Heads-up: New SA Immigration rules for kids
Sep 16, 2015, 11:05 am
#211
Join Date: May 2014
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Clearly, we can depend on you to post continuously excerpts from "news" articles that have no journalistic value or standards. Tabloid reporting has a certain entertainment value for the less educated and non-critical thinkers.
What the South African Reserve Bank actually said: (https://www.resbank.co.za/Publicatio...&sarbitem=6883)
The Bank is doing no more than guessing about the causes of the decline in tourism receipts.
What the South African Reserve Bank actually said: (https://www.resbank.co.za/Publicatio...&sarbitem=6883)
The South African economy contracted in the second quarter of 2015. Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell at an annualised rate of 1,3 per cent, reversing the positive growth of equal magnitude that was recorded in the first quarter of the year. During the second quarter, real output contracted sharply in the agricultural sector, brought about by widespread drought conditions.. Real value added also fell back considerably. in the mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors of the economy as a combination of disappointing global and domestic demand conditions and supply-side frictions, including electricity load-shedding, weighed on production. The trade and accommodation sector also registered a marginal contraction in the quarter under review, reflecting subdued domestic sales and tourism expenditure.
* * * *
Part of the improvement in the trade account was offset by a larger deficit on the services, income and current transfer account. Large reductions in dividend and travel receipts – some of them probably related to stricter South African visa regulations – contributed to this outcome. Nevertheless, in the second quarter of 2015 the deficit on the current account narrowed further to 3,1 per cent of GDP, thereby contracting for the fourth consecutive quarter.
* * * *
Part of the improvement in the trade account was offset by a larger deficit on the services, income and current transfer account. Large reductions in dividend and travel receipts – some of them probably related to stricter South African visa regulations – contributed to this outcome. Nevertheless, in the second quarter of 2015 the deficit on the current account narrowed further to 3,1 per cent of GDP, thereby contracting for the fourth consecutive quarter.
Last edited by Sabasi; Sep 16, 2015 at 8:22 pm
Sep 16, 2015, 5:49 pm
#212
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I'm not trying to be a smart alec but what confuses me Sabasi is that everyone seems to be "guessing" and speculating that the decline is caused by the change in immigration regulations, but you are adamant this is not the cause. Aren't you just guessing as well or do you have access to data and facts that everybody else, including the Reserve Bank, does not?
Sep 16, 2015, 8:21 pm
#213
Join Date: May 2014
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I have said "where is the reliable proof"? No one has posted it yet.
Common flaw on Internet fora is for user B to claim that user A is "denying" the existence of something when user A merely says "where is the reliable proof" of its existence. Yelling 100 times that it exists or citing unintelligent "news" articles does not make it so.
Common flaw on Internet fora is for user B to claim that user A is "denying" the existence of something when user A merely says "where is the reliable proof" of its existence. Yelling 100 times that it exists or citing unintelligent "news" articles does not make it so.
Sep 16, 2015, 10:05 pm
#214
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Plus irrational fears of Ebola, South Africa's reputation for not doing much about poaching, and the economic uncertainties in China and other countries. A decline in tourist numbers almost never has "one" cause, despite what the "news" media and travel providers/experts would have us believe.
You have cited irrational fear, reputation and uncertainty as contributing factors. Yet those 3 elements are all subjective in nature. Hardly reliable proof one way or the other IMHO.
Sep 17, 2015, 1:44 am
#215
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I have said "where is the reliable proof"? No one has posted it yet.
Common flaw on Internet fora is for user B to claim that user A is "denying" the existence of something when user A merely says "where is the reliable proof" of its existence. Yelling 100 times that it exists or citing unintelligent "news" articles does not make it so.
Common flaw on Internet fora is for user B to claim that user A is "denying" the existence of something when user A merely says "where is the reliable proof" of its existence. Yelling 100 times that it exists or citing unintelligent "news" articles does not make it so.
Do you really think that preponderance of the evidence indicates that the visitor restrictions had zero impact?
Sep 17, 2015, 2:05 am
#216
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I think the restrictions may actually have boosted visitors by giving them the sense of security that if their children were abducted while on vacation, they couldn't be taken out of country without the right papers.
