My guess is this as well. The flights I track are through the roof in terms of points and cash prices. The jump happened so quickly that I have to assume it's due to the ongoing hostilities in the ME. I track west coast USA to BKK and back. I could regularly, until two weeks ago when tens of thousands got stranded in Thailand due to the ME carriers canceling everything, get J seats on JX for 85 K in T-10 or T-7. PE were easily had for 55K everyday. Now coach seats, if you can find them are 100K or more and J is 300. Cash prices jumped from and easy to find 2-3 weeks out $42-4600 RT in J on JX to 7-8-9K for anything in the next month or 2.

I have to assume that IF oil comes back down to $60 in the coming months, airfares will also settle back down as well as redemptions. It's supply and demand. Every JX flight I have taken fly with a half to one third empty J or PE class. Not to mention economy not being anywhere close to full. JX has 5 and soon to be 6 daily flights to/from west coast.