I think the fatal flaw in recent approaches by USAir and Delta (with insULT fares) is this: It locks out any CHANCE of a domestic upgrade for elites. If you're on the "wrong" fare you can be certain of not getting to fly up front, even if they're flying empty seats there rather than upgrading you.

In an age where e-tickets are practically mandatory and computers track everything, doing it this way seems, well, stupid. If you're determined to upgrade based on revenue, then why not just program a new pecking order into your computers? Maybe someone with no status on close to a full-coach fare goes ahead of a gold member on the cheapest fare, but I think the important thing is: GIVE EVERYONE WITH STATUS A SHOT.

Otherwise the decision from the customer's perspective of whether to look for greener pastures becomes simple. If airline A locks you out 50% of the time and has you in the running 50%, and Airline B has you in the running 100%, it's tempting to go with B, even if A protests that you have a better shot on them the 50% of the time you're on the "right" fare.

And because FF programs both reward and demand loyalty, you can't expect to lock people out half the time based on fare and still get their business for the other half. They need to do those flights on the other airline to maintain their status there.

DL made that mistake with LUser and lost all the business from a number of leisure flyers. Maybe DL didn't think they were paying enough to deserve to fly up front, but the unintended consequence of that thinking was the loss of all their business, whether flying in front or in back. Maybe the lowest-fare "seatwarmers" aren't the most "preferred" customers, but they sure beat flying an empty seat.

Which is what US will get when all the medium- and low-revenue elites jump ship. The loss in business will exacerbate the downward spiral, taking with it the high-rev elites including those who resented the riff-raff who paid much less in fares getting upgraded.

Even if US rescinds the move quickly, the damage is already starting. And for them and Delta both, it's all so avoidable.

That's my spiel...flame away...

[This message has been edited by RustyC (edited 08-29-2002).]