That's a good one. YYZ-FRA on a cheap fare is 14 eupgrades. Take 28 of mine, just confirm the damn thing. The point about the SEs throwing 50 points at an upgrade - if you are E, and an SE wants an upgrade, you are SOL in any case, aren't you?

Status, fare class and OLCI time already play a role in this. In addition, nobody is really sure exactly how connections improve your chances when thrown into the mix. I'm not sure if I want another factor coming into Aerolotto.

As far as I'm concerned, the eUpgrade program has been a negative benefit. Granting upgrade credits naturally creates the expectation that one will actually be able to use them. I don't expect 100% success, but when I go 0 for 6 or 0 for 8, or if I am confirmed and get bumped back to Y because of a system malfunction, it leaves me more dissatisfied than I would have been if they were never offered. Especially when I have to fight to get the credits the system took reinstated.

My solution to be relieved of this aggravation has been less flying this year and in future years. Wonderful marketing on the part of AC.

Exactly. The consensus seems to be that the current system works great for SEs, who seem to be able to use up most of their credits during the year. Many of us lowly Es, on the other hand, tend to be stuck with 80+ credits and no opportunity to use them. It would be nice if I could use all of my credits just to "guarantee" that I can upgrade at least 1 long-haul flight a year.

It's basically an extension of the idea of UA's UDU concept vs. AC's requirement to use credits for domestic flights. UA's system favours its highest tier members, while AC's system forces people to choose how much they value something, giving even low tier members at least some chance of upgrading.

The OP is essentially playing into the AC business strategy of souring the milk of the upgrade scheme, lowering the prices of Z fares, and having people buy directly into the J cabin to avoid uncertainty and frustration.

Reflecting on my days as E, I used to happily buy up to Lat fares on those routes where an upgrade was important, and several people here have said the same.

So I'm not sure how much this new tactic is changing the amount of revenue generation for AC (particularly considering how often Z<Y/B), except that clearly loyalty is being chipped away slowly, and no substitution for lounge passes, free meals in Y, etc.etc.etc. will change that.

Certainly any paid international J I buy has not been on AC this year. I either pays my money and takes my chances in T+ with eups, or enter the market of discount business fares as a free agent

I've done very well with eUpgrades and have received more upgrades than under the certificate system, but I would concede that success varies by routes and times you choose to fly.

If the strategy is to have people buy cheap Z class fares, rather than offer value through the upgrade program, I absolutely concur that AC runs the risk of passenger infidelity.

One’s experience really depends on the route(s) that one frequently flies.

For North America, R is generally quite plentiful and the flexible Latitude fare is generally cheaper than the restrictive Executive lowest. One loses on the 50% COS but it only costs 1 or 2 eUpgrade credits. Therefore, lots more upgrade opportunities than before and still represent good value for an upper tier member – the ability to fly Executive class on a confirmed basis at a discount.

The situation is completely different on many international routes where R is frequently ≤ 1. Upgrade is difficult and Latitude fare is also frequently more expensive than Executive First Lowest. In the past, many played aerolotto but AC has effectively closed that door with the introduction of the non-upgradeable Tango fare and significantly more expensive Tango Plus fare.

I am one of those who have switched from buying Latitude (and upgrade) to Executive First Lowest.

In the past, AC priced its Z/D fares quite competitively, usually about 3~5% more expensive than its competitors. With a better FF programme, more convenient routing and somewhat better or comparable hard and software, many chose to pay the small premium to fly AC. The strategy worked well.

Lately, AC is getting too greedy. Recently, on one particular route, AC’s Executive First Lowest is priced $700 more expensive than CX’s cheapest business class fare, $1,000 more than UA and $3,000 more than BR. For those who do not mind a long transit at ZRH and IST, LX is $900 cheaper and TK is $1,200 cheaper.

Yes, I voted with my wallet. I am sure that many others have done the same.

When the budget does not allow, other airlines offer me a “soft landing” to Premium Economy. It’s better than paying Tango Plus to play aerolotto when the price difference is usually only about ≤ 10%.

Another nail to the coffin is the anticipated changes to the Top Tier qualifications and benefits for 2013.