Originally Posted by
taupo
Looking at the wiki, I see the Jazz DH4 fleet undergoing a 34% reduction, or 13 aircraft.
Thinking of regional BC where most of my journeys begin and end, that can only mean a significant reduction in flight frequency and/or airports served.
I'm not so sure we'll see anything significant. There should be room for Jazz to reallocate some DH4 flying to CR9/E75, and for AC to reallocate routes between Jazz/Mainline/Rouge.
I did a very rough estimate of how the current DH4 fleet is allocated:
- West: 18
- Billy Bishop: 7
- Ontario/Quebec: 7
- East: 7 (All PAL)
- Parked 4 (Jazz - likely never to return)
Combined AC Express will shed a net 6 DH4 FINs in 2026, but Jazz is dropping 11 (5 of which go to PAL). The remaining 25 Jazz FINs will get their cabin refresh/WiFi.
Unless current utilization is low, they'll need to allocate, say... 5(?) more DH4s for the YTZ expansion.
Speculation 1 - fleet shuffling:- Jazz moves 5 FINs from Ontario/Quebec regional to YTZ, and another 5 FINs to PAL
- PAL picks up much of Jazz's Ontario/Quebec flying
- AC tweaks the YTZ/YYZ transborder flying, allowing Jazz to reallocate a some CR9/E75 hours to Ontario/Quebec regional.
- In the West:
- Some Jazz CR9 transborder will go to mainline A220s (21 deliveries in next 15 months) and Rouge 7M8s (this has already started)
- Some YVR to Portland, Kelowna, Fort St. John, Prince George can go from DH4 to CR9s. (CR9 has operated plenty of YVR to YYJ and SEA this year already)
Speculation 2 - new DH4 allocation:- West: 13 (Refurbished Jazz)
- Billy Bishop: 12 (Refurbished Jazz)
- Ontario/Quebec: 5 (PAL)
- East: 7 (PAL)
Originally Posted by
justinyvr
The Heart Aerospace ES-30 in theory could replace some of them on the shortest regional BC routes.
I read that the extreme cold temperatures reduces their range, so perhaps we'll see most of the ES-30s in BC.
Stated range in hybrid mode is 800kms with 25 pax, so easily YVR to Victoria, Nanaimo, Comox, (Long Beach?), Kelowna, Kamloops, Seattle, Portland.