Originally Posted by
Stewie Mac
But actually on those early morning TATLs, the best case scenario is a healthy tailwind and an arrival well before 6am, which makes the whole thing a lot more comfortable. Yes it's tight, but it's certainly possible, and if the OP checks latest weather he should get some idea of likely ETA and chances before he leaves JFK.
Originally Posted by
scottishpoet
even with a strong tail wind, its unlikely they will be allowed to land much before 6am and they will join the q to get in as the restrictions open up at 6am
in the past, when i flew DXB to LHR a lot. many times my 6:15 arrival from DXB was well ahead of schedule. but as we approach heathrow we get held and end up touching down about 6:10
Some of the restrictions may have eased since I had so many early morning arrivals, but with the number of flights coming it at that time I do not think they will get much improvement on a 6;20 arrival
Based on my recent experience with early arrivals, I would tend to agree with
scottishpoet's analysis. My last JFK-LHR, in late October, was projected to be 30 minutes early when we left New York thanks to extremely strong tailwinds - and it wasn't even one of the really early arrivals.
Door opening, thanks to an extended hold and taxi, ended up about two minutes early. I don't think this is particularly unusual for the early evening departures from the Eastern Seaboard, and I don't think it's something the OP has factored into their risk calculation either.