Originally Posted by justageek
Perhaps that's a better question than the one I originally asked. Maybe 8/10 won't mark the end of LHR as a transfer point, but it may have enough of an effect "on the margin" that oneWorld will need to diversify.
The new terminal at MAD is part of this and is likely to attract more OW flights into MAD over the next few years (CX presently "flies" to MAD via an IB codeshare from AMS). After MA joins, the BUD hub might help with some intra-Europe routes. I'd bet that by 2008 there will be BUD-HKG flights by CX and several far east routes by MA. Of course this is a drop in the bucket compared to the LHR capacity.
BA has deliberately adopted a "route through LHR" strategy for the past decade, tearing down any non-LHR long-haul service. They could have a dozen routes out of MAN for example -- the traffic is there -- but only have MAN-JFK and route everything else via LHR. The new T5 at LHR was part of this strategy. Maybe BA will fail as an airline due to LHR troubles, but if it happens it was at the hand of BA management rather than bad luck.