
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#949
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: YYZ
Programs: AC E50K
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It's very easy to make blanket statements about this incident and how regulations need to change but Canada has a much more complex operating environment compared to the US making it harder to implement regulations. I'm not suggesting that the regulations around fatigue stay the same but just reminding everyone that the US and Canadian have very different operating environments making it a bit more challenging to find a solution that works for all parties in Canada.
#950
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AC's (mainline) current duty day regulations exceed the TC regulations. In addition, they actively track routes and fatigue reports (as well as controlled rest reports) to help determine where things need to change. This problem, however is a lot more difficult than just applying blanket regulations (either by TC or AC). Using the proposed regulations (or even the FAA based regulations) certain pairings would not be possible anymore (such as, depending on when the crew starts, YYZ-YVR-YYZ). That sort of pairing, which may not have been very fatiguing under the current regs, is all of a sudden deemed too fatiguing under the new regulations. Further, a lot of the resistance to this change isn't only from AC but from smaller 705 operators (705 operators include anyone operating a multi-engine aircraft with a max certified takeoff weight of 19,000 lbs and carrying 20 or more passengers - about 95% of all air travel is on a 705 operator).
It's very easy to make blanket statements about this incident and how regulations need to change but Canada has a much more complex operating environment compared to the US making it harder to implement regulations. I'm not suggesting that the regulations around fatigue stay the same but just reminding everyone that the US and Canadian have very different operating environments making it a bit more challenging to find a solution that works for all parties in Canada.
It's very easy to make blanket statements about this incident and how regulations need to change but Canada has a much more complex operating environment compared to the US making it harder to implement regulations. I'm not suggesting that the regulations around fatigue stay the same but just reminding everyone that the US and Canadian have very different operating environments making it a bit more challenging to find a solution that works for all parties in Canada.
I don't particularly care about crews doing 10 hour days of 11am to 9pm, if they're alert. But AC 759 alone can be extremely taxing on the body. I've flown it as a passenger after being in that time zone for a few days, and I'm not very alert upon landing.
#951
Join Date: Jul 2008
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Without disagreeing with you, how do you feel about a 6 hour flight departing at 9pm EDT for a crew living in EDT?
I don't particularly care about crews doing 10 hour days of 11am to 9pm, if they're alert. But AC 759 alone can be extremely taxing on the body. I've flown it as a passenger after being in that time zone for a few days, and I'm not very alert upon landing.
I don't particularly care about crews doing 10 hour days of 11am to 9pm, if they're alert. But AC 759 alone can be extremely taxing on the body. I've flown it as a passenger after being in that time zone for a few days, and I'm not very alert upon landing.
#952
Join Date: Oct 2013
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Fatigue is an interesting beast. Its not uncommon to take a nap before flights like this but I agree with your point that staying up until 3am body clock time may put you in a circadian low -- how that affects you is really dependent on the individual. You bring up a good point though; blanket regs may not be the only thing needed here. Perhaps a YVR or YWG based crew is better off flying 759? A lot of different solutions but a silver bullet may be hard to come by.
#953
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: YYZ
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Posts: 132
A YVR crew could fly YVR-YYZ, layover, then fly 759 then next day. On the A330 fleet, all flights from YYZ have the flight crew deadhead in from YUL. I suggested that as they are based on the west coast and may be able to better handle the timezone change. In reality, since not all pilots live where they are based, it might not be all that practical to do that.
#954
Join Date: Dec 2014
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If Canadian airline pilots get the fatigue rules changed to the extent they seek, it will undoubtedly mean significantly less flexibility for the airlines, a drastic rationalization of flights & frequencies, and exacerbate the impending crunch of qualified pilots, not just locally, but worldwide. It will make a negligible impact on safety, in my opinion. Look at the pilots' ask through a collective agreement lens rather than a public welfare or crew health & safety lens, and the picture focuses in a rather different way.