Sep 17, 2015, 2:22 am
#217
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 529
Have the new restrictions improved or even kept stable tourism receipts and revenue/income profile arising from such export earnings? It would be quite a fantastic stretch for increased visitor restrictions to lead to increased revenue/earnings from visitors unless the market's supply side was already at capacity/margin-reducing demand levels and the restrictions altered the visitor profile by pushing out lower-spending demographic groups and replacing them with a higher-spending demographic group without a resulting drop in utilization and margins.
Do you really think that preponderance of the evidence indicates that the visitor restrictions had zero impact?
Do you really think that preponderance of the evidence indicates that the visitor restrictions had zero impact?
Sep 17, 2015, 2:26 am
#218
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Read the "news" reports linked in this forum. Yes, they are hysterical because of their tone, lack of balance, and utter lack of reliable and rational sourcing. Their point is to drive readership based on fear and sensationalism instead of providing actual news.
Sep 17, 2015, 4:17 am
#219
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Perhaps read my post again as your response is a little off tangent to say the least. I'm well aware of the business model behind daily rags, that's not what I was asking though.
Sep 17, 2015, 6:41 am
#220
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Visas issued outside of Africa to children to visit South Africa haven't dropped? 
Last edited by GUWonder; Sep 17, 2015 at 6:46 am
Sep 17, 2015, 11:43 am
#221
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"International family arrivals, which had been growing by 1.8%, have fallen 10% year on year since the introduction in June of the requirement for children under 18 to travel with an unabridged birth certificate or equivalent thereof. This is according to the latest figures from ForwardKeys, which monitors future travel patterns by analysing 14 million reservation transactions each day.
The ForwardKeys analysis shows a negative effect on family travel to South Africa from a wide range of countries, most notably France, down 29%; Sweden, down 29%; the USA down 18%; and Germany, down 16%.
“Our data provides strong evidence of the negative impact the new rules are having on this important market segment in South Africa. The restrictions are hitting travel from countries around the world,” said Olivier Jager, ForwardKeys Co-founder and CEO. “The family segment was growing at 1.8% before the new requirements were introduced, unlike other segments, which were falling.”"
Source
Some will no doubt manage argue that this is also just alarmist and hysterical rumormongering without any factual basis.
Johan
Sep 17, 2015, 11:50 am
#222
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Johan
Sep 17, 2015, 12:17 pm
#223
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 529
They're guessing. And it's clear as day from the article that they didn't even research the particular issue before pontificating on it. But there's almost no "news" article you won't quote here, as if the "news" were indisputable fact.
Sep 17, 2015, 12:24 pm
#224
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 529
"International family arrivals, which had been growing by 1.8%, have fallen 10% year on year since the introduction in June of the requirement for children under 18 to travel with an unabridged birth certificate or equivalent thereof. This is according to the latest figures from ForwardKeys, which monitors future travel patterns by analysing 14 million reservation transactions each day.
The ForwardKeys analysis shows a negative effect on family travel to South Africa from a wide range of countries, most notably France, down 29%; Sweden, down 29%; the USA down 18%; and Germany, down 16%.
“Our data provides strong evidence of the negative impact the new rules are having on this important market segment in South Africa. The restrictions are hitting travel from countries around the world,” said Olivier Jager, ForwardKeys Co-founder and CEO. “The family segment was growing at 1.8% before the new requirements were introduced, unlike other segments, which were falling.”"
Source
The ForwardKeys analysis shows a negative effect on family travel to South Africa from a wide range of countries, most notably France, down 29%; Sweden, down 29%; the USA down 18%; and Germany, down 16%.
“Our data provides strong evidence of the negative impact the new rules are having on this important market segment in South Africa. The restrictions are hitting travel from countries around the world,” said Olivier Jager, ForwardKeys Co-founder and CEO. “The family segment was growing at 1.8% before the new requirements were introduced, unlike other segments, which were falling.”"
Source
Does anyone in South Africa know anything about statistics?
Sep 18, 2015, 1:52 am
#225
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But since you have been dismissing everything that has been said in this thread, can you now show us (with the required robust statistical evidence of course) what actually IS causing the drop in tourism figures. Or do you deny that drop as well (even though the statistics are there)?