I agree with the analysis of value of retail items.

Deflation? Certainly.

However, I see both an inflation in points and and increase of the "point price" in particular here in Europe. During the last two years I had two triple points and two double points promotions (took some telephone calls, but it worked). The best "point for the dollar" deals were in New York (360.000 points for 6000 Dollar and 205.000 points for 4100 Dollar) - this alone secures 20 nights in a Cat. 6 hotel. This cannot be a sound development: 20 nights in a top European place with a rate of 320 Euro cost about the same I paid for my original stays in New York. Spend 10.000 Dollar in New York, get 10.000 Dollar of European travel for free.

You guys in the US will certainly feel the pain even more. The Categories of the European properties went up - certainly a result of the weak Dollar. On the other side of the pond we enjoy it: A 220 Euro rate for the Hilton Berlin is still a 220 Euro rate, but scores about 6.000 points. Five stays, get one free. With the greenback at 1,20 and not at 1,50 it was about six 1/2 stays to get one free, the weak Dollar increases the European domestic value of the point.