#955
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: YYZ
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Posts: 132
He meant reserve pilot, if I may clarify on behalf of YEG_SE4Life.
If Canadian airline pilots get the fatigue rules changed to the extent they seek, it will undoubtedly mean significantly less flexibility for the airlines, a drastic rationalization of flights & frequencies, and exacerbate the impending crunch of qualified pilots, not just locally, but worldwide. It will make a negligible impact on safety, in my opinion. Look at the pilots' ask through a collective agreement lens rather than a public welfare or crew health & safety lens, and the picture focuses in a rather different way.
If Canadian airline pilots get the fatigue rules changed to the extent they seek, it will undoubtedly mean significantly less flexibility for the airlines, a drastic rationalization of flights & frequencies, and exacerbate the impending crunch of qualified pilots, not just locally, but worldwide. It will make a negligible impact on safety, in my opinion. Look at the pilots' ask through a collective agreement lens rather than a public welfare or crew health & safety lens, and the picture focuses in a rather different way.
#956
Join Date: Oct 2013
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This CA was not scheduled to work this flight. The scheduled pilot was unable. Instead of putting a pilot based where the flight is scheduled to leave, would you have the airline just cancel flights, when a pilot cannot work his schedule? Or, should the plane sit in YYZ until they fly a YVR based pilot to fly from YYZ to SFO? And if they do, how fatigued will that pilot be by the time s/he deadheads YVR YYZ and then flies YYZ SFO? Is it not possible that the YVR pilot also would have kids making a fuss that interrupted his/her sleep, prior to being called out for the deadhead? That appears to be the real cause of the fatigue in this particular incident.
I am merely suggesting that things aren't that simple.
I am merely suggesting that things aren't that simple.
#957
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Or you do like other airlines do at their main hubs and have crews on standby just for that eventuality, so a flight can leave with a rested crew even if the originally scheduled crew is unable to fly.
#958
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Using the proposed regulations (or even the FAA based regulations) certain pairings would not be possible anymore (such as, depending on when the crew starts, YYZ-YVR-YYZ).
I'd LOVE to see this affect some of the separate (for book keeping purposes only) low cost contract carriers who run monopoly routes for AC to the smaller cities. During EYW, at stations like St Johns NL, Thunder Bay ON, and Charlottetown PEI, we had late 1am-2am arrivals, where the flight crew "rested" in the crew lounge at the airport until they flew the 5/6am departure. How does this not interfere with sleep cycles?
#959
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Yet, with all this hair pulling the system worked and as @CZAMFlyer correctly points out, the solution is advancing a safety culture, not more tech, lines of code or worse the dead-hand of regulation.
What is a near miss btw?
in this case, An error in the system was detected and the Reason model of providing unaligned defenses worked just fine...
Can industry learn from this NON-EVENT, of course, but what was ATC in SFO main purpose in life - catch system errors which will always exist even if we fully automate flying as the error will just appear buried in code somewhere.
ps...would you buy a car that had as many bugs as typical software and needed ongoing updates - liveware / humanware interfaces are NOT infallible but pretty useful to have them both checking the other
What is a near miss btw?
in this case, An error in the system was detected and the Reason model of providing unaligned defenses worked just fine...
Can industry learn from this NON-EVENT, of course, but what was ATC in SFO main purpose in life - catch system errors which will always exist even if we fully automate flying as the error will just appear buried in code somewhere.
ps...would you buy a car that had as many bugs as typical software and needed ongoing updates - liveware / humanware interfaces are NOT infallible but pretty useful to have them both checking the other
Last edited by skybluesea; Sep 30, 2018 at 2:53 am Reason: sp
#960
Join Date: Oct 2013
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And, FYI, I was responding to the notion that a YYZ SFO night flight should be flown by a YVR crew. If we continue with that notion, should each hub have stand by crews from various bases, just to keep sleep cycles in sync?
Last edited by YEG_SE4Life; Sep 30, 2018 at 9:05 am