So effectively if I'm pretty sure I don't want the card anymore I should cancel before 1/14/23 to be able to get refunded?
You should cancel by 1/13 because that's 30 days from the 12/14 AF posting. So basically you have a 3 day cancelation window that is between 1/11 and 1/13 to comply with the 12 month rule for retention offers and the 30 day rule for getting the AF reversed.