Originally Posted by
Cheetah_SA
Personally, I would be cautious about advice about where the ZAR is headed even if your friends are economists. Fortunes have been made and lost speculating on currencies and the ZAR is not the easiest one to predict. Locals are notoriously pessimistic - witness how everyone ran for the exits when the ZAR reached 13 to the USD in 2001. And, naturally, someone planning to disinvest will tend to have low expectations of the currency.
There are plenty of reasons why the ZAR is weak and may weaken further - general risk aversion, emerging market aversion, balance of payments, inflation differentials, political uncertainty, elecricity supply problems - but having taken a huge beating (it is down 50% against the EUR over 3 years) the unit is fundamentally underpriced on a number of measures. So anyone who knows where the rand will trade in six months or a year's time can make more money on that trade than the paltry savings on an AONEx ex-SA!
My apologies Cheetah_SA, it was a callous and unnecessary remark and one I am totally unqualified to make.
My friend managed a bank in Durban for many years and only felt the need to move his wife and young children after being held up at gun point three times (twice by the same person). He sold his main property ten years ago which gave him enough to get a foothold in the London property market. He has been trying to sell his remaining South African property for some time now and has dropped the price twice.
While he has advised me to avoid JNB and DUR, he always sings the praises of CPT as a must see.
Simon