Thanks for the detailed data points, and welcome to FlyerTalk!

In short, it's impossible to predict renewal timelines, and applications and renewals have spread the gamut from within a day to over a year. I've monitored this thread since its inception, and there is no correlation or consensus as to whose application will be fast tracked and whose will languish in the pending review process for months. There have been cases where people have had a single W-2 job, only traveled to Canada, haven't had any name or address changes and not as much as a parking ticket sit and wait for months next to someone who couchsurfs, generates income via freelance work, and visited all of the 'stans and Iran for tourism whose application is approved in 72 hours.

The data points are still useful, however, to assess general trends in the timeline for renewals.