Apple has had three different models of iPods (now four, including the iPhone). The company revs each about once every six months. They don't always rev at the same time, so this makes it seem like iPods are changing more often than they really do.

Coming out with a new iPod Video once every 6-8 months really isn't too terribly often when you think about it. Same with the Nano, same with the Shuffle. In fact, the Shuffle has actually revved less often than every 6-8 months. It's only revved once in its 2+ year history. But if Apple introduces new iPod Videos in, say, March and October, and Nanos rev in, say, January and June, and Shuffles rev each September, then you end up with new iPods out every 3 months -- but they're totally different models. My point is this notion of all iPods becomming obsolete before you can turn around is totally a perception thing.

In the case of the iPhone, the models announced this week haven't even been released and won't be until June. There are only three units in existance in the world right now, according to the Nightline report last night: one on Steve Jobs' person, and two in display cases at MacWorld. So the idea of new versions being released "soon" is goofy. The reason these were announced so far in advance of the actual release is that FCC applications have to be filed, and that would make the information on the product public. I think we can expect the standard six-eight month lifecycle that nearly every Apple product has. That would put the next rev sometime around the next MacWorld. How convenient.

I've followed these trends since I started at Apple 7 years ago, not long after Steve rejoined the company (which essentially represents when the Apple was born again... any paradigm of Apple Before Steve's second coming progressively became null after he arrived). The patterns for product revs and new product announcements has become pretty straightforward. You never know what the nature of the rev will be, but it's not difficult to predict when you will see it: CPUs and iPods: every 6-9 months. Software: once a year. OS: every 1.5-2 years. Displays, wireless (Airport) devices, and other small accessories are less predictable and don't change often. That's the deal.

Maybe eventually the individuals in the media will stick around/pay attention long enough to also see these patterns. I doubt it though. Reminds me: for the first 3 years of the iPod's life, Rex Crum from CBS MarketWatch called the iPod the IPod (capital I) in his articles, even after repeated emails from readers. It was only in the last couple of years that he was able to type the name of the product correctly. Point being: the media, who is feeding a lot of the perception and opinions to most people, can't even pay enough attention to detail to correctly type in the name of the product on which they're reporting. makes you wonder.