Originally Posted by
julietnov
I am correct in understanding that my odds are good only if it is PN & PZ "fares." If that happens, I can add myself to the list. If those don't appear, is it worth going on the waitist (at least one way before)?
The word you're looking for is "inventory," not 'fares." Your upgrade requires space in the PZ inventory bucket (often, confusingly, called "fare bucket"), so if there are n people traveling, and you see PZn or higher, an upgrade would clear immediately (no need for the list). You cannot make use of PN inventory space to upgrade -- that's reserved for people using an upgrade instrument from a Global Services account. However, PN>0 is a good sign, as it means that UA isn't seeing the sales level it would like and is starting to be willing to upgrade some passengers.
In the more usual case that PZ=0, your upgrade would be waitlisted, as you suggested. If you had the miles to spare, I'd say to go ahead and add yourself to the list, but since you're talking about transferring Chase points, I'd be hesitant to do so just for a waitlist offer. At a minimum, I'd want to see PN9 before I transferred the points in: United miles are pretty definitively worth less than Chase points, especially if you have the Sapphire Reserve.
Honestly, even if I saw sufficient PZ space, I'd want to check the cash buy-up price before I gave up 4K United miles, 16K Chase points, and $425 for a Polaris upgrade. If the cash buyup were $750 or less, I'd probably just take that and save my points.
Originally Posted by
julietnov
I am not familiar with the "date trick"
I think UA closed that loophole recently anyway.