ramsfan

I have enjoyed being SE it seems like forever, but next year with the $20,000 AC spend requirement plus that i am now retired that will not continue. I could make the 100,000 miles if i wanted to, but no way the spend.

I have always upgraded with ecerts and their prior equivalent on transpacific routes, batting 100% as SE for about 2 asia leisure trips per year.


Thinking about next year, after February i likely will be at 50,000 miles status either on spends this year or on my MM status.

I assume my chances of getting upgraded on YVR -HKG flights from premium economy to business are about 0 as a 50,000 mile status person.

Does anyone have experience to the contrary and you have been able to upgrade trans pacific as a non SE?

Yes, i know , i will also have to give them money as well as ecerts.

Hello again

Upgrades to HKG are next to impossible even with SE status. YVR is a little easier than YYZ. However, if you are flexible and watch the flights there are days when the load gets lighter for whatever reason and upgrades become a little bette than a crap shoot.

Absolute

I can attest to that too; I've had 0/6 eUpgrades as an SE on YYZ-HKG (and vic versa).

Jasper2009

While this used to be true, things have changed a lot during the last year and I'd tend to disagree with your statement.

Just looking at availability for YYZ-HKG for the next week, there are three days with R space (= instant upgrade), incl. two days with R8.

IME availability flucutuates very much on this route (both in Y and J) and I tend to recommend booking 7-10 days in advance if one is somewhat flexible

E.g. someone who's retired should be able to book a last-minute ticket with R space if they're somewhat flexible date-wise. Whether it's worth paying for a PE fare + co-pay + e-upgrades vs. paying a discounted J fare on another airline is another story.

cairo604

$2kish for a PE fare plus $1500 in copay + 52 credits... confirmed discounted J sounds way more appealing for +$500 or so.

Plus it'll be 1/5 of the AQD you need

eigenvector

I think you are better off just looking for the cheapest J fare on any carrier, it will probably be the same price as PE + $1500 copay on AC and you don't need to worry about availability.

FlyerGoldII

I have been looking at flying from YOW to HKT via different routes for late August - paid J class ticket for me, and a Aeroplan award ticket for my wife.
No priority award space between YVR/YYZ-HKG for several dates I could go - therefore, no R space for upgrades.

Seat13F_AC_CRJ

Since you are not visiting HKG, have you explored indirect routings? I am have travelled to BKK four times in the last 18 months and took a different rerouting each time, partly due to availability of PY and/or R-space. Via HKG, PVG, NRT and ICN are the routes I have used.
--
13F

Hello again

You didn't disagree with me. You actually just expanded my comment.

Jasper2009

I do actually disagree with your "upgrades to HKG are next to impossible even with SE status." statement.

Pointing out that 3/7 of the next days have up to 8(!) R seats (allowing even non-SEs to confirm their upgrade and not play aerolotto) certainly contradicts your "next to impossible" claim.

Sure, availability isn't always this good, but I've been watching this route for the last ~year and it's actually not uncommon to see R space a few days before departure - something almost unheard of 2-3 years ago.

Wpgjetse

Last year, I only got upgraded 40% of the time from PY. I agree, some weeks are very easy to upgrade, well other weeks/months are impossible to upgrade. I have given up on trying to upgrade and only buy J now(low if possible). During the busy times, I have friends that buy the cheapest tango fares and always buy their upgrades. They are upgrading 100% of the time, but are willing to pay up to $3000 to do so, which they think is a good deal.

Transpacificflyer

Well my experience has been very different than those suggesting the purchase of discounted business. I have considered this option, but the discounted fare has run anywhere from $5600 to $7200 for me, and I was trying anywhere from 40 to 90 days in advance. CX and BR were more likely to offer a better fare. My guess is that the flights are full so AC doesn't need to worry about price sensitive customers.

As pointed out, the best option is to consider an alternative routing. Currently the YYZ-PEK is one of the more affordable options. True, one has to deal with the stress inducer that is PEK, but it's one of the cheaper routes. (ICN is another one, when it is off season. It also gets less expensive every time the chap to the north threatens to launch an attack.) Next flight, I'm doing the PEK route because it is the only affordable option with AC to get to SE Asia. (The schedule using Haneda just doesn't work for me based on times and cost.)

Hello again

I can get the same results during Chinese new year periods and other holidays. This week happens to be school break week in many parts of eastern Canada, Ontario for sure. look ahead to the weeks in early April after the school breaks and easter and it tightens up dramatically. Also there are a lot of last minute J buyers on this route. The return flights may be hammered when the OB is lighter and vice versa. Most people travelling on business go when the business cycle makes it necessary. I am booked in mid April and the flights both ways are already zeroed out in P and R and down to less than 5 J seats open. As for flexible travellers there are windows of opportunity but they generally like decent weather and March is not that nice in HKG. There are also a lot of winter warriors who travel in the fall and return from SE Asia vis HKG around this time so the flights can be hammered in those periods also. We have people on fights to HKG all the time and we check both CX and AC. It is very rare to be able to get instant upgrades on either of those carriers and a real crapshoot at the gate, especially now that PY is coming along on most metal that ply the route. Going forward there will be fewer seats in J once the 788/9's and the reconfigured 777's are all operational. That will further hamper those who live on upgrades to Asia.

Dorian

Was is your source for this statement?

24left

Absolutely agree. On all points.

My recent CX HKG flights were fantastic, for many reasons including price. (And Podtastic, to quote a friend.) AC would have cost me that $7,000+ you mentioned to get me to my final Asian destinations and that won't happen anytime soon.

I also had one of those great AC P fares via PVG, but I opted out for something else.

As for the chances of upgrading, even as SE, it was a nail-biter down to clearing only 2 hours prior to departure on my most recent 2 NRT flights. Since AC seems to be filling those flights with Americans from the Pacific Northwest, I don't see odds improving there.

As for my recent multiples on the HKG route, similar despite the much larger J cabin. Only one of these flights had a J cabin that was more than half-empty (which I attribute to the date I flew) and whoever wanted to upgrade clearly could have). Otherwise, the Americans I met on those flights were from the U.S. Atlantic states.

If AC can sell the seats at a lower cost (not based on FX) to Americans and fill the planes, good for AC but upgrade opportunities are limited or zero, which IMHO, defeats the purpose of offering them to us as a benefit for our paid flying. And no, I do not fly short domestic routes where I could easily use my upgrades.

@ranmsfan
There is obviously nothing to lose but try, but if you really want to guarantee your seat and comfort, a paid ticket on whoever is the only way. Otherwise, it is still aerolotto.