FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - [Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Old Jan 6, 2025 | 9:46 am
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wh333
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Originally Posted by kisis
Hi all.
New question for you. Looking for some guidance on the best way to do this. Apologies if the question is very basic, as I haven't done this before.

I'm looking to purchase 2 tickets from EWR to MXP on Weds Feb 19, and returning on Mon Feb 24th, on United. My dates aren't flexible, and I am looking at the direct flight.
Unfortunately, I don't have any status with United but I do have a bunch of miles that I am willing to burn to upgrade.

Since this is a surprise trip for my husband's birthday, I wanted to have a nicer flying experience. So I want to make sure we fly at least Premium Plus (but would love to fly Business if I could figure it out).
I was planning on buying Premium Plus tickets, which are currently selling at $1484/person. (Regular economy are $792/person)

There is an option to upgrade to Business from Premium Plus for $425 plus 20k miles each way/person. BUT there is a waitlist for both the inbound and outbound flights.

I don't see how much it would be to pay to upgrade to business, but I assume I wouldn't see that until after I purchase my ticket.
The price to purchase business outright is $3308/person, which is more than I was hoping to spend.
The mileage cost and copay are per leg. So a PP ticket + 2x copay is $2300. The 40k miles that you apply also has value, so you should consider that when debating vs buying outright.

Using expert mode, the outbound flight to Milan is currently RN4, so you could consider buying econ and waitlisting for both Polaris and Premium Plus. The outbound segment will automatically clear into PP though this currently isn't the case for the return leg.

As for actual odds, the outbound flight is currently P9 PN9 PZ0. So while it won't clear right away, I think the odds are fairly high. The return leg is P9 PN0 PZ0. I think there's a good shot of clearing even from economy, though others can feel free to correct me
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