I definately agree that your chances of having a problem based on the flight being oversold are very small. I would guess that flights the night before a holiday will be half or less business travelers (I don't know many that want to travel late the night before a holiday) and more than half leisure travelers (I tried to book GRR-SFO this night and was too full to get a reasonable fare so ended up flying early Jul 4). There never seems to be a problem finding volunteers when there are a lot of leisure travelers on a flight. Also I agree that NWA seems to really have improved their yield management. I have been on several flights where the gate agent tells me it is overbooked, only to leave with a few standby's clearing.