I think merchants in the US have more of a problem with credit cards in general and not the various levels of Visa cards that are out there (though I'm sure stuff like Visa Infinite doesn't help). IMO that's why merchants are probably going to go the simplest possible route if they do start surcharging more regularly, which per the settlement is going to be a flat 1% regardless of card type or how much it actually costs the merchant. Just enough to maybe get a significant number of people not in the miles/points game to reconsider using a CC instead of some other payment method but not enough to make rewards completely not worth it.

In any case, we'll see what happens over the long run